[NOTE: If you are really serious about understanding how the bracket simulation system works, go to NCAA Tournament: Predicting the Bracket, Track Your Team at the RPI for Division I Women's Soccer website, read that page, and then follow the instructions for using the 2017 Website Factor Workbook Preseason attached at the bottom of the page.]
As I wrote in the introduction to the preceding post, the simulated rankings and related data tend to have mid-major teams ranked better than they really will be at the end of the season and many major conference teams ranked poorer than they will be. This shows up in the NCAA Tournament simulation, especially in the at large selections. Over the course of the season, as I substitute actual game results into the system in place of simulated game results, this problem gradually will correct itself.
A good way to see this problem with the simulation is to look at the number of Automatic Qualifiers in the Top 60 teams, which ultimately will be the pool of teams the Women's Soccer Committee likely will look at for at large selections. The simulation shows 22 Automatic Qualifiers among the Top 60 teams. Over the last 10 years, however, the average number of Automatic Qualifiers in the Top 60 has been 15.5, and the numbers have been quite consistent. Thus the simulation likely has 6 to 7 more Automatic Qualifiers among the Top 60 than actually will be there. And, looking at where the Automatic Qualifiers fall within the Top 60, all of the "interlopers" are from conferences other than the major conferences.
The table below covers the top 150 teams and shows:
- In the NCAA Seed or Selection column, how the teams would fare with the Women's Soccer Committee if the Committee were using the simulated season data and were making decisions consistent with the ones it's made over the last 10 years. A "1" means the team gets a #1 seed; a "2" means a #2 seed; a "3" means a #3 seed; a "4" means a #4 seed; a "5" means the team is an unseeded Automatic Qualifier ranked within the Top 150; a "6" means the team gets an at large selection; a "7" means the team is in the Top 60 but does not get an at large selection; and a blank means the team is outside the Top 60 and does not get an at large selection.
- In the Automatic Qualifier column, the simulated conference champions (other than those outside the Top 150).
- In the ARPI Rank for Formation column, the teams' ARPI ranks.
- In the Teams for Formation column, the teams.
The teams within each numbered group are sorted in a way that helps place the teams that do not get an at large selection in close to the order in which they would come next in line for a selection.
At the bottom of the table, I'll indicate which teams likely would be next in line for seeds and at large selections.
|NCAA Seed or Selection||Automatic Qualifier||ARPI Rank for Formation||Team for Formation|
Next in line:
- #1 seed: Virginia, Florida
- #2 seed: South Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers
- #3 seed: Boston College, Virginia Tech, UCF, Southern California
- #4 seed: Virginia Tech, Boston U
- At large selection, within Top 60: Illinois, Clemson, Kansas, Miami OH
- At large selection, outside Top 60: Miami FL, Minnesota, Washington, Bucknell, UTEP, Colorado College, Providence, Texas, VCU, Western Kentucky, Kentucky, Missouri, Michigan, Western Michigan, Utah, Oklahoma, Dartmouth, Nebraska, LSU, Brown, Arkansas