2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulation 10.30.2017

Below are my simulation's current NCAA Tournament bracket decisions, derived from the actual results of games played through Sunday, October 29, 2017 including conference tournament games, the official conference tournament brackets, and the simulated results of all games not yet played including future conference tournament games.

On reviewing the simulation, I see a definite question the Women's Soccer Committee will have to deal with this year.  The question comes up because there are teams that meet several standards for which teams that have met those standards over the last 10 years always have gotten at large selections.  These standards involve very good Non-Conference RPI ratings and ranks.  On the other hand, the teams are from the top conferences and have conference finishing positions for which teams over the last 10 years never have gotten at large selections.  These are profiles the Committee has not seen over the last 10 years, and the Committee is going to have to decide how to deal with them.

In the table below, I've arranged the teams in order of the simulated decisions and, within the group getting at large selections and within the group not getting at large selections, in the order in which they seem to rank for at large selection purposes.  Thus the last teams on the list that the simulation gives selections to are the weakest for selection according to the simulation and the first teams the simulation does not give selections to are the strongest for selection.

I've also included in the list additional teams ranked from #63 to 80 (61 and 62 are automatic qualifiers), although history says that at this point in the season they are too poorly ranked to end up getting at large selections.

Here is the key to the NCAA Seed or Selection column:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded automatic qualifier
6 = unseeded at large selection
7 = top 60 team, but no at large selection
8 = top 60 team disqualified due to record under 0.500 (there aren't any)

NCAA Seed or Selection	Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank for Formation	Team for Formation
1	AQ	1	SouthCarolinaU
1	0	4	Duke
1	AQ	2	Stanford
1	AQ	3	NorthCarolinaU
2	AQ	6	UCF
2	AQ	5	WestVirginiaU
2	0	7	TexasA&M
2	0	8	UCLA
3	AQ	11	PennState
3	0	15	NotreDame
3	0	12	Rutgers
3	0	14	OhioState
4	0	21	FloridaU
4	0	10	Princeton
4	0	13	TennesseeU
4	0	9	TexasU
5	AQ	16	Pepperdine
5	AQ	27	Georgetown
5	AQ	22	MurrayState
5	AQ	26	Hofstra
5	AQ	19	Rice
5	AQ	34	FloridaGulfCoast
5	AQ	35	Monmouth
5	AQ	41	Drake
5	AQ	53	Navy
5	AQ	49	LaSalle
5	AQ	56	UCIrvine
5	AQ	40	SanJoseState
5	AQ	61	SouthAlabama
5	AQ	62	Milwaukee
5	AQ	82	KentState
5	AQ	75	Lamar
5	0	67	Columbia
5	AQ	84	EasternWashington
5	AQ	130	SouthDakotaState
5	AQ	145	UMKC
5	AQ	73	Samford
5	AQ	113	Liberty
5	AQ	118	Bryant
5	AQ	157	StonyBrook
5	AQ	219	AlabamaState
6	0	23	VirginiaU
6	0	20	SouthFlorida
6	0	18	SouthernCalifornia
6	0	17	FloridaState
6	0	25	WisconsinU
6	0	29	AlabamaU
6	0	33	OklahomaState
6	0	42	WakeForest
6	0	31	NCState
6	0	32	Auburn
6	0	44	Butler
6	0	24	ArizonaU
6	0	28	CaliforniaU
6	0	30	SantaClara
6	0	43	Cincinnati
6	0	38	MississippiU
6	0	45	Vanderbilt
6	0	36	Clemson
6	0	37	NorthwesternU
6	0	39	ColoradoU
6	0	46	Memphis
6	0	51	MinnesotaU
6	0	47	TCU
7	0	59	LSU
7	0	48	MississippiState
7	0	55	ArkansasU
7	0	52	WashingtonState
7	0	50	Drexel
7	0	54	Marquette
7	0	57	VirginiaTech
7	0	58	BostonCollege
7	0	60	NorthTexas
	0	63	Yale
	0	64	MichiganU
	0	65	StLouis
	0	66	LouisianaTech
	0	68	WashingtonU
	0	69	Baylor
	0	70	Purdue
	0	71	StJosephs
	0	72	Northeastern
	0	74	LoyolaMarymount
	0	76	TennesseeTech
	0	77	TexasTech
	0	78	NebraskaU
	0	79	LongBeachState
	0	80	Louisville

Other potential seeds:

#1:  Texas A&M, UCF, UCLA (a stretch)

#2:  Penn State, Ohio State

#3:  Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Virginia, South Florida

#4:  Virginia, South Florida, Wisconsin, Southern California, Arizona, Florida State