2018 SIMULATED NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET 10.29.2018

Below is this week's simulated NCAA Tournament Bracket based on the actual results of games played through Sunday, October 28.  This simulation is a little different than previous ones, as it is four teams short of projecting the full field and instead lists eight teams that are candidates for the last four at large positions.  It does this because my system indicates that the eight teams are likely to be equal in the Committee's eyes, if the Committee holds to the patterns it has followed over the last 11 years.

Below the table, I've set out other possible seed candidates.

The Committee is going to have some decisions to make this year that appear much harder and likely to be more controversial than decisions it's had to make over the last 11 years.  They involve highly ranked teams that finished well down in their conference standings:

Mississippi State looks to finish about #19 in the RPI rankings, but finished tied for # 11-12 in the SEC.  Their Strength of Schedule rank likely will be #2.

North Carolina State looks to finish about #23 in the RPI rankings, but finished #11 in the ACC.

Wake Forest looks to finish about #26 in the RPI rankings, but finished tied for #9-10 in the ACC.  Their Strength of Schedule rank likely will be #1.

The simulation has all three of these teams getting at large selections.  In addition, it shows Princeton as the Ivy League champion and Automatic Qualifier.  If Penn ties or wins against Princeton next Sunday, then Princeton most likely will occupy an at large position and the eight "6.5" teams will be competing for 3 positions rather than 4.

For practical purposes, it appears that no teams outside the Top 60 are likely to be serious candidates for at large selections.

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded Automatic Qualifier
6 = at large selection
6.5 = in pool of essentially equal teams from which remaining at large spots must be filled
7 = Top 60 team not getting an at large selection
8 = Top 60+ team not eligible for at large selection due to record below 0.500
9 = Top 80 team that might compete for an at large selection if in the Top 60

NCAA Seed or Selection	Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank for Formation	Team for Formation
1	AQ	1	Stanford
1	AQ	2	Baylor
1	AQ	3	NorthCarolinaU
1	0	6	SouthernCalifornia
2	AQ	4	Georgetown
2	AQ	5	TennesseeU
2	0	8	TexasA&M
2	0	15	Vanderbilt
3	0	7	FloridaState
3	0	9	Duke
3	0	10	SantaClara
3	0	12	TexasU
4	0	11	VirginiaU
4	0	16	UCLA
4	0	17	WestVirginiaU
4	0	21	SouthCarolinaU
5	AQ	14	Memphis
5	AQ	18	PennState
5	AQ	22	GeorgeMason
5	0	24	Princeton
5	AQ	28	NorthTexas
5	AQ	33	Samford
5	AQ	41	LongBeachState
5	AQ	44	CentralArkansas
5	AQ	46	BYU
5	AQ	47	TennesseeMartin
5	AQ	55	Radford
5	AQ	56	Monmouth
5	AQ	64	Hofstra
5	AQ	72	Lipscomb
5	AQ	73	BallState
5	AQ	77	Milwaukee
5	AQ	85	Denver
5	AQ	89	Colgate
5	AQ	93	ColoradoCollege
5	AQ	94	TexasRGV
5	AQ	104	Albany
5	AQ	105	CentralConnecticut
5	AQ	110	TexasState
5	AQ	123	LoyolaChicago
5	AQ	128	WeberState
5	AQ	211	Grambling
6	0	13	SouthFlorida
6	0	19	MississippiState
6	0	20	TCU
6	0	23	NCState
6	0	25	BostonCollege
6	0	26	Auburn
6	0	27	KansasU
6	0	29	Rutgers
6	0	30	ArizonaU
6	0	31	WakeForest
6	0	32	ArkansasU
6	0	34	LSU
6	0	35	WashingtonState
6	0	37	TexasTech
6	0	38	MississippiU
6	0	40	ColoradoU
6	0	42	Butler
6	0	45	VirginiaTech
6.5	0	36	WisconsinU
6.5	0	39	ArizonaState
6.5	0	43	OhioState
6.5	0	48	Providence
6.5	0	50	Louisville
6.5	0	51	IllinoisU
6.5	0	53	NebraskaU
6.5	0	54	Pepperdine
7	0	49	Clemson
7	0	52	NorthwesternU
7	0	57	OklahomaState
7	0	58	OregonU
7	0	59	FloridaAtlantic
7	0	60	StJosephs

Other possible seeds:

#1:  Tennessee

#2:  Florida State, Duke, Virginia

#3:  Virginia, West Virginia, UCLA

#4:  South Florida, Memphis