Wednesday, August 31, 2016

2016 Season Simulation: The Effects, for Conferences, of Game Locations and Less Than Full Round Robins

One of the things the 2016 Season Simulation has turned out to be good for is to illustrate, for conference standings, how conference game locations and conferences playing less than a full round robin can affect conference standings.  They can influence the standings so that a team that is better than another nevertheless ends up poorer in the conference standings.

The simulated 2016 standings for Virginia Tech and North Carolina, in the Atlantic Coast Conference, will show what I mean.  The ACC has 14 teams, but each team plays only 10 conference opponents for purposes of the conference regular season standings.

According to the Simulation, here are the 2016 ranks of the teams in the ACC:

1.5 Duke
1.5 Clemson
3.0 Florida State
4.0 Boston College
5.0 Virginia Tech
6.0 Virginia
7.0 North Carolina
8.0 Wake Forest
9.0 Louisville
10.0 Notre Dame
11.5 Syracuse
11.5 Miami FL
13.5 North Carolina State
13.5 Pittsburgh

Each rank has a rating assigned to it, based on the historic rating for that rank within the ACC.  When I apply those ratings to ACC conference games, after (1) adjusting the ratings for home field advantage, which is worth .0120, and (2) treating any game with an adjusted rating difference of 0.0134 or less as a tie (consistent with historic data), this year's conference competition ends up with Virginia Tech finishing #7 in the conference with 17 points, Virginia as #5 with 20 points, and North Carolina as #6 with 19 points.  The effect of this is that the three teams end up with different ACC conference tournament seeds than they would have had if the conference standings reflected the teams' simulated strength.

The question is, How could this happen?  With Virginia Tech and North Carolina as my examples, here are their simulated results:

Virginia Tech

v Virginia #6, away, tie,  Game location doesn't matter  1 point
v North Carolina #7, away, tie,  Game location changes a win to a tie  1 point
v Duke #1.5, home, loss, Game location doesn't matter
v Clemson #1.5, home, loss, Game location doesn't matter
v Syracuse #11.5, away, win, Game location doesn't matter  3 points
v Boston College #4, away, loss, Game location changes a tie to a loss
v Louisville #9, home, win, Game location doesn't matter  3 points
v Notre Dame #10, home, win,  Game location doesn't matter  3 points
v Miami FL, #11.5, away, win,  Game location doesn't matter  3 points
v Wake Forest #8, home, win,  Game location doesn't matter  3 points

If you count down the simulation ranks list, you'll see that the teams Virginia Tech does not play are #3, 13.5, and 13.5.

North Carolina

v North Carolina State #13.5, home, win, Game location doesn't matter  3 points
v Virginia Tech #5, home, tie, Game location changes a loss to a tie  1 point
v Clemson #1.5, away, loss, Game location doesn't matter
v Virginia #6, away, loss, Game location changes a tie to a loss
v Miami FL #11.5, home, win, Game location doesn't matter,  3 points
v Wake Forest #8, home, win, Game location doesn't matter,  3 points
v Notre Dame #10, away, win, Game location doesn't matter,  3 points
v Pittsburgh #13.5, away, win, Game location doesn't matter,  3 points
v Syracuse #11.5, away, win, Game location doesn't matter,  3 points
v Florida State #3, home, loss, Game location doesn't matter

North Carolina does not play the #1.5, 4, and 9 teams in the conference.

Thus, in relation to North Carolina, Virginia Tech is hurt by both game locations and the assignment of opponents.  Virginia Tech loses 3 points due to game locations whereas North Carolina comes out even.  Virginia Tech doesn't play the #3, 13.5, and 13.5 teams in the conference, whereas North Carolina doesn't play the #1.5, 4, and 9 teams.

The bottom line for conferences is that game locations and playing less than a full round robin can skew conference standings so that they may not reflect the actual strength of the conference's teams.

2016 Season Simulation: Important Limitation to Keep in MInd

When you're looking at the 2016 Season Simulation, there's an important limitation to keep in mind.

An underlying assumption in the simulation is that, if Team A's simulated rating is more than 0.0134 higher than Team B's rating, then when they play each other Team A will win.  In real life, however, it doesn't work that way.  There are significant numbers of upsets.  As a result of this, it is likely, on average, that teams the simulation shows with really good records won't have records that good -- they'll end up losing some of the games the simulation says they will win.  Likewise, teams the simulation shows with really poor records likely won't have records that poor -- they'll likely win some of the games the simulation says they will lose.  Similarly, some of the simulated ties will be win/loss games; and some of the simulated win/loss games will be ties.  On the other hand, teams in the 50-50 win/loss area may well end up right about there, on average -- they likely will lose some games they should win, but the also likely will win about the same number of games they should lose.

