Tuesday, September 20, 2016

2016 Season Simulation: Week 5 Update

This Week 5 Update to the 2016 Season Simulation is a hybrid of (1) the actual results of the games played from the beginning of the season through Sunday, September 18 and (2) my simulated results for the balance of the season (including simulated conference tournaments).  Starting with this week's Update since conference games now have begun, each week I update my simulated conference tournament brackets to incorporate the results of conference games actually played.

Team Conference Adjusted RPI ARPI Rank Total Wins Total Losses Total Ties
WestVirginiaU BigTwelve 0.7333 1 19 1 1
Stanford PacTwelve 0.7284 2 17 0 2
Georgetown BigEast 0.7038 3 19 1 0
Duke ACC 0.7037 4 16 2 3
FloridaU SEC 0.7022 5 18 2 0
Clemson ACC 0.6930 6 17 2 2
UCLA PacTwelve 0.6726 7 13 4 2
SouthernCalifornia PacTwelve 0.6712 8 16 2 1
BYU WestCoast 0.6705 9 18 1 0
ConnecticutU American 0.6682 10 20 2 0
FloridaState ACC 0.6620 11 15 3 1
PennState BigTen 0.6590 12 14 3 4
Auburn SEC 0.6572 13 13 6 2
VirginiaU ACC 0.6538 14 14 4 2
OklahomaState BigTwelve 0.6490 15 16 4 2
WisconsinU BigTen 0.6468 16 14 3 5
Memphis American 0.6466 17 14 4 3
BostonCollege ACC 0.6460 18 14 2 4
SouthCarolinaU SEC 0.6454 19 14 4 1
Rutgers BigTen 0.6430 20 13 2 5
TexasA&M SEC 0.6427 21 16 3 1
OklahomaU BigTwelve 0.6400 22 12 6 3
TexasTech BigTwelve 0.6373 23 13 4 3
Rice ConferenceUSA 0.6366 24 15 3 1
OhioState BigTen 0.6321 25 12 5 3
SouthAlabama SunBelt 0.6239 26 18 2 1
CaliforniaU PacTwelve 0.6233 27 15 4 1
WashingtonState PacTwelve 0.6233 28 12 6 1
MinnesotaU BigTen 0.6214 29 16 3 2
KentState MidAmerican 0.6204 30 18 1 0
Princeton Ivy 0.6201 31 14 2 1
UCF American 0.6196 32 13 5 2
LongBeachState BigWest 0.6180 33 14 5 1
VirginiaTech ACC 0.6179 34 13 6 1
Harvard Ivy 0.6171 35 12 3 1
LSU SEC 0.6140 36 14 6 1
Northeastern Colonial 0.6130 37 16 4 1
NorthCarolinaU ACC 0.6095 38 9 6 3
Samford Southern 0.6073 39 14 2 4
SantaClara WestCoast 0.6064 40 10 6 3
ArizonaU PacTwelve 0.5975 41 10 6 3
StJosephs AtlanticTen 0.5974 42 16 2 4
Pepperdine WestCoast 0.5971 43 13 4 2
GeorgiaU SEC 0.5957 44 8 9 2
GeorgeWashington AtlanticTen 0.5938 45 15 3 3
SanDiegoState MountainWest 0.5926 46 15 5 0
KentuckyU SEC 0.5896 47 7 6 6
NebraskaU BigTen 0.5882 48 11 9 0
Marquette BigEast 0.5872 49 11 7 3
WakeForest ACC 0.5866 50 12 7 0
StJohns BigEast 0.5824 51 12 4 4
WashingtonU PacTwelve 0.5816 52 10 8 2
Drake MissouriValley 0.5815 53 16 1 3
BallState MidAmerican 0.5811 54 17 4 1
Baylor BigTwelve 0.5770 55 11 6 2
IowaState BigTwelve 0.5762 56 8 9 2
Tulsa American 0.5758 57 11 9 1
SoutheastMissouriState OhioValley 0.5750 58 16 2 1
UCSantaBarbara BigWest 0.5742 59 17 3 1
TCU BigTwelve 0.5742 60 11 5 2
