Here's a table that shows how my use of each week's new ARPI ratings should improve the "end of season likely look" each week:
|Ratings||Correct: Simulated Win Is Actual Win||Difference from W/L is Tie or From Tie is W/L||Correct or Within Half||Incorrect: Simulated Win Is Actual Loss|
|Pre-Season ARPI Simulation||60.4%||19.1%||79.5%||20.5%|
|9/18 ARPI Simulation||66.0%||19.5%||85.5%||14.5%|
|9/25 ARPI Simulation||68.3%||18.2%||86.5%||13.5%|
|10/2 ARPI Simulation||69.7%||17.8%||87.4%||12.6%|
|10/9 ARPI Simulation||70.6%||18.0%||88.6%||11.4%|
As the table indicates, when I update weekly the ARPI ratings based on which I simulate future results, the simulated results become progressively more representative of actual results. This is particularly important in relation to my simulated conference tournaments, which have been looking increasingly unrealistic to me if I use only the Pre-Season Simulation ratings.