On average, this won't affect teams from the power conferences and stronger teams from the mid-majors the same way.  Looking, say, at the top 100 teams in the Simulation, the teams from mid-major conferences tend to rely on their own high winning percentages in achieving their high rankings, as distinguished from their strengths of schedule.  On the other hand, teams from the power conferences tend to rely on their high strengths of schedule, as distinguished from their winning percentages.  In other words, in the Simulation, top 100 mid-major teams are going to have a lot more wins than losses, as compared to top 100 teams from the power conferences.  Since the mid-major teams have significantly more Simulation wins than losses, the actuality of upsets will erode their winning percentages significantly; whereas since the power conference teams do not have such one-sided Simulation win/loss records, the actuality of upsets will not erode their winning percentages as much and their rankings aren't as dependent on their win/loss records anyway.  Here's an example of what I mean, from the Week 2 Update, using an assumed upset rate of 25%:

Kent State, #44 in the simulation, has a simulated final record of 20-1-0.  In actuality, their record is likely to be 15.25-5.75-0, which rounds off to 15-6-0.

Kentucky, #45 in the simulation, has a simulated final record of 8-7-5.  In actuality, depending on how I treat simulated ties, Kentucky's actual record is likely to round off to either 8-7-5 or 8-8-4.

Kentucky's strength of schedule is much better than Kent State's.  Thus once the games actually are played, Kent State is likely to drop well below Kentucky in the rankings, instead of being above them.

What this means, especially as you look at the early updates of the simulation, is that the simulation rates the stronger mid-major teams significantly higher than they are likely to be rated once they've actually played their games.  So, you're likely to see them dropping down in the rankings, as I do new simulation updates from week to week.  On the other hand, for the power conference teams, especially those in the 30+ ranking area, you're likely to see them stay more in place or even rise in the rankings to fill spaces previously occupied by mid-majors.

There's another simple illustration of this that uses past seasons' experience:  The the 2016 Season Simulation: Week 2 Update shows 22 Automatic Qualifiers (conference champions) among the top 60 teams in the rankings.  On the other hand, the average number of Automatic Qualifiers among the top 60 teams, over the past nine years, has been 15.44, with the highest number in any year being 18.  Thus as actual results occur, some of the currently simulated Automatic Qualifiers in the top 60 are going to drop down out of the top 60 rankings.


Tuesday, August 30, 2016

2016 Season NCAA Bracket Simulation: Week 2 Update

Using the 2016 Season Simulation: Week 2 Update from my previous post, I've applied my bracket formation system to those simulated data to come up with Week 2 simulated automatic qualifiers, at large selections, and seeds for the NCAA Tournament bracket.  My system simply compares teams' information to (1) standards as to which, if met, the team always has gotten a particular seed or an at large selection and (2) standards as to which, if met, the team never has gotten a particular seed or at large selection.  It's strictly a data-driven system.  It simply says, "If the Women's Soccer Committee is going to be consistent with all of its decisions over the last nine years, here's what it will do."  (The Committee isn't required to be consistent.)

Here's what the system comes up with following Week 2.  The code for the NCAA Seed or Selection column is as follows:

1 = #1 seed

2 = #2 seed

3 = #3 seed

4 = #4 seed

5 = automatic qualifier

6 = at large selection (that is not seeded)

7 = next in line for at large selection

Here it is:

NCAA Seed or Selection Automatic Qualifier ARPI Rank Team
1 AQ 1 Stanford
1 5 Clemson
1 AQ 3 FloridaU
1 AQ 4 WestVirginiaU
2 AQ 2 Duke
2 9 FloridaState
2 7 UCLA
2 8 Auburn
3 11 SouthernCalifornia
3 AQ 6 ConnecticutU
3 13 BostonCollege
3 AQ 10 WisconsinU
4 21 Rutgers
4 25 CaliforniaU
4 AQ 15 BYU
4 20 PennState
5 AQ 17 Georgetown
5 AQ 22 LongBeachState
5 AQ 23 Harvard
5 AQ 14 Rice
5 AQ 26 Northeastern
5 AQ 31 SanDiegoState
5 AQ 57 Drake
5 AQ 36 BostonU
5 AQ 35 SouthAlabama
5 AQ 44 Rider
5 AQ 42 KentState
5 AQ 51 SoutheastMissouriState
5 AQ 48 Samford
5 AQ 56 Seattle
5 AQ 60 HighPoint
5 AQ 74 IdahoU
5 AQ 81 Albany
5 AQ 83 StephenFAustin
5 AQ 87 FloridaGulfCoast
5 AQ 88 Milwaukee
5 AQ 98 Dayton
5 AQ 131 StFrancis
5 AQ 142 NorthDakotaState
5 AQ 209 JacksonState
6 18 TexasA&M
6 16 VirginiaTech
6 19 OklahomaState
6 27 VirginiaU
6 24 MinnesotaU
6 12 Memphis
6 30 LSU
6 28 WashingtonState
6 33 ArizonaU
6 38 Pepperdine
6 32 GeorgiaU
6 29 TexasTech
6 39 SantaClara
6 52 ArizonaState
6 47 GeorgeWashington
6 54 PortlandU
6 43 SouthCarolinaU
6 45 KentuckyU
6 55 Baylor
6 46 Hofstra
6 40 OhioState
6 50 WashingtonU
7 34 UCF
7 37 Princeton
7 41 Tulsa
7 49 NorthCarolinaU
7 53 NebraskaU

Monday, August 29, 2016

2016 Season Simulation: Week 2 Update

This Week 2 Update to the 2016 Season Simulation is a hybrid of (1) the actual results of the games played from the beginning of the season through Sunday, August 28 and (2) my simulated results for the balance of the season (including simulated conference tournaments).