HighPoint BigSouth 0.5736 61 16 4 1
WesternKentucky ConferenceUSA 0.5722 62 14 5 1
UtahU PacTwelve 0.5696 63 8 9 2
PortlandU WestCoast 0.5695 64 12 5 2
NotreDame ACC 0.5689 65 8 7 3
Butler BigEast 0.5666 66 16 4 1
Providence BigEast 0.5643 67 10 9 1
Hofstra Colonial 0.5613 68 12 5 3
ArkansasU SEC 0.5611 69 9 9 1
NorthTexas ConferenceUSA 0.5604 70 16 4 2
MississippiU SEC 0.5602 71 8 9 3
Seattle WAC 0.5601 72 13 4 3
StephenFAustin Southland 0.5601 73 16 2 0
MichiganU BigTen 0.5597 74 9 4 5
UtahState MountainWest 0.5587 75 12 6 3
AlabamaU SEC 0.5585 76 9 7 4
Milwaukee Horizon 0.5528 77 15 3 2
CoastalCarolina SunBelt 0.5526 78 13 5 3
GeorgeMason AtlanticTen 0.5526 79 13 6 2
FloridaGulfCoast AtlanticSun 0.5523 80 15 4 0
Buffalo MidAmerican 0.5519 81 12 6 3
WyomingU MountainWest 0.5518 82 14 5 2
TexasU BigTwelve 0.5517 83 8 10 1
Rider MetroAtlantic 0.5515 84 14 2 3
Fordham AtlanticTen 0.5497 85 11 8 1
Cincinnati American 0.5494 86 10 7 3
NorthwesternU BigTen 0.5493 87 12 5 2
NCState ACC 0.5488 88 7 10 1
IdahoU BigSky 0.5479 89 14 3 3
Louisville ACC 0.5468 90 8 8 2
OregonU PacTwelve 0.5466 91 7 11 2
ArizonaState PacTwelve 0.5463 92 7 9 3
Furman Southern 0.5459 93 13 1 5
WesternMichigan MidAmerican 0.5456 94 13 5 3
Brown Ivy 0.5452 95 9 3 4
Liberty BigSouth 0.5451 96 14 7 0
CentralMichigan MidAmerican 0.5441 97 14 3 3
BostonU Patriot 0.5428 98 10 10 1
JamesMadison Colonial 0.5422 99 11 8 1
Dayton AtlanticTen 0.5420 100 15 5 1
UNCWilmington Colonial 0.5419 101 10 5 5
William&Mary Colonial 0.5414 102 12 5 3
SouthFlorida American 0.5410 103 9 5 4
DePaul BigEast 0.5394 104 8 9 2
TennesseeU SEC 0.5370 105 8 11 0
Albany AmericaEast 0.5361 106 12 6 1
Syracuse ACC 0.5360 107 8 8 3
Hartford AmericaEast 0.5355 108 13 4 2
OregonState PacTwelve 0.5327 109 6 10 4
CalStateNorthridge BigWest 0.5326 110 8 6 6
KansasU BigTwelve 0.5324 111 5 11 2
NewHampshireU AmericaEast 0.5324 112 10 6 3
Lipscomb AtlanticSun 0.5324 113 13 5 1
Columbia Ivy 0.5323 114 7 5 5
MissouriU SEC 0.5321 115 9 8 3
SanJoseState MountainWest 0.5318 116 9 6 6
Bucknell Patriot 0.5307 117 11 4 4
UTEP ConferenceUSA 0.5304 118 11 4 6
Colgate Patriot 0.5293 119 10 5 4
MontanaU BigSky 0.5274 120 12 5 4
Navy Patriot 0.5271 121 13 8 2
CalPoly BigWest 0.5270 122 8 8 4
SMU American 0.5265 123 8 10 1
SanDiegoU WestCoast 0.5265 124 7 9 3
LaSalle AtlanticTen 0.5240 125 7 7 5
Yale Ivy 0.5229 126 6 6 4
UALR SunBelt 0.5223 127 11 8 2
FloridaAtlantic ConferenceUSA 0.5215 128 10 8 3
NorthDakotaState Summit 0.5215 129 12 5 2
EasternWashington BigSky 0.5189 130 13 4 3
Monmouth MetroAtlantic 0.5162 131 13 4 3
Siena MetroAtlantic 0.5154 132 10 5 5
CalStateFullerton BigWest 0.5136 133 9 9 1
FresnoState MountainWest 0.5135 134 10 6 4
UMKC WAC 0.5131 135 11 6 4
