Monday, October 16, 2017

2017 RPI Ranks 10.16.2017

Below are teams' Adjusted RPI ranks based on all games played through Sunday, October 15.  In the columns to the left, I've indicated which teams, as of this point in the season, are potential #1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds.  I've also indicated which teams should be considered potential "bubble" teams.  The teams ranked better than the bubble should be considered "safe" for at large selection.  The teams ranked poorer than the bubble should be considered out of contention.  These seed and at large ranges are based on the last 10 years' experience as applied to the current version of the Adjusted RPI.

RPI Report 10.16.2017

2017 Simulated RPI Ranks 10.16.2017

Below are teams' simulated Adjusted RPI ranks for the entire season.  The simulation is based on:

  • the actual results of games played through Sunday, October 15;
  • simulated results of all games not yet played, with the simulated results based on teams' actual current Adjusted RPIs as adjusted for game locations; and
  • simulated conference tournaments and results.
We're now roughly 80% through the season (including conference tournament games), so the simulations are beginning to home in on where teams ultimately will end up.  There's always room for change, but the likelihood of dramatic change is diminishing.


Team ARPI Rank Conference
SouthCarolinaU 1 SEC
Stanford 2 PacTwelve
NorthCarolinaU 3 ACC
UCF 4 American
Duke 5 ACC
WestVirginiaU 6 BigTwelve
TennesseeU 7 SEC
UCLA 8 PacTwelve
PennState 9 BigTen
TexasU 10 BigTwelve
Princeton 11 Ivy
FloridaState 12 ACC
TexasA&M 13 SEC
Rutgers 14 BigTen
Pepperdine 15 WestCoast
OhioState 16 BigTen
MississippiU 17 SEC
MurrayState 18 OhioValley
CaliforniaU 19 PacTwelve
Cincinnati 20 American
Hofstra 21 Colonial
ArizonaU 22 PacTwelve
Rice 23 ConferenceUSA
FloridaGulfCoast 24 AtlanticSun
WakeForest 25 ACC
NotreDame 26 ACC
FloridaU 27 SEC
SouthFlorida 28 American
AlabamaU 29 SEC
VirginiaU 30 ACC
Auburn 31 SEC
WisconsinU 32 BigTen
SantaClara 33 WestCoast
StLouis 34 AtlanticTen
Georgetown 35 BigEast
Monmouth 36 MetroAtlantic
OklahomaState 37 BigTwelve
Memphis 38 American
WashingtonU 39 PacTwelve
SouthernCalifornia 40 PacTwelve
VirginiaTech 41 ACC
LSU 42 SEC
NorthwesternU 43 BigTen
Drake 44 MissouriValley
Butler 45 BigEast
Northeastern 46 Colonial
NCState 47 ACC
Drexel 48 Colonial
UCIrvine 49 BigWest
LoyolaMarymount 50 WestCoast
TCU 51 BigTwelve
UNLV 52 MountainWest
UAB 53 ConferenceUSA
Marquette 54 BigEast
Yale 55 Ivy
LaSalle 56 AtlanticTen
SanJoseState 57 MountainWest
MichiganU 58 BigTen
BostonCollege 59 ACC
MississippiState 60 SEC
ColoradoU 61 PacTwelve
UtahU 62 PacTwelve
Columbia 63 Ivy
KentState 64 MidAmerican
Navy 65 Patriot
MinnesotaU 66 BigTen
Baylor 67 BigTwelve
Clemson 68 ACC
SouthAlabama 69 SunBelt
Belmont 70 OhioValley
Purdue 71 BigTen
NewHampshireU 72 AmericaEast
NorthernKentucky 73 Horizon
Lamar 74 Southland
Furman 75 Southern
EasternWashington 76 BigSky
Xavier 77 BigEast
Milwaukee 78 Horizon
NebraskaU 79 BigTen
NorthTexas 80 ConferenceUSA
Gonzaga 81 WestCoast
Stetson 82 AtlanticSun
Providence 83 BigEast
LongBeachState 84 BigWest
MarylandU 85 BigTen
Duquesne 86 AtlanticTen
Vanderbilt 87 SEC
WashingtonState 88 PacTwelve
StJosephs 89 AtlanticTen
MontanaU 90 BigSky
Liberty 91 BigSouth
LouisianaTech 92 ConferenceUSA
BostonU 93 Patriot
ArkansasU 94 SEC
Brown 95 Ivy
TexasTech 96 BigTwelve
Bryant 97 Northeast
UNI 98 MissouriValley
SMU 99 American
KentuckyU 100 SEC
TennesseeTech 101 OhioValley
Louisville 102 ACC
Samford 103 Southern
KansasU 104 BigTwelve
StephenFAustin 105 Southland
NewMexicoU 106 MountainWest
BYU 107 WestCoast
CalStateFullerton 108 BigWest
Valparaiso 109 MissouriValley
EasternKentucky 110 OhioValley
Charlotte 111 ConferenceUSA
IowaU 112 BigTen
BallState 113 MidAmerican
IUPUI 114 Horizon
StonyBrook 115 AmericaEast
Pittsburgh 116 ACC
ArkansasState 117 SunBelt
HighPoint 118 BigSouth
NorthernColorado 119 BigSky
Lipscomb 120 AtlanticSun
Colgate 121 Patriot
Syracuse 122 ACC
DelawareU 123 Colonial
ArizonaState 124 PacTwelve
IndianaU 125 BigTen
LoyolaChicago 126 MissouriValley
SanDiegoState 127 MountainWest
TexasState 128 SunBelt
GeorgeWashington 129 AtlanticTen
Houston 130 American
Bucknell 131 Patriot
UCSantaBarbara 132 BigWest
NorthernIllinois 133 MidAmerican
OregonU 134 PacTwelve
ConnecticutU 135 American
McNeeseState 136 Southland
MichiganState 137 BigTen
CollegeofCharleston 138 Colonial
Dayton 139 AtlanticTen
Harvard 140 Ivy
Villanova 141 BigEast
GeorgiaU 142 SEC
SanFrancisco 143 WestCoast
William&Mary 144 Colonial
SouthDakotaState 145 Summit
AirForce 146 MountainWest
VCU 147 AtlanticTen
FresnoState 148 MountainWest
