2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulation 10.2.2017

Here is this week's NCAA Tournament bracket simulation derived from teams' simulated ratings and other data, using actual results of games through Sunday, October 1, and simulated results of games not yet played and of conference tournaments.  The table covers the Top 150 teams in the simulated ARPI rankings.

The code in the "NCAA Seed or Selection" column is:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded Automatic Qualifiers
6 = unseeded at large selections
7 = teams in the Top 60 not getting at large selections
8 = teams in Top 50 disqualified from at large selection due to records below 0.500 (there aren't any, at present)
9 = teams outside, but near, the Top 60 that will have good shots at at large selections if they make it into the Top 60

Regarding the last group (the 9s) of teams, as conference play continues, I'm anticipating that some mid-major teams will drop down out of the Top 60 and some power conference teams will move up into it.  In particular, if they continue to perform as they have so far this season, I think there's a good chance we'll see NC State and Baylor -- and possibly Yale -- move up, in which case they'll all have decent chances for at large selections.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see Michigan move from a 7 to a 6.

As always, take these with a grain of salt.  There's still plenty of time for teams to move around.

Following the table, I'll list other potential candidates for the seed positions.

NCAA Seed or Selection	Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank for Formation	Team for Formation
1	AQ	1	SouthCarolinaU
1	AQ	2	Stanford
1	AQ	4	UCF
1	AQ	3	NorthCarolinaU
2	0	7	Duke
2	AQ	5	WestVirginiaU
2	0	6	TexasU
2	AQ	8	Rutgers
3	0	14	FloridaU
3	0	9	UCLA
3	AQ	10	Princeton
3	0	11	TennesseeU
4	0	16	PennState
4	AQ	13	Georgetown
4	0	17	TexasA&M
4	AQ	24	Pepperdine
5	AQ	21	MurrayState
5	AQ	31	Monmouth
5	AQ	28	LongBeachState
5	AQ	23	Rice
5	AQ	32	Northeastern
5	AQ	42	StLouis
5	AQ	27	FloridaGulfCoast
5	AQ	49	NewHampshireU
5	AQ	54	SouthAlabama
5	AQ	51	Navy
5	AQ	56	Lamar
5	AQ	61	KentState
5	AQ	71	Milwaukee
5	AQ	88	LoyolaChicago
5	AQ	100	EasternWashington
5	AQ	75	Furman
5	AQ	96	HighPoint
5	AQ	143	TexasRGV
5	AQ	48	UNLV
5	AQ	70	TennesseeTech
5	AQ	77	Bryant
6	0	30	WakeForest
6	0	20	OhioState
6	0	15	Cincinnati
6	0	18	MississippiU
6	0	36	VirginiaU
6	0	25	AlabamaU
6	0	12	FloridaState
6	0	22	ArizonaU
6	0	41	LSU
6	0	19	CaliforniaU
6	0	29	Auburn
6	0	26	NotreDame
6	0	33	SouthFlorida
6	0	50	MississippiState
6	0	46	OklahomaState
6	0	57	Butler
6	0	34	Purdue
6	0	40	WisconsinU
6	0	43	NorthwesternU
6	0	35	Hofstra
6	0	37	WashingtonU
6	0	38	SantaClara
6	0	39	LoyolaMarymount
6	0	44	Memphis
6	0	45	Drexel
7	0	47	MichiganU
7	0	52	ColoradoU
7	0	55	UCIrvine
7	0	58	Clemson
7	0	53	Marquette
7	0	59	TCU
7	0	60	LaSalle
9	0	62	NCState
9	0	64	Baylor
9	0	63	Yale
	0	67	UAB
	0	68	WashingtonState
	0	72	MarylandU
	0	80	Xavier
	0	66	Stetson
	0	69	BostonCollege
	0	76	UtahU
	0	74	MinnesotaU
	0	89	Houston
	0	91	SMU
	0	94	Gonzaga
	0	73	StJosephs
	0	81	Columbia
	0	83	UALR
	0	90	DelawareU
	0	99	TexasTech
	0	82	Vanderbilt
	0	95	KentuckyU
	0	101	SouthernCalifornia
	0	103	Villanova
	0	84	VirginiaTech
	0	86	BostonU
	0	92	Belmont
	0	107	Brown
	0	109	Pittsburgh
	0	120	BYU
	0	79	SanJoseState
	0	135	Dartmouth
	0	65	NorthTexas
	0	87	UNI
	0	93	LouisianaTech
	0	98	NorthernColorado
	0	124	Harvard
	0	130	GeorgiaU
	0	133	UNCWilmington
	0	134	ArizonaState
	0	116	NebraskaU
	0	117	Louisville
	0	125	IndianaU
	0	127	AustinPeay
	0	78	NewMexicoU
	0	112	CalStateFullerton
	0	149	UCSantaBarbara
	0	150	OregonU
	0	114	Radford
	0	126	KansasU
	0	139	MontanaU
	0	142	Charlotte
	0	145	VCU
	0	147	SanFrancisco
	0	102	Drake
	0	115	SacramentoState
	0	128	ArkansasU
	0	129	UtahState
	0	85	Duquesne
	0	110	Samford
	0	111	Toledo
	0	113	Binghamton
	0	141	Providence
	0	119	CalStateNorthridge
	0	97	NorthernKentucky
	0	104	WesternMichigan
	0	105	StephenFAustin
	0	108	SanDiegoState
	0	118	Dayton
	0	123	KennesawState
	0	136	IllinoisState
	0	144	Lipscomb
	0	122	McNeeseState
	0	132	EasternKentucky
	0	138	BallState
	0	140	Lehigh
	0	146	OldDominion
	0	148	FloridaAtlantic
	0	106	Quinnipiac
	0	131	IUPUI
	0	121	Liberty
	0	137	UNCGreensboro

Other potential seeds:

#1 seed:  Duke, Rutgers, UCLA, West Virginia

#2 seed:  UCLA, Tennessee, Florida, Penn State, Texas A&M

#3 seed:  Texas A&M, Penn State, Cincinnati, Mississippi, Florida State, Ohio State, Wake Forest

#4 seed:  Cincinnati, Florida State, Ohio State, Mississippi, Wake Forest, Arizona, California