Team Conference Adjusted RPI ARPI Rank Total Wins Total Losses Total Ties
Stanford PacTwelve 0.7402 1 18 0 1
Duke ACC 0.7256 2 18 1 2
FloridaU SEC 0.7213 3 20 1 0
WestVirginiaU BigTwelve 0.7149 4 19 1 1
Clemson ACC 0.7135 5 18 1 2
ConnecticutU American 0.6872 6 20 2 0
UCLA PacTwelve 0.6829 7 13 3 3
Auburn SEC 0.6824 8 15 2 3
FloridaState ACC 0.6756 9 16 3 1
SouthernCalifornia PacTwelve 0.6679 10 15 2 2
WisconsinU BigTen 0.6637 11 17 2 3
Memphis American 0.6629 12 15 3 3
BostonCollege ACC 0.6575 13 15 3 3
Rice ConferenceUSA 0.6564 14 16 2 1
BYU WestCoast 0.6546 15 18 1 0
VirginiaTech ACC 0.6543 16 14 4 2
Georgetown BigEast 0.6539 17 16 2 2
TexasA&M SEC 0.6503 18 15 4 2
OklahomaState BigTwelve 0.6460 19 17 3 2
PennState BigTen 0.6454 20 12 5 3
Rutgers BigTen 0.6446 21 13 1 5
LongBeachState BigWest 0.6414 22 15 2 3
Harvard Ivy 0.6402 23 13 2 1
MinnesotaU BigTen 0.6354 24 18 3 1
CaliforniaU PacTwelve 0.6345 25 16 3 1
Northeastern Colonial 0.6344 26 16 3 2
VirginiaU ACC 0.6332 27 13 3 3
WashingtonState PacTwelve 0.6331 28 13 6 0
TexasTech BigTwelve 0.6228 29 13 4 3
LSU SEC 0.6213 30 14 5 2
SanDiegoState MountainWest 0.6170 31 16 2 2
GeorgiaU SEC 0.6169 32 9 8 2
ArizonaU PacTwelve 0.6133 33 11 5 3
SouthAlabama SunBelt 0.6122 34 17 2 2
Princeton Ivy 0.6114 35 12 2 3
UCF American 0.6113 36 12 6 2
BostonU Patriot 0.6110 37 13 5 3
Pepperdine WestCoast 0.6071 38 15 3 1
SantaClara WestCoast 0.6063 39 12 7 0
Rider MetroAtlantic 0.6057 40 17 1 1
OhioState BigTen 0.6056 41 11 8 2
SouthCarolinaU SEC 0.6053 42 12 6 1
Tulsa American 0.6051 43 13 6 2
KentState MidAmerican 0.6044 44 20 1 0
KentuckyU SEC 0.6006 45 8 7 5
Hofstra Colonial 0.5998 46 14 4 2
Samford Southern 0.5971 47 13 4 4
GeorgeWashington AtlanticTen 0.5958 48 16 2 4
NorthCarolinaU ACC 0.5952 49 9 7 2
WashingtonU PacTwelve 0.5939 50 10 7 3
SoutheastMissouriState OhioValley 0.5923 51 18 1 0
ArizonaState PacTwelve 0.5896 52 9 7 3
NebraskaU BigTen 0.5892 53 10 8 2
Baylor BigTwelve 0.5833 54 12 6 2
PortlandU WestCoast 0.5828 55 14 4 1
Seattle WAC 0.5822 56 14 2 4
Drake MissouriValley 0.5815 57 16 1 3
CoastalCarolina SunBelt 0.5812 58 15 3 3
WesternKentucky ConferenceUSA 0.5807 59 14 5 2
HighPoint BigSouth 0.5798 60 16 4 1
BallState MidAmerican 0.5784 61 18 2 2
MississippiU SEC 0.5777 62 8 8 5
WakeForest ACC 0.5769 63 12 7 0
UCSantaBarbara BigWest 0.5756 64 17 2 2
NorthTexas ConferenceUSA 0.5728 65 16 1 4
JamesMadison Colonial 0.5728 66 12 6 2
William&Mary Colonial 0.5723 67 13 4 3
Siena MetroAtlantic 0.5711 68 13 3 4
UNCWilmington Colonial 0.5709 69 11 3 6
StJohns BigEast 0.5708 70 12 4 4
Colgate Patriot 0.5707 71 12 3 5
WyomingU MountainWest 0.5699 72 15 3 3
IdahoU BigSky 0.5689 73 16 2 2
UtahU PacTwelve 0.5685 74 10 9 1
Marquette BigEast 0.5675 75 12 8 1
StJosephs AtlanticTen 0.5673 76 14 3 4
Furman Southern 0.5671 77 12 0 6
Navy Patriot 0.5661 78 14 5 3
Yale Ivy 0.5661 79 9 4 3
OklahomaU BigTwelve 0.5648 80 8 9 3
Columbia Ivy 0.5623 81 9 4 4
Albany AmericaEast 0.5612 82 15 3 1
Cincinnati American 0.5610 83 10 8 2
StephenFAustin Southland 0.5606 84 14 2 3
TCU BigTwelve 0.5593 85 11 6 1
MontanaU BigSky 0.5556 86 13 3 5
FloridaGulfCoast AtlanticSun 0.5547 87 16 3 0
