Thursday, August 10, 2017

Simulated Bracket for the 2017 Season - Pre-Season

Below are simulated #1, #2, #3, and #4 seeds, unseeded Automatic Qualifiers (conference champions, but not including those ranked poorer than 150), and simulated at large selections for the 2017 NCAA Tournament.  In the second preceding post, I explain the system I use to produce the simulation.  In the immediately preceding post, I set out all the teams with their simulated rankings.

[NOTE: If you are really serious about understanding how the bracket simulation system works, go to NCAA Tournament: Predicting the Bracket, Track Your Team at the RPI for Division I Women's Soccer website, read that page, and then follow the instructions for using the 2017 Website Factor Workbook Preseason attached at the bottom of the page.]

As I wrote in the introduction to the preceding post, the simulated rankings and related data tend to have mid-major teams ranked better than they really will be  at the end of the season and many major conference teams ranked poorer than they will be.  This shows up in the NCAA Tournament simulation, especially in the at large selections.  Over the course of the season, as I substitute actual game results into the system in place of simulated game results, this problem gradually will correct itself.

A good way to see this problem with the simulation is to look at the number of Automatic Qualifiers in the Top 60 teams, which ultimately will be the pool of teams the Women's Soccer Committee likely will look at for at large selections.  The simulation shows 22 Automatic Qualifiers among the Top 60 teams.  Over the last 10 years, however, the average number of Automatic Qualifiers in the Top 60 has been 15.5, and the numbers have been quite consistent.  Thus the simulation likely has 6 to 7 more Automatic Qualifiers among the Top 60 than actually will be there.  And, looking at where the Automatic Qualifiers fall within the Top 60, all of the "interlopers" are from conferences other than the major conferences.

The table below covers the top 150 teams and shows:

  • In the NCAA Seed or Selection column, how the teams would fare with the Women's Soccer Committee if the Committee were using the simulated season data and were making decisions consistent with the ones it's made over the last 10 years. A "1" means the team gets a #1 seed; a "2" means a #2 seed; a "3" means a #3 seed; a "4" means a #4 seed; a "5" means the team is an unseeded Automatic Qualifier ranked within the Top 150; a "6" means the team gets an at large selection; a "7" means the team is in the Top 60 but does not get an at large selection; and a blank means the team is outside the Top 60 and does not get an at large selection.
  • In the Automatic Qualifier column, the simulated conference champions (other than those outside the Top 150).
  • In the ARPI Rank for Formation column, the teams' ARPI ranks.
  • In the Teams for Formation column, the teams.
The teams within each numbered group are sorted in a way that helps place the teams that do not get an at large selection in close to the order in which they would come next in line for a selection.

At the bottom of the table, I'll indicate which teams likely would be next in line for seeds and at large selections.

