Monday, October 2, 2017

2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulation 10.2.2017

Here is this week's NCAA Tournament bracket simulation derived from teams' simulated ratings and other data, using actual results of games through Sunday, October 1, and simulated results of games not yet played and of conference tournaments.  The table covers the Top 150 teams in the simulated ARPI rankings.

The code in the "NCAA Seed or Selection" column is:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded Automatic Qualifiers
6 = unseeded at large selections
7 = teams in the Top 60 not getting at large selections
8 = teams in Top 50 disqualified from at large selection due to records below 0.500 (there aren't any, at present)
9 = teams outside, but near, the Top 60 that will have good shots at at large selections if they make it into the Top 60

Regarding the last group (the 9s) of teams, as conference play continues, I'm anticipating that some mid-major teams will drop down out of the Top 60 and some power conference teams will move up into it.  In particular, if they continue to perform as they have so far this season, I think there's a good chance we'll see NC State and Baylor -- and possibly Yale -- move up, in which case they'll all have decent chances for at large selections.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see Michigan move from a 7 to a 6.

As always, take these with a grain of salt.  There's still plenty of time for teams to move around.

Following the table, I'll list other potential candidates for the seed positions.

NCAA Seed or Selection Automatic Qualifier ARPI Rank for Formation Team for Formation
1 AQ 1 SouthCarolinaU
1 AQ 2 Stanford
1 AQ 4 UCF
1 AQ 3 NorthCarolinaU
2 0 7 Duke
2 AQ 5 WestVirginiaU
2 0 6 TexasU
2 AQ 8 Rutgers
3 0 14 FloridaU
3 0 9 UCLA
3 AQ 10 Princeton
3 0 11 TennesseeU
4 0 16 PennState
4 AQ 13 Georgetown
4 0 17 TexasA&M
4 AQ 24 Pepperdine
5 AQ 21 MurrayState
5 AQ 31 Monmouth
5 AQ 28 LongBeachState
5 AQ 23 Rice
5 AQ 32 Northeastern
5 AQ 42 StLouis
5 AQ 27 FloridaGulfCoast
5 AQ 49 NewHampshireU
5 AQ 54 SouthAlabama
5 AQ 51 Navy
5 AQ 56 Lamar
5 AQ 61 KentState
5 AQ 71 Milwaukee
5 AQ 88 LoyolaChicago
5 AQ 100 EasternWashington
5 AQ 75 Furman
5 AQ 96 HighPoint
5 AQ 143 TexasRGV
5 AQ 48 UNLV
5 AQ 70 TennesseeTech
5 AQ 77 Bryant
6 0 30 WakeForest
6 0 20 OhioState
6 0 15 Cincinnati
6 0 18 MississippiU
6 0 36 VirginiaU
6 0 25 AlabamaU
6 0 12 FloridaState
6 0 22 ArizonaU
6 0 41 LSU
6 0 19 CaliforniaU
6 0 29 Auburn
6 0 26 NotreDame
6 0 33 SouthFlorida
6 0 50 MississippiState
6 0 46 OklahomaState
6 0 57 Butler
6 0 34 Purdue
6 0 40 WisconsinU
6 0 43 NorthwesternU
6 0 35 Hofstra
6 0 37 WashingtonU
6 0 38 SantaClara
6 0 39 LoyolaMarymount
6 0 44 Memphis
6 0 45 Drexel
7 0 47 MichiganU
7 0 52 ColoradoU
7 0 55 UCIrvine
7 0 58 Clemson
7 0 53 Marquette
7 0 59 TCU
7 0 60 LaSalle
9 0 62 NCState
9 0 64 Baylor
9 0 63 Yale
  0 67 UAB
  0 68 WashingtonState
  0 72 MarylandU
  0 80 Xavier
  0 66 Stetson
  0 69 BostonCollege
  0 76 UtahU
  0 74 MinnesotaU
  0 89 Houston
  0 91 SMU
  0 94 Gonzaga
  0 73 StJosephs
  0 81 Columbia
  0 83 UALR
  0 90 DelawareU
  0 99 TexasTech
  0 82 Vanderbilt
  0 95 KentuckyU
  0 101 SouthernCalifornia
  0 103 Villanova
  0 84 VirginiaTech
  0 86 BostonU
  0 92 Belmont
  0 107 Brown
  0 109 Pittsburgh
  0 120 BYU
  0 79 SanJoseState
  0 135 Dartmouth
  0 65 NorthTexas
  0 87 UNI
  0 93 LouisianaTech
  0 98 NorthernColorado
  0 124 Harvard
  0 130 GeorgiaU
  0 133 UNCWilmington
  0 134 ArizonaState
  0 116 NebraskaU
  0 117 Louisville
  0 125 IndianaU
  0 127 AustinPeay
  0 78 NewMexicoU
  0 112 CalStateFullerton
  0 149 UCSantaBarbara
  0 150 OregonU
  0 114 Radford
  0 126 KansasU
  0 139 MontanaU
  0 142 Charlotte
  0 145 VCU
  0 147 SanFrancisco
  0 102 Drake
  0 115 SacramentoState
  0 128 ArkansasU
  0 129 UtahState
  0 85 Duquesne
  0 110 Samford
  0 111 Toledo
  0 113 Binghamton
  0 141 Providence
  0 119 CalStateNorthridge
  0 97 NorthernKentucky
  0 104 WesternMichigan
  0 105 StephenFAustin
  0 108 SanDiegoState
  0 118 Dayton
  0 123 KennesawState
  0 136 IllinoisState
  0 144 Lipscomb
  0 122 McNeeseState
  0 132 EasternKentucky
  0 138 BallState
  0 140 Lehigh
  0 146 OldDominion
  0 148 FloridaAtlantic
  0 106 Quinnipiac
  0 131 IUPUI
  0 121 Liberty
  0 137 UNCGreensboro

Other potential seeds:

#1 seed:  Duke, Rutgers, UCLA, West Virginia

#2 seed:  UCLA, Tennessee, Florida, Penn State, Texas A&M

#3 seed:  Texas A&M, Penn State, Cincinnati, Mississippi, Florida State, Ohio State, Wake Forest

#4 seed:  Cincinnati, Florida State, Ohio State, Mississippi, Wake Forest, Arizona, California

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