Milwaukee Horizon 0.5542 88 15 3 2
Buffalo MidAmerican 0.5541 89 12 5 4
NorthwesternU BigTen 0.5535 90 12 5 2
Liberty BigSouth 0.5534 91 13 7 1
NewHampshireU AmericaEast 0.5516 92 11 5 3
Syracuse ACC 0.5501 93 7 7 5
UtahState MountainWest 0.5477 94 11 7 3
AlabamaU SEC 0.5476 95 8 6 5
CalStateFullerton BigWest 0.5474 96 12 6 1
Dayton AtlanticTen 0.5469 97 17 3 2
TennesseeU SEC 0.5464 98 7 10 2
LouisianaLafayette SunBelt 0.5452 99 14 4 2
Butler BigEast 0.5434 100 16 4 1
MichiganU BigTen 0.5430 101 6 4 8
MissouriU SEC 0.5410 102 9 6 4
Providence BigEast 0.5407 103 8 10 2
FloridaAtlantic ConferenceUSA 0.5399 104 11 6 3
CalPoly BigWest 0.5398 105 9 8 3
Brown Ivy 0.5391 106 9 4 3
UTEP ConferenceUSA 0.5357 107 10 4 8
Monmouth MetroAtlantic 0.5349 108 13 3 4
IowaState BigTwelve 0.5347 109 5 11 3
Hartford AmericaEast 0.5346 110 12 4 3
SacramentoState BigSky 0.5344 111 14 3 2
EastCarolina American 0.5342 112 9 8 3
SanJoseState MountainWest 0.5332 113 9 7 5
IowaU BigTen 0.5322 114 11 6 2
OregonU PacTwelve 0.5321 115 5 12 3
EastTennesseeState Southern 0.5318 116 14 2 4
Morehead OhioValley 0.5315 117 14 5 3
ArkansasU SEC 0.5314 118 5 11 3
SouthFlorida American 0.5304 119 8 6 4
Lipscomb AtlanticSun 0.5303 120 13 4 2
NotreDame ACC 0.5301 121 7 10 1
Louisville ACC 0.5295 122 7 8 3
GeorgeMason AtlanticTen 0.5293 123 12 7 2
Troy SunBelt 0.5289 124 10 6 4
Cornell Ivy 0.5272 125 4 7 5
DePaul BigEast 0.5268 126 9 9 1
UMKC WAC 0.5263 127 13 3 5
Fordham AtlanticTen 0.5259 128 9 8 3
CentralMichigan MidAmerican 0.5253 129 13 5 3
Manhattan MetroAtlantic 0.5252 130 11 6 2
Bucknell Patriot 0.5225 131 9 6 4
StFrancis Northeast 0.5219 132 15 5 1
UALR SunBelt 0.5209 133 10 9 1
TexasState SunBelt 0.5197 134 10 6 4
WesternMichigan MidAmerican 0.5194 135 12 4 4
DelawareU Colonial 0.5192 136 6 10 3
OregonState PacTwelve 0.5186 137 5 11 4
TexasU BigTwelve 0.5166 138 6 10 3
AbileneChristian Southland 0.5145 139 10 7 4
SELouisiana Southland 0.5138 140 12 5 4
UNCGreensboro Southern 0.5138 141 8 9 3
NorthDakotaState Summit 0.5120 142 12 5 2
CalStateNorthridge BigWest 0.5119 143 8 8 4
SMU American 0.5118 144 6 11 2
Longwood BigSouth 0.5110 145 9 7 4
IllinoisU BigTen 0.5102 146 8 10 1
LaSalle AtlanticTen 0.5098 147 7 7 5
Marshall ConferenceUSA 0.5081 148 6 7 5
CentralArkansas Southland 0.5074 149 13 4 3
EasternWashington BigSky 0.5066 150 13 4 4
HoustonBaptist Southland 0.5065 151 11 8 1
Charlotte ConferenceUSA 0.5059 152 8 8 3
MiamiFL ACC 0.5034 153 6 9 3
UCIrvine BigWest 0.5029 154 11 6 3
NorthernIllinois MidAmerican 0.5024 155 7 9 3
Radford BigSouth 0.5022 156 8 5 5
MichiganState BigTen 0.5017 157 7 10 1
Campbell BigSouth 0.5003 158 12 4 3
FresnoState MountainWest 0.4996 159 9 6 5
MurrayState OhioValley 0.4991 160 9 5 5
Mercer Southern 0.4986 161 8 8 4
Vanderbilt SEC 0.4984 162 5 11 2
Lafayette Patriot 0.4965 163 9 6 4
SanFrancisco WestCoast 0.4963 164 7 10 2
NewMexicoU MountainWest 0.4959 165 10 7 3
IllinoisChicago Horizon 0.4944 166 12 4 4
Elon Colonial 0.4940 167 8 10 1
KansasU BigTwelve 0.4935 168 4 13 1
OldDominion ConferenceUSA 0.4929 169 4 10 4
HawaiiU BigWest 0.4923 170 8 7 2
Denver Summit 0.4919 171 10 6 4
GrandCanyon WAC 0.4902 172 9 8 3
