-- My simulation has Princeton and Penn ending up tied in points atop the Ivy League. In this week's simulation, I've identified Princeton as getting the Ivy automatic qualifier spot. If they end up tied on points and Princeton is the AQ, Penn is not likely to get an at large selection. On the other hand, if they end up tied on points and Penn is the AQ, Princeton is likely to get an at large selection. If that occurs, then Arizona State, which is this week's "last team in," is not likely to get an at large selection.
-- The simulation has Wake Forest losing its last game of the regular season, to North Carolina. It also has North Carolina as the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament and Wake as the #5 seed, which means they meet again in the first round of the Tournament, with Wake losing. That gives Wake a record below 0.500, which means they cannot get an at large selection.
-- Below the bracket, I've indicated possible additional candidates for the different seed positions.
1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded Automatic Qualifier
6 = at large selection
7 = Top 60 team not getting an at large selection
8 = Top 60+ team not eligible for at large selection due to record below 0.500
9 = Top 80 team that might compete for an at large selection if in the Top 60
NCAA Seed or Selection | Automatic Qualifier | ARPI Rank for Formation | Team for Formation |
1 | AQ | 1 | Stanford |
1 | AQ | 4 | NorthCarolinaU |
1 | AQ | 2 | Baylor |
1 | 0 | 5 | SouthernCalifornia |
2 | 0 | 8 | TexasU |
2 | AQ | 3 | Georgetown |
2 | AQ | 7 | TennesseeU |
2 | 0 | 15 | Vanderbilt |
3 | AQ | 9 | SantaClara |
3 | 0 | 6 | FloridaState |
3 | 0 | 10 | Duke |
3 | 0 | 14 | WestVirginiaU |
4 | 0 | 11 | TexasA&M |
4 | 0 | 13 | VirginiaU |
4 | 0 | 18 | SouthCarolinaU |
4 | 0 | 12 | MississippiState |
5 | AQ | 16 | Memphis |
5 | AQ | 26 | Rutgers |
5 | AQ | 20 | NorthTexas |
5 | 0 | 23 | Princeton |
5 | AQ | 29 | GeorgeMason |
5 | AQ | 33 | LongBeachState |
5 | AQ | 35 | CentralArkansas |
5 | AQ | 36 | Samford |
5 | AQ | 43 | TennesseeMartin |
5 | AQ | 59 | Colgate |
5 | AQ | 51 | Monmouth |
5 | AQ | 50 | Radford |
5 | AQ | 75 | BoiseState |
5 | AQ | 100 | Denver |
5 | AQ | 108 | UMKC |
5 | AQ | 98 | CentralConnecticut |
5 | AQ | 136 | LoyolaChicago |
5 | AQ | 131 | WeberState |
5 | AQ | 68 | FloridaGulfCoast |
5 | AQ | 46 | Hofstra |
5 | AQ | 101 | UALR |
5 | AQ | 85 | BallState |
5 | AQ | 95 | Hartford |
5 | AQ | 86 | NorthernKentucky |
5 | AQ | 213 | Grambling |
6 | 0 | 17 | SouthFlorida |
6 | 0 | 30 | ArkansasU |
6 | 0 | 24 | BostonCollege |
6 | 0 | 22 | NCState |
6 | 0 | 21 | ArizonaU |
6 | 0 | 19 | UCLA |
6 | 0 | 25 | PennState |
6 | 0 | 27 | TCU |
6 | 0 | 28 | Auburn |
6 | 0 | 34 | ColoradoU |
6 | 0 | 32 | WisconsinU |
6 | 0 | 38 | KansasU |
6 | 0 | 40 | Butler |
6 | 0 | 42 | Pepperdine |
6 | 0 | 37 | Louisville |
6 | 0 | 39 | OhioState |
6 | 0 | 41 | Providence |
6 | 0 | 44 | WashingtonState |
6 | 0 | 45 | UAB |
6 | 0 | 47 | OklahomaState |
6 | 0 | 48 | NorthwesternU |
6 | 0 | 49 | LSU |
6 | 0 | 52 | ArizonaState |
7 | 0 | 56 | TexasTech |
7 | 0 | 54 | UCRiverside |
7 | 0 | 58 | IllinoisU |
7 | 0 | 53 | StJosephs |
7 | 0 | 55 | VirginiaTech |
7 | 0 | 60 | NebraskaU |
7 | 0 | 57 | SanFrancisco |
8 | 0 | 31 | WakeForest |
9 | 0 | 66 | Clemson |
Other possible seeds:
#1 -- Tennessee
#2 -- West Virginia, Duke, Texas A&M, Florida State, Virginia
#3 -- Texas A&M, Virginia, South Carolina, Arizona, Boston College, UCLA, South Florida
#4 -- Arizona, Boston College, UCLA, South Florida, Memphis, Rutgers
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