Binghamton 149 AmericaEast
Quinnipiac 150 MetroAtlantic
TexasRGV 151 WAC
UtahState 152 MountainWest
CalStateNorthridge 153 BigWest
GeorgiaSouthern 154 SunBelt
UNCGreensboro 155 Southern
Longwood 156 BigSouth
DePaul 157 BigEast
GeorgeMason 158 AtlanticTen
FairleighDickinson 159 Northeast
FloridaAtlantic 160 ConferenceUSA
JamesMadison 161 Colonial
AustinPeay 162 OhioValley
WrightState 163 Horizon
UALR 164 SunBelt
IllinoisState 165 MissouriValley
OldDominion 166 ConferenceUSA
Toledo 167 MidAmerican
SacramentoState 168 BigSky
Dartmouth 169 Ivy
MissouriU 170 SEC
KennesawState 171 AtlanticSun
SanDiegoU 172 WestCoast
Troy 173 SunBelt
Lehigh 174 Patriot
UNCWilmington 175 Colonial
SouthernMississippi 176 ConferenceUSA
Elon 177 Colonial
CentralArkansas 178 Southland
EastCarolina 179 American
BoiseState 180 MountainWest
NorthFlorida 181 AtlanticSun
WesternKentucky 182 ConferenceUSA
PennsylvaniaU 183 Ivy
WesternCarolina 184 Southern
Manhattan 185 MetroAtlantic
Radford 186 BigSouth
MassachusettsU 187 AtlanticTen
StFrancis 188 Northeast
WesternMichigan 189 MidAmerican
KansasState 190 BigTwelve
MiddleTennessee 191 ConferenceUSA
WyomingU 192 MountainWest
CoastalCarolina 193 SunBelt
BowlingGreen 194 MidAmerican
UCRiverside 195 BigWest
Siena 196 MetroAtlantic
ClevelandState 197 Horizon
OklahomaU 198 BigTwelve
Temple 199 American
MissouriState 200 MissouriValley
SoutheastMissouriState 201 OhioValley
MiamiFL 202 ACC
CentralConnecticut 203 Northeast
Cornell 204 Ivy
Buffalo 205 MidAmerican
AlabamaState 206 Southwestern
NewMexicoState 207 WAC
Grambling 208 Southwestern
OregonState 209 PacTwelve
IndianaState 210 MissouriValley
StJohns 211 BigEast
JacksonvilleState 212 OhioValley
HoustonBaptist 213 Southland
UMKC 214 WAC
Niagara 215 MetroAtlantic
ColoradoState 216 MountainWest
StMarys 217 WestCoast
TexasCorpusChristi 218 Southland
Campbell 219 BigSouth
NorthernArizona 220 BigSky
Marshall 221 ConferenceUSA
SIUEdwardsville 222 OhioValley
OhioU 223 MidAmerican
CalPoly 224 BigWest
IllinoisU 225 BigTen
Denver 226 Summit
SamHoustonState 227 Southland
ColoradoCollege 228 MountainWest
IowaState 229 BigTwelve
Hartford 230 AmericaEast
Towson 231 Colonial
UCDavis 232 BigWest
Tulsa 233 American
VermontU 234 AmericaEast
Mercer 235 Southern
Seattle 236 WAC
UMassLowell 237 AmericaEast
SacredHeart 238 Northeast
Fairfield 239 MetroAtlantic
UTSA 240 ConferenceUSA
EastTennesseeState 241 Southern
LouisianaLafayette 242 SunBelt
UtahValley 243 WAC
TennesseeMartin 244 OhioValley
AbileneChristian 245 Southland
Lafayette 246 Patriot
PortlandU 247 WestCoast
TexasSouthern 248 Southwestern
NJIT 249 AtlanticSun
Fordham 250 AtlanticTen
Howard 251 Southwestern
UTEP 252 ConferenceUSA
IdahoU 253 BigSky
AppalachianState 254 SunBelt
Creighton 255 BigEast
Pacific 256 WestCoast
MaineU 257 AmericaEast
Rider 258 MetroAtlantic
CentralMichigan 259 MidAmerican
CalStateBakersfield 260 WAC
NorthDakotaU 261 BigSky
UNCAsheville 262 BigSouth
Marist 263 MetroAtlantic
OralRoberts 264 Summit
WeberState 265 BigSky
IllinoisChicago 266 Horizon
Canisius 267 MetroAtlantic
HawaiiU 268 BigWest
Chattanooga 269 Southern
UNOmaha 270 Summit
NorthDakotaState 271 Summit
RhodeIslandU 272 AtlanticTen
Morehead 273 OhioValley
NorthwesternState 274 Southland
Richmond 275 AtlanticTen
GeorgiaState 276 SunBelt
EasternIllinois 277 OhioValley
HolyCross 278 Patriot
EasternMichigan 279 MidAmerican
USCUpstate 280 AtlanticSun
American 281 Patriot
CharlestonSouthern 282 BigSouth
SouthernUtah 283 BigSky
StBonaventure 284 AtlanticTen
PortlandState 285 BigSky
VMI 286 Southern
Albany 287 AmericaEast
GardnerWebb 288 BigSouth
SetonHall 289 BigEast
Evansville 290 MissouriValley
LouisianaMonroe 291 SunBelt
Wagner 292 Northeast
Army 293 Patriot
Akron 294 MidAmerican
NichollsState 295 Southland
Davidson 296 AtlanticTen
Winthrop 297 BigSouth
Presbyterian 298 BigSouth
IncarnateWord 299 Southland
SouthDakotaU 300 Summit
MississippiValley 301 Southwestern
LongIsland 302 Northeast
PrairieViewA&M 303 Southwestern
Wofford 304 Southern
YoungstownState 305 Horizon
GrandCanyon 306 WAC
UMBC 307 AmericaEast
MiamiOH 308 MidAmerican
SELouisiana 309 Southland
JacksonvilleU 310 AtlanticSun
Oakland 311 Horizon
Iona 312 MetroAtlantic
RobertMorris 313 Northeast
FIU 314 ConferenceUSA
IdahoState 315 BigSky
MountStMary 316 Northeast
Detroit 317 Horizon
NevadaU 318 MountainWest
AlcornState 319 Southwestern
LoyolaMD 320 Patriot
Citadel 321 Southern
WesternIllinois 322 Summit
StPeters 323 MetroAtlantic
JacksonState 324 Southwestern
GreenBay 325 Horizon
ArkansasPineBluff 326 Southwestern
SouthCarolinaState 327 Independent
IPFW 328 Summit
SouthernU 329 Southwestern
ChicagoState 330 WAC
DelawareState 331 Independent
AlabamaA&M 332 Southwestern
Hampton 333 Independent