MiddleTennessee ConferenceUSA 0.4897 173 7 9 1
Purdue BigTen 0.4896 174 3 14 1
Duquesne AtlanticTen 0.4894 175 9 8 3
LouisianaTech ConferenceUSA 0.4882 176 12 6 3
Richmond AtlanticTen 0.4880 177 9 10 1
Gonzaga WestCoast 0.4871 178 5 10 4
AustinPeay OhioValley 0.4871 179 10 8 2
VermontU AmericaEast 0.4867 180 6 6 6
UtahValley WAC 0.4847 181 10 8 2
IndianaU BigTen 0.4846 182 2 13 4
AppalachianState SunBelt 0.4836 183 7 11 1
NCState ACC 0.4831 184 3 14 1
BoiseState MountainWest 0.4810 185 5 9 6
Howard Southwestern 0.4802 186 12 4 5
JacksonvilleU AtlanticSun 0.4802 187 6 9 2
Creighton BigEast 0.4799 188 8 8 2
KennesawState AtlanticSun 0.4799 189 11 5 3
LoyolaMD Patriot 0.4795 190 6 7 5
LoyolaChicago MissouriValley 0.4786 191 8 9 2
CentralConnecticut Northeast 0.4780 192 9 11 1
ColoradoCollege MountainWest 0.4774 193 8 8 3
PennsylvaniaU Ivy 0.4772 194 8 6 2
SanDiegoU WestCoast 0.4747 195 4 12 3
Towson Colonial 0.4741 196 1 13 5
Quinnipiac MetroAtlantic 0.4728 197 9 6 3
TennesseeMartin OhioValley 0.4705 198 8 8 3
Houston American 0.4698 199 7 9 1
McNeeseState Southland 0.4696 200 10 7 2
MississippiState SEC 0.4695 201 2 15 1
Drexel Colonial 0.4693 202 5 10 3
Dartmouth Ivy 0.4677 203 5 10 1
BowlingGreen MidAmerican 0.4676 204 8 9 3
NorthernColorado BigSky 0.4675 205 9 9 2
Marist MetroAtlantic 0.4674 206 10 7 2
SouthernUtah BigSky 0.4673 207 6 9 2
NorthernKentucky Horizon 0.4671 208 10 6 3
Villanova BigEast 0.4669 209 4 13 1
GeorgiaState SunBelt 0.4655 210 5 10 2
StonyBrook AmericaEast 0.4635 211 5 11 5
JacksonState Southwestern 0.4630 212 11 6 4
Evansville MissouriValley 0.4625 213 5 11 3
TennesseeTech OhioValley 0.4617 214 9 10 1
MarylandU BigTen 0.4615 215 3 14 2
StMarys WestCoast 0.4598 216 2 14 4
Belmont OhioValley 0.4590 217 5 10 3
CharlestonSouthern BigSouth 0.4584 218 8 8 3
Citadel Southern 0.4584 219 10 8 2
SouthDakotaState Summit 0.4572 220 9 9 1
Wofford Southern 0.4566 221 9 10 0
GeorgiaSouthern SunBelt 0.4555 222 4 10 4
Valparaiso Horizon 0.4552 223 10 9 1
OralRoberts Summit 0.4548 224 7 11 2
StLouis AtlanticTen 0.4531 225 7 9 3
FIU ConferenceUSA 0.4529 226 3 9 5
UMBC AmericaEast 0.4523 227 6 10 2
Temple American 0.4518 228 6 12 1
MissouriState MissouriValley 0.4508 229 6 9 4
LoyolaMarymount WestCoast 0.4500 230 2 16 1
Toledo MidAmerican 0.4489 231 6 10 3
AlabamaState Southwestern 0.4472 232 10 6 5
IllinoisState MissouriValley 0.4465 233 11 9 1
UTSA ConferenceUSA 0.4458 234 4 14 1
UCRiverside BigWest 0.4431 235 2 12 5
CollegeofCharleston Colonial 0.4431 236 3 12 4
ColoradoU PacTwelve 0.4425 237 2 16 2
SouthernMississippi ConferenceUSA 0.4425 238 7 9 2
Army Patriot 0.4419 239 4 12 2
MiamiOH MidAmerican 0.4416 240 4 13 2
MassachusettsU AtlanticTen 0.4410 241 5 12 1
Pittsburgh ACC 0.4408 242 1 15 2
Fairfield MetroAtlantic 0.4407 243 5 12 1
ArkansasState SunBelt 0.4391 244 2 12 3
Pacific WestCoast 0.4388 245 1 14 2
IUPUI Summit 0.4368 246 8 9 2
NorthwesternState Southland 0.4357 247 5 10 2
WeberState BigSky 0.4343 248 5 11 1
MaineU AmericaEast 0.4342 249 6 7 2
RhodeIslandU AtlanticTen 0.4335 250 2 12 5
SetonHall BigEast 0.4334 251 2 15 1
UNCAsheville BigSouth 0.4330 252 9 11 0
Oakland Horizon 0.4308 253 7 10 1
