The series of posts below this one are my weekly reports covering games through October 9. In order, they are:
Weekly RPI Report: Games Through October 9. This is teams' actual Adjusted RPIs as of this stage of the season. There are some differences from the NCAA's calculated ratings and rankings, due to a couple of errors in this week's NCAA data base. Both errors involve games that are listed twice in its data base: Northwestern 1 v Michigan State 0 and Monmouth 5 v Niagara 0. I'm sure the NCAA will correct these errors before it releases next week's ratings.
For this report, based on the last 9 seasons, here are the teams that are potential seed and at large selection candidates:
#1 seed: Teams ranked #19 or better
#2 seed: Teams ranked #31 or better
#3 seed: Teams ranked # 45 or better
#4 seed: Teams ranked #53 or better
Likely assured of at large selection: Teams ranked #17 or better
Potential, but not assured of, at large selection: Teams ranked #18 through #86
Teams very unlikely to get at large selection: Teams ranked #87 or poorer
2016 Season Simulation: Week 8 Update (Through October 9). This is a simulation of the entire season, including conference tournaments. It is a hybrid system, using actual results of games already played and simulated results for games not yet played. The simulated results are based on ratings assigned to teams at the beginning of the season. Now that conference play is underway, each week I revisit the conference tournament brackets I've set up, based on actual conference game results to date and simulated results for games not yet played. Once I've updated the brackets each week, I then simulate conference tournament results in the same way I simulate other results, based on ratings assigned at the beginning of the season. The two places I use current ratings rather than simulated ratings is to determine seeding order if two teams are tied in conference points scored and to determine who advances if a simulated result is a tie.
2016 NCAA Bracket Simulation: Week 8 Update (Through October 9). This is a simulation of the NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds, if the Women's Soccer Committee follows its decision patterns over the last 9 years. The Automatic Qualifiers are based on my conference tournament simulations. The code for the left hand column is:
1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = Unseeded Automatic Qualifier
6 = Unseeded at large selection
7 = Next teams in line
2016 Season Simulation: How Teams Have Progressed, Through October 9. This shows how teams' simulated rankings have changed over the course of the season, as I've updated the simulation with actual results each week. It shows which teams are performing just about as the simulation thought they would, which teams have performed better, and which teams have performed more poorly. By looking at how teams' simulated ranks have changed from week to week, one also can get an idea of whether teams appear to have stabilized at their likely "true" rankings or whether they appear still to have further room for movement in the rankings.