2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulation 10.16.2017

Below are simulated seeds, unseeded automatic qualifiers, and at large selections for the NCAA Tournament.  The simulation is based on this week's simulated full season, including conference tournaments.  The simulation has Columbia and Princeton ending up tied at the top of the Ivy League.  Given that, I've selected Columbia as getting the Ivy League automatic qualifier position because (1) it has a head to head win over Princeton and (2) the simulation has Columbia with a better goal differential than Princeton against Ivy League opponents.  The other two conferences that don't have conference tournaments (Pac 12 and West Coast) have clear simulation champions.

EDIT:  There's one error in what you'll see below, due to a mistake I made in the Atlantic Sun's conference tournament.  (Setting up the conference tournaments requires a fair number of manual entries, which increases the opportunity for errors.)  The error has Lipscomb as the Atlantic Sun tournament champion, whereas it should be Florida Gulf Coast.  So, Lipscomb really should be out of the picture and FGCU should be the champion.  This, in turn, opens up a space for another at large selection.  It's a close call, but the right call looks like TCU.  So, add TCU to the at large selection list.

In the NCAA Seed or Selection column, the number code is:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded automatic qualifier
6 = unseeded at large selection
7 = top 60 team, but not getting an at large selection
8 = top 60 teams, but disqualified from at large selection due to below 0.500 winning percentage
9 = outside the top 60, but competitive for at large selection if within the top 60

At the bottom of the table, I've indicated other potential seeds.  The table covers the top 150 teams in the Adjusted RPI rankings.