Morehead OhioValley 0.5103 136 11 7 3
SanFrancisco WestCoast 0.5088 137 8 10 1
LoyolaMarymount WestCoast 0.5086 138 5 12 2
Troy SunBelt 0.5086 139 8 8 4
MississippiState SEC 0.5080 140 5 13 0
Denver Summit 0.5079 141 11 7 2
TexasState SunBelt 0.5078 142 9 7 3
Charlotte ConferenceUSA 0.5077 143 8 8 3
IndianaU BigTen 0.5074 144 4 12 3
MiamiFL ACC 0.5072 145 6 10 2
EastCarolina American 0.5067 146 7 10 3
VermontU AmericaEast 0.5059 147 9 6 4
OldDominion ConferenceUSA 0.5054 148 5 9 4
UNCGreensboro Southern 0.5050 149 8 9 3
LouisianaLafayette SunBelt 0.5042 150 11 6 3
Creighton BigEast 0.5041 151 7 7 3
HawaiiU BigWest 0.5035 152 9 7 1
Gonzaga WestCoast 0.5034 153 6 9 3
IowaU BigTen 0.5013 154 9 9 1
Cornell Ivy 0.5009 155 4 9 3
Duquesne AtlanticTen 0.5008 156 9 8 3
MurrayState OhioValley 0.5007 157 8 5 5
NewMexicoU MountainWest 0.4997 158 9 7 4
AbileneChristian Southland 0.4990 159 9 8 4
Vanderbilt SEC 0.4987 160 5 12 1
AustinPeay OhioValley 0.4986 161 10 8 2
StFrancis Northeast 0.4984 162 13 8 0
UCIrvine BigWest 0.4983 163 11 7 2
Richmond AtlanticTen 0.4979 164 9 9 2
Towson Colonial 0.4977 165 4 12 3
TennesseeMartin OhioValley 0.4975 166 10 7 3
SouthDakotaState Summit 0.4973 167 11 7 1
GrandCanyon WAC 0.4970 168 10 9 1
Purdue BigTen 0.4964 169 4 12 1
SacramentoState BigSky 0.4953 170 10 5 4
Elon Colonial 0.4952 171 8 9 2
NorthernIllinois MidAmerican 0.4948 172 6 9 4
SELouisiana Southland 0.4945 173 12 5 4
EastTennesseeState Southern 0.4942 174 12 4 4
AppalachianState SunBelt 0.4936 175 8 10 1
SetonHall BigEast 0.4935 176 5 11 1
Manhattan MetroAtlantic 0.4901 177 10 8 1
Marshall ConferenceUSA 0.4901 178 5 7 6
UtahValley WAC 0.4900 179 10 8 2
Mercer Southern 0.4880 180 8 8 4
StMarys WestCoast 0.4880 181 4 12 4
CentralArkansas Southland 0.4871 182 12 5 3
CentralConnecticut Northeast 0.4868 183 10 10 1
MichiganState BigTen 0.4863 184 6 11 1
NorthernKentucky Horizon 0.4848 185 12 6 1
OralRoberts Summit 0.4848 186 9 9 2
ColoradoCollege MountainWest 0.4844 187 8 9 2
Villanova BigEast 0.4842 188 4 13 1
DelawareU Colonial 0.4834 189 4 13 2
GeorgiaState SunBelt 0.4830 190 5 9 4
NorthernColorado BigSky 0.4819 191 11 8 1
BowlingGreen MidAmerican 0.4815 192 9 9 2
BoiseState MountainWest 0.4810 193 5 9 6
Dartmouth Ivy 0.4796 194 6 9 1
PennsylvaniaU Ivy 0.4791 195 8 5 3
StLouis AtlanticTen 0.4785 196 9 9 1
HoustonBaptist Southland 0.4784 197 10 9 1
LouisianaTech ConferenceUSA 0.4772 198 13 6 2
LoyolaChicago MissouriValley 0.4763 199 8 9 2
ColoradoU PacTwelve 0.4753 200 6 14 0
Campbell BigSouth 0.4749 201 11 7 2
Longwood BigSouth 0.4748 202 9 9 2
StonyBrook AmericaEast 0.4745 203 7 9 4
Lafayette Patriot 0.4738 204 7 6 5
Belmont OhioValley 0.4707 205 5 9 4
KennesawState AtlanticSun 0.4706 206 10 7 2
