Tuesday, October 25, 2016

2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulation: Week 10 Update (Games Through October 23)

The code for the "NCAA Seed or Selection" column is:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed

5 = automatic qualifier

6 = unseeded at large selection

7 = next teams in line for at large selection

The bracket simulation is a computer-generated simulation that compares teams' end-of-season data (using simulated results for games not yet played) to the Women's Soccer Committee's decisions over the last 9 years.  The simulation simply says that if the Committee follows the pattern over those years, here's what its decisions will be.  There are a number of cases in which a team meets criteria under which the Committee always has made a particular decision -- such as giving a team an at large selection -- and simultaneously meets criteria under which the Committee always has made the opposite decision -- such as not giving a team an at large selection.  If the Committee were making a decision today, what that means is the Committee would be facing a team profile it hasn't seen over the previous 9 years.  Because of this, in some cases I have to make a guess as to how the Committee would handle particular teams.  In those cases, I simply have made a best guess about what I think the Committee would do.

In line with the preceding paragraph, regarding at large selections, the current simulation identifies the following teams as getting at large selections, but without the data being clear on it.  The format of the list is ARPI Rank, Team, Number of "Yes" Criteria Met for Getting an At Large Selection/Number of "No" Criteria Met:

39 Harvard 4/7
41 Virginia Tech 5/15 (quite "iffy" for getting a selection)
42 Colorado 2/5
46 Oregon 0/0
49 Santa Clara 11/1
54 Wisconsin 0/0
57 Oklahoma State 4/7

The simulation identifies the following teams as not getting at large selections:

33 Rice 7/43 (very "iffy" for not getting a selection, due to its simulated rank)
43 NC State 0/11
44 LSU (0/1)
55 Texas A&M 0/1
56 Missouri (0/15)
58 Michigan (0/7)

Here are the overall simulation results:

NCAA Seed or Selection Automatic Qualifier ARPI Rank Team
1 AQ 1 Stanford
1 AQ 2 WestVirginiaU
1 AQ 3 SouthCarolinaU
1 4 SouthernCalifornia
2 5 OklahomaU
2 AQ 6 Georgetown
2 8 Clemson
2 AQ 10 NotreDame
3 9 VirginiaU
3 12 Duke
3 13 FloridaU
3 16 FloridaState
4 7 UCLA
4 AQ 11 ConnecticutU
4 15 BYU
4 21 KansasU
5 AQ 23 NorthwesternU
5 AQ 29 StJosephs
5 AQ 31 Pepperdine
5 AQ 32 BallState
5 AQ 37 LongBeachState
5 AQ 45 SouthAlabama
5 AQ 47 NorthTexas
5 AQ 51 Brown
5 AQ 52 UNLV
5 AQ 53 Samford
5 AQ 59 Northeastern
5 AQ 60 CentralArkansas
5 AQ 72 EasternKentucky
5 AQ 73 Bucknell
5 AQ 81 HighPoint
5 AQ 84 Monmouth
5 AQ 87 FloridaGulfCoast
5 AQ 88 Drake
5 AQ 110 Milwaukee
5 AQ 118 Albany
5 AQ 119 Seattle
5 AQ 135 SouthDakotaState
5 AQ 140 IdahoU
5 AQ 175 Howard
5 AQ 200 CentralConnecticut
6 14 Auburn
6 17 ArkansasU
6 18 Rutgers
6 19 NebraskaU
6 20 NorthCarolinaU
6 22 MinnesotaU
6 24 Memphis
6 25 Marquette
6 26 Princeton
6 27 OhioState
6 28 UtahU
6 30 CaliforniaU
6 34 PennState
6 35 IowaState
6 36 SMU
6 39 Harvard
6 40 Providence
6 41 VirginiaTech
6 42 ColoradoU
6 46 OregonU
6 49 SantaClara
6 54 WisconsinU
6 57 OklahomaState
7 33 Rice
7 43 NCState
7 44 LoyolaMarymount
7 55 TexasA&M
7 56 MissouriU
7 58 MichiganU

2 comments:

  1. Don't understand Brown as AQ in Ivy League..Don't see how they pass Columbia or Harvard? Three from Ivy League?

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  2. You're looking at the October 23 bracket simulation. The projection of Brown as the Ivy champion actually was correct at the time, based on teams' comparative ratings and the game locations for the remaining Ivy games. After this past weekend's games, however, which didn't quite come out as projected, Harvard is looking like the champion, followed by Columbia. You'll see that if you look at the October 30 simulation.

    If I recall the simulation correctly, only two Ivy teams -- Harvard as the AQ plus Princeton. Princeton will test the Committee's attitude about the RPI, since only the RPI gets Princeton "in."

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