NCAA Seed or Selection Automatic Qualifier ARPI Rank for Formation Team for Formation
1 AQ 1 FloridaState
1 AQ 4 Stanford
1 0 2 NorthCarolinaU
1 AQ 3 WestVirginiaU
2 0 6 VirginiaU
2 AQ 5 FloridaU
2 0 8 NotreDame
2 0 7 UCLA
3 AQ 9 PennState
3 0 14 TexasA&M
3 0 13 Rutgers
3 0 10 SouthCarolinaU
4 AQ 11 Marquette
4 0 12 BostonCollege
4 AQ 15 UCF
4 0 18 SouthernCalifornia
5 AQ 16 BostonU
5 AQ 20 SantaClara
5 AQ 22 SouthAlabama
5 AQ 46 Samford
5 AQ 24 Northeastern
5 AQ 44 StephenFAustin
5 AQ 39 Harvard
5 AQ 40 LaSalle
5 AQ 35 SanDiegoState
5 AQ 38 NorthTexas
5 AQ 47 Buffalo
5 AQ 42 LongBeachState
5 AQ 51 MurrayState
5 AQ 50 Liberty
5 AQ 55 FloridaGulfCoast
5 AQ 64 Monmouth
5 AQ 81 WrightState
5 AQ 112 Denver
5 AQ 124 Albany
5 AQ 73 IllinoisState
5 AQ 95 FairleighDickinson
5 AQ 141 Seattle
6 0 28 Duke
6 0 19 VirginiaTech
6 0 25 Georgetown
6 0 17 ConnecticutU
6 0 21 CaliforniaU
6 0 37 BYU
6 0 26 OhioState
6 0 30 WisconsinU
6 0 31 OklahomaState
6 0 23 Auburn
6 0 33 TexasTech
6 0 29 Princeton
6 0 27 Baylor
6 0 48 WakeForest
6 0 32 TennesseeU
6 0 34 Troy
6 0 36 Memphis
6 0 49 Hofstra
6 0 41 WashingtonState
6 0 52 IllinoisU
6 0 43 William&Mary
6 0 57 PortlandU
6 0 53 Pepperdine
6 0 45 Rice
7 0 56 Clemson
7 0 58 KansasU
7 0 60 MiamiOH
7 0 59 SouthFlorida
7 0 54 Dayton
0 74 UNLV
0 96 MiamiFL
0 123 StLouis
0 68 TexasState
0 63 MinnesotaU
0 65 WashingtonU
0 62 Bucknell
0 61 UTEP
0 67 ColoradoCollege
0 69 Providence
0 70 TexasU
0 76 VCU
0 75 WesternKentucky
0 71 KentuckyU
0 72 MissouriU
0 66 MichiganU
0 77 WesternMichigan
0 78 UtahU
0 79 OklahomaU
0 84 Dartmouth
0 85 NebraskaU
0 86 LSU
0 90 Brown
0 100 ArkansasU
0 87 JamesMadison
0 92 Louisville
0 94 StJohns
0 98 Tulsa
0 105 Marshall
0 80 MississippiU
0 108 ColoradoU
0 111 ArizonaU
0 118 UtahValley
0 82 UtahState
0 93 CalStateFullerton
0 97 OregonState
0 106 Vanderbilt
0 110 Syracuse
0 114 SanDiegoU
0 109 GeorgiaU
0 128 SanJoseState
0 135 SamHoustonState
0 102 Charlotte
0 115 DePaul
0 139 MissouriState
0 142 EastCarolina
0 83 HighPoint
0 88 AbileneChristian
0 121 CalStateNorthridge
0 144 ArizonaState
0 146 NorthwesternU
0 89 CentralMichigan
0 113 MiddleTennessee
0 130 Mercer
0 148 AlabamaU
0 103 Navy
0 91 Furman
0 104 UNCGreensboro
0 107 TennesseeMartin
0 117 Colgate
0 147 PennsylvaniaU
0 99 UCIrvine
0 122 Milwaukee
0 132 BallState
0 140 MichiganState
0 145 NewMexicoU
0 119 UNCWilmington
0 127 SELouisiana
0 101 AppalachianState
0 120 JacksonvilleU
0 125 GeorgeMason
0 150 Columbia
0 116 GeorgiaState
0 138 UALR
0 126 EastTennesseeState
0 129 OralRoberts
0 133 Campbell
0 134 TCU
0 136 Hartford
0 143 OldDominion
0 131 MassachusettsU
0 137 Richmond
0 149 Siena

Next in line:
  • #1 seed:  Virginia, Florida
  • #2 seed:  South Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers
  • #3 seed:  Boston College, Virginia Tech, UCF, Southern California
  • #4 seed:  Virginia Tech, Boston U
  • At large selection, within Top 60:  Illinois, Clemson, Kansas, Miami OH
  • At large selection, outside Top 60:  Miami FL, Minnesota, Washington, Bucknell, UTEP, Colorado College, Providence, Texas, VCU, Western Kentucky, Kentucky, Missouri, Michigan, Western Michigan, Utah, Oklahoma, Dartmouth, Nebraska, LSU, Brown, Arkansas

Simulated Rankings for the 2017 Season -- Pre-Season

Below are the pre-season simulated rankings of all teams as of the end of the 2017 season, including conference tournaments.  I described the system for producing the simulation in the preceding post, dated August 10, 2017.