NCAA Seed or Selection Automatic Qualifier ARPI Rank for Formation Team for Formation
1 AQ 1 SouthCarolinaU
1 AQ 2 Stanford
1 AQ 3 NorthCarolinaU
1 0 5 Duke
2 AQ 4 UCF
2 AQ 6 WestVirginiaU
2 0 7 TennesseeU
2 AQ 9 PennState
3 0 8 UCLA
3 0 11 Princeton
3 0 13 TexasA&M
3 0 16 OhioState
4 0 10 TexasU
4 0 12 FloridaState
4 0 20 Cincinnati
4 0 25 WakeForest
5 AQ 15 Pepperdine
5 AQ 18 MurrayState
5 AQ 21 Hofstra
5 AQ 23 Rice
5 AQ 34 StLouis
5 AQ 36 Monmouth
5 AQ 44 Drake
5 AQ 45 Butler
5 AQ 49 UCIrvine
5 AQ 52 UNLV
5 0 63 Columbia
5 AQ 64 KentState
5 AQ 69 SouthAlabama
5 AQ 72 NewHampshireU
5 AQ 73 NorthernKentucky
5 AQ 74 Lamar
5 AQ 75 Furman
5 AQ 76 EasternWashington
5 AQ 91 Liberty
5 AQ 97 Bryant
5 AQ 120 Lipscomb
5 AQ 145 SouthDakotaState
6 0 14 Rutgers
6 0 17 MississippiU
6 0 19 CaliforniaU
6 0 22 ArizonaU
6 0 24 FloridaGulfCoast
6 0 26 NotreDame
6 0 27 FloridaU
6 0 28 SouthFlorida
6 0 29 AlabamaU
6 0 30 VirginiaU
6 0 31 Auburn
6 0 32 WisconsinU
6 0 33 SantaClara
6 0 35 Georgetown
6 0 37 OklahomaState
6 0 38 Memphis
6 0 39 WashingtonU
6 0 40 SouthernCalifornia
6 0 41 VirginiaTech
6 0 42 LSU
6 0 43 NorthwesternU
6 0 46 Northeastern
6 0 47 NCState
6 0 55 Yale
7 0 48 Drexel
7 0 50 LoyolaMarymount
7 0 51 TCU
7 0 53 UAB
7 0 54 Marquette
7 0 56 LaSalle
7 0 57 SanJoseState
7 0 58 MichiganU
7 0 59 BostonCollege
7 0 60 MississippiState
9 0 61 ColoradoU
9 0 62 UtahU
9 0 71 Purdue
9 0 77 Xavier
0 65 Navy
0 66 MinnesotaU
0 67 Baylor
0 68 Clemson
0 70 Belmont
0 78 Milwaukee
0 79 NebraskaU
0 80 NorthTexas
0 81 Gonzaga
0 82 Stetson
0 83 Providence
0 84 LongBeachState
0 85 MarylandU
0 86 Duquesne
0 87 Vanderbilt
0 88 WashingtonState
0 89 StJosephs
0 90 MontanaU
0 92 LouisianaTech
0 93 BostonU
0 94 ArkansasU
0 95 Brown
0 96 TexasTech
0 98 UNI
0 99 SMU
0 100 KentuckyU
0 101 TennesseeTech
0 102 Louisville
0 103 Samford
0 104 KansasU
0 105 StephenFAustin
0 106 NewMexicoU
0 107 BYU
0 108 CalStateFullerton
0 109 Valparaiso
0 110 EasternKentucky
0 111 Charlotte
0 112 IowaU
0 113 BallState
0 114 IUPUI
0 115 StonyBrook
0 116 Pittsburgh
0 117 ArkansasState
0 118 HighPoint
0 119 NorthernColorado
0 121 Colgate
0 122 Syracuse
0 123 DelawareU
0 124 ArizonaState
0 125 IndianaU
0 126 LoyolaChicago
0 127 SanDiegoState
0 128 TexasState
0 129 GeorgeWashington
0 130 Houston
0 131 Bucknell
0 132 UCSantaBarbara
0 133 NorthernIllinois
0 134 OregonU
0 135 ConnecticutU
0 136 McNeeseState
0 137 MichiganState
0 138 CollegeofCharleston
0 139 Dayton
0 140 Harvard
0 141 Villanova
0 142 GeorgiaU
0 143 SanFrancisco
0 144 William&Mary
0 146 AirForce
0 147 VCU
0 148 FresnoState
0 149 Binghamton
0 150 Quinnipiac

Other potential seeds:

#1:  UCF, Tennessee, Penn State, UCLA, West Virginia
#2:  UCLA, Texas A&M
#3:  Texas, Florida State, Rutgers, Wake Forest, Cincinnati
#4:  Pepperdine, Rutgers, Florida, Mississippi, California