NorthFlorida AtlanticSun 0.4289 254 3 11 3
LouisianaMonroe SunBelt 0.4241 255 2 14 2
IncarnateWord Southland 0.4224 256 4 12 1
PortlandState BigSky 0.4216 257 5 11 2
YoungstownState Horizon 0.4197 258 7 9 2
NJIT AtlanticSun 0.4193 259 5 11 2
VMI Southern 0.4179 260 7 13 0
UCDavis BigWest 0.4179 261 1 14 3
Wagner Northeast 0.4155 262 9 9 1
Akron MidAmerican 0.4154 263 4 12 3
MississippiValley Southwestern 0.4145 264 7 7 3
American Patriot 0.4144 265 3 13 3
Davidson AtlanticTen 0.4143 266 2 14 3
NevadaU MountainWest 0.4142 267 3 13 2
CalStateBakersfield WAC 0.4137 268 4 14 2
VCU AtlanticTen 0.4121 269 4 15 0
EasternMichigan MidAmerican 0.4119 270 3 15 1
Presbyterian BigSouth 0.4105 271 3 10 3
SamHoustonState Southland 0.4084 272 5 12 2
LongIsland Northeast 0.4081 273 5 13 1
Xavier BigEast 0.4072 274 2 14 3
UNLV MountainWest 0.4070 275 4 14 2
StBonaventure AtlanticTen 0.4063 276 2 13 4
AirForce MountainWest 0.4062 277 5 10 3
Bryant Northeast 0.4044 278 6 7 5
EasternKentucky OhioValley 0.4043 279 5 11 2
UAB ConferenceUSA 0.4024 280 1 15 1
SouthDakotaU Summit 0.4014 281 5 13 1
ClevelandState Horizon 0.3990 282 6 10 1
IndianaState MissouriValley 0.3982 283 5 12 1
Lamar Southland 0.3979 284 2 14 3
Winthrop BigSouth 0.3975 285 2 13 3
JacksonvilleState OhioValley 0.3973 286 2 16 2
Stetson AtlanticSun 0.3960 287 2 11 3
OhioU MidAmerican 0.3944 288 1 15 2
Lehigh Patriot 0.3925 289 3 13 1
ColoradoState MountainWest 0.3921 290 3 15 1
NorthDakotaU BigSky 0.3904 291 3 13 2
Iona MetroAtlantic 0.3893 292 2 14 2
Chattanooga Southern 0.3886 293 2 17 0
Canisius MetroAtlantic 0.3879 294 3 13 0
UNOmaha Summit 0.3854 295 5 13 1
Binghamton AmericaEast 0.3852 296 1 13 4
NichollsState Southland 0.3848 297 4 11 1
WrightState Horizon 0.3840 298 2 15 1
UNI MissouriValley 0.3840 299 4 9 3
TexasSouthern Southwestern 0.3837 300 3 9 3
PrairieViewA&M Southwestern 0.3833 301 4 10 3
HolyCross Patriot 0.3818 302 2 15 0
Niagara MetroAtlantic 0.3776 303 4 11 2
FairleighDickinson Northeast 0.3759 304 1 16 3
AlabamaA&M Southwestern 0.3751 305 4 12 3
IdahoState BigSky 0.3750 306 2 17 0
SacredHeart Northeast 0.3745 307 5 10 3
TexasRGV WAC 0.3718 308 7 9 1
GardnerWebb BigSouth 0.3714 309 1 12 6
WesternCarolina Southern 0.3691 310 1 18 0
SIUEdwardsville OhioValley 0.3650 311 2 13 3
KansasState Independent 0.3598 312 1 14 1
ArkansasPineBluff Southwestern 0.3575 313 3 12 1
NorthernArizona BigSky 0.3573 314 2 16 1
Detroit Horizon 0.3554 315 2 13 1
UMassLowell AmericaEast 0.3542 316 0 13 4
MountStMary Northeast 0.3477 317 3 12 3
USCUpstate AtlanticSun 0.3441 318 0 15 2
TexasCorpusChristi Southland 0.3380 319 1 17 1
IPFW Summit 0.3344 320 1 16 1
WesternIllinois Summit 0.3331 321 1 15 1
AlcornState Southwestern 0.3302 322 2 10 0
GreenBay Horizon 0.3291 323 0 15 1
SouthCarolinaState Independent 0.3269 324 1 13 1
StPeters MetroAtlantic 0.3269 325 1 14 1
NewMexicoState WAC 0.3188 326 0 17 1
RobertMorris Northeast 0.3120 327 0 15 3
EasternIllinois OhioValley 0.3111 328 1 16 0
ChicagoState WAC 0.3079 329 0 15 1
SouthernU Southwestern 0.3006 330 0 14 2
Hampton Independent 0.2842 331 2 5 1
Grambling Southwestern 0.2725 332 0 10 1
DelawareState Independent 0.2635 333 0 16 0