Something will stand out to those of you familiar with teams' typical rankings over the years.  There are a lot more mid-major teams relatively high in the rankings and a lot fewer major conference teams relatively high in the rankings than is normal for end-of-season rankings.  There's a reason for this, and it illustrates the RPI's most significant flaw.  The problem is that the system I use assumes that all teams will win, lose, or tie their games in accord with their and their opponents' ratings, adjusted for home field advantage.   But in fact, that won't happen.  Instead, teams from major conferences on average will win or tie more games than the ratings say they should, and teams from mid-major conferences on average will lose or tie more games than the ratings say they should.  So, when the teams actually have played their games, the teams from major conferences on average will have better records than the simulation shows and teams from mid-majors will have poorer records.  As the season progresses and, weekly, I substitute actual game results for simulated game results, this problem gradually will correct itself.

With that warning as background, here are the simulated rankings for all teams as of the end of the season:

Team ARPI Rank
FloridaState 1
NorthCarolinaU 2
WestVirginiaU 3
Stanford 4
FloridaU 5
VirginiaU 6
UCLA 7
NotreDame 8
PennState 9
SouthCarolinaU 10
Marquette 11
BostonCollege 12
Rutgers 13
TexasA&M 14
UCF 15
BostonU 16
ConnecticutU 17
SouthernCalifornia 18
VirginiaTech 19
SantaClara 20
CaliforniaU 21
SouthAlabama 22
Auburn 23
Northeastern 24
Georgetown 25
OhioState 26
Baylor 27
Duke 28
Princeton 29
WisconsinU 30
OklahomaState 31
TennesseeU 32
TexasTech 33
Troy 34
SanDiegoState 35
Memphis 36
BYU 37
NorthTexas 38
Harvard 39
LaSalle 40
WashingtonState 41
LongBeachState 42
William&Mary 43
StephenFAustin 44
Rice 45
Samford 46
Buffalo 47
WakeForest 48
Hofstra 49
Liberty 50
MurrayState 51
IllinoisU 52
Pepperdine 53
Dayton 54
FloridaGulfCoast 55
Clemson 56
PortlandU 57
KansasU 58
SouthFlorida 59
MiamiOH 60
UTEP 61
Bucknell 62
MinnesotaU 63
Monmouth 64
WashingtonU 65
MichiganU 66
ColoradoCollege 67
TexasState 68
Providence 69
TexasU 70
KentuckyU 71
MissouriU 72
IllinoisState 73
UNLV 74
WesternKentucky 75
VCU 76
WesternMichigan 77
UtahU 78
OklahomaU 79
MississippiU 80
WrightState 81
UtahState 82
HighPoint 83
Dartmouth 84
NebraskaU 85
LSU 86
JamesMadison 87
AbileneChristian 88
CentralMichigan 89
Brown 90
Furman 91
Louisville 92
CalStateFullerton 93
StJohns 94
FairleighDickinson 95
MiamiFL 96
OregonState 97
Tulsa 98
UCIrvine 99
ArkansasU 100
AppalachianState 101
Charlotte 102
Navy 103
UNCGreensboro 104
Marshall 105
Vanderbilt 106
TennesseeMartin 107
ColoradoU 108
GeorgiaU 109
Syracuse 110
ArizonaU 111
Denver 112
MiddleTennessee 113
SanDiegoU 114
DePaul 115
GeorgiaState 116
Colgate 117
UtahValley 118
UNCWilmington 119
JacksonvilleU 120
CalStateNorthridge 121
Milwaukee 122
StLouis 123
Albany 124
GeorgeMason 125
EastTennesseeState 126
SELouisiana 127
SanJoseState 128
OralRoberts 129
Mercer 130
MassachusettsU 131
BallState 132
Campbell 133
TCU 134
SamHoustonState 135
Hartford 136
Richmond 137
UALR 138
MissouriState 139
MichiganState 140
Seattle 141
EastCarolina 142
OldDominion 143
ArizonaState 144
NewMexicoU 145
NorthwesternU 146
PennsylvaniaU 147
AlabamaU 148
Siena 149
Columbia 150
EasternWashington 151
Longwood 152
IowaState 153
SoutheastMissouriState 154
Fordham 155
DelawareU 156
Yale 157
Cincinnati 158
WyomingU 159
KentState 160
SMU 161
NCState 162
IdahoU 163
GeorgeWashington 164
Radford 165
StJosephs 166
OregonU 167
StFrancis 168
CoastalCarolina 169
Rider 170
Army 171
LoyolaMarymount 172
EasternMichigan 173
Drake 174
Cornell 175
IowaU 176
Creighton 177
GeorgiaSouthern 178
Toledo 179
Butler 180
UCSantaBarbara 181
NewHampshireU 182
KennesawState 183
FIU 184
CalPoly 185
HoustonBaptist 186
MississippiState 187
WesternCarolina 188
Oakland 189
Elon 190
Valparaiso 191
Duquesne 192
NorthernColorado 193
IndianaU 194
CentralArkansas 195
NorthernArizona 196
CentralConnecticut 197
LouisianaTech 198
Evansville 199
FloridaAtlantic 200
Fairfield 201
Pittsburgh 202
GrandCanyon 203
MarylandU 204
BoiseState 205
Howard 206
Drexel 207
Lipscomb 208
SouthDakotaState 209
NorthwesternState 210
UCDavis 211
LouisianaLafayette 212
UCRiverside 213
Morehead 214
MaineU 215
RhodeIslandU 216
UMKC 217
StonyBrook 218
UTSA 219
UAB 220
MontanaU 221
HolyCross 222
Lehigh 223
Belmont 224
SanFrancisco 225
Purdue 226
Temple 227
CollegeofCharleston 228
Houston 229
LoyolaMD 230
StMarys 231
LouisianaMonroe 232
Winthrop 233
Detroit 234
KansasState 235
TexasSouthern 236
SIUEdwardsville 237
AustinPeay 238
CharlestonSouthern 239
SetonHall 240
StBonaventure 241
Quinnipiac 242
FresnoState 243
SouthernMississippi 244
Gonzaga 245
NorthernIllinois 246
Niagara 247
Wofford 248
NorthDakotaState 249
Stetson 250
Xavier 251
NorthernKentucky 252
Villanova 253
OhioU 254
TennesseeTech 255
Akron 256
Manhattan 257
JacksonState 258
SacredHeart 259
ArkansasState 260
LoyolaChicago 261
AirForce 262
Davidson 263
WeberState 264
IUPUI 265
Towson 266
TexasCorpusChristi 267
NichollsState 268
Lamar 269
Lafayette 270
EasternKentucky 271
Marist 272
Chattanooga 273
BowlingGreen 274
UNCAsheville 275
McNeeseState 276
HawaiiU 277
GardnerWebb 278
CalStateBakersfield 279
NevadaU 280
JacksonvilleState 281
Presbyterian 282
American 283
SouthernUtah 284
UMBC 285
PortlandState 286
NorthFlorida 287
ColoradoState 288
IndianaState 289
RobertMorris 290
UNOmaha 291
Wagner 292
VermontU 293
YoungstownState 294
PrairieViewA&M 295
SacramentoState 296
Binghamton 297
VMI 298
NewMexicoState 299
IncarnateWord 300
IdahoState 301
Citadel 302
WesternIllinois 303
UMassLowell 304
Canisius 305
TexasRGV 306
UNI 307
MississippiValley 308
Iona 309
IllinoisChicago 310
Pacific 311
ClevelandState 312
AlabamaState 313
MountStMary 314
USCUpstate 315
ArkansasPineBluff 316
SouthDakotaU 317
NJIT 318
GreenBay 319
EasternIllinois 320
Bryant 321
IPFW 322
SouthCarolinaState 323
LongIsland 324
NorthDakotaU 325
DelawareState 326
AlabamaA&M 327
Grambling 328
SouthernU 329
StPeters 330
ChicagoState 331
AlcornState 332
Hampton 333