Valparaiso Horizon 0.4705 207 11 9 0
JacksonvilleU AtlanticSun 0.4703 208 6 9 1
IllinoisChicago Horizon 0.4701 209 10 7 3
MiamiOH MidAmerican 0.4700 210 6 11 2
IllinoisU BigTen 0.4662 211 5 13 1
MassachusettsU AtlanticTen 0.4662 212 4 11 2
CollegeofCharleston Colonial 0.4657 213 7 11 1
Xavier BigEast 0.4655 214 6 12 1
MiddleTennessee ConferenceUSA 0.4655 215 5 10 2
TennesseeTech OhioValley 0.4654 216 9 9 2
IUPUI Summit 0.4645 217 9 8 2
UCRiverside BigWest 0.4631 218 4 11 4
MissouriState MissouriValley 0.4621 219 6 8 4
Toledo MidAmerican 0.4618 220 7 10 2
LoyolaMD Patriot 0.4611 221 5 7 5
Pittsburgh ACC 0.4592 222 1 15 2
FIU ConferenceUSA 0.4580 223 3 9 5
RhodeIslandU AtlanticTen 0.4575 224 3 10 5
Howard Southwestern 0.4565 225 11 5 4
Evansville MissouriValley 0.4552 226 4 12 3
Drexel Colonial 0.4545 227 5 11 2
UMBC AmericaEast 0.4544 228 6 10 2
Quinnipiac MetroAtlantic 0.4525 229 9 7 2
IllinoisState MissouriValley 0.4524 230 11 8 2
Radford BigSouth 0.4511 231 7 7 2
GeorgiaSouthern SunBelt 0.4481 232 4 10 3
MaineU AmericaEast 0.4473 233 6 7 2
Pacific WestCoast 0.4467 234 1 14 2
ArkansasState SunBelt 0.4453 235 2 10 4
SouthernUtah BigSky 0.4449 236 5 10 2
MarylandU BigTen 0.4447 237 2 15 2
Houston American 0.4443 238 6 9 1
NorthFlorida AtlanticSun 0.4441 239 6 8 2
LouisianaMonroe SunBelt 0.4434 240 4 12 2
VCU AtlanticTen 0.4407 241 5 13 1
UNLV MountainWest 0.4406 242 7 12 1
Marist MetroAtlantic 0.4403 243 9 9 1
AlabamaState Southwestern 0.4400 244 10 7 3
UCDavis BigWest 0.4391 245 3 13 2
McNeeseState Southland 0.4388 246 9 9 1
JacksonState Southwestern 0.4382 247 9 6 4
EasternKentucky OhioValley 0.4381 248 6 9 2
NevadaU MountainWest 0.4380 249 5 12 1
UTSA ConferenceUSA 0.4368 250 4 14 1
CalStateBakersfield WAC 0.4363 251 6 13 1
CharlestonSouthern BigSouth 0.4362 252 6 10 2
Oakland Horizon 0.4359 253 7 10 1
Davidson AtlanticTen 0.4349 254 4 13 2
SouthernMississippi ConferenceUSA 0.4313 255 6 10 0
Army Patriot 0.4307 256 4 12 2
AirForce MountainWest 0.4303 257 6 10 2
JacksonvilleState OhioValley 0.4291 258 4 12 3
Lehigh Patriot 0.4276 259 6 10 1
Stetson AtlanticSun 0.4269 260 4 9 3
Citadel Southern 0.4268 261 8 11 0
Akron MidAmerican 0.4267 262 5 13 1
Temple American 0.4264 263 4 15 0
WeberState BigSky 0.4256 264 5 11 1
NJIT AtlanticSun 0.4234 265 6 10 2
PortlandState BigSky 0.4225 266 6 12 0
NorthwesternState Southland 0.4224 267 5 10 2
EasternMichigan MidAmerican 0.4217 268 3 14 2
UAB ConferenceUSA 0.4192 269 3 13 1
SouthDakotaU Summit 0.4147 270 5 13 1
Binghamton AmericaEast 0.4137 271 4 11 3
OhioU MidAmerican 0.4133 272 2 15 1
MississippiValley Southwestern 0.4133 273 7 7 3
WrightState Horizon 0.4116 274 3 13 2
LongIsland Northeast 0.4087 275 5 12 1
American Patriot 0.4083 276 3 13 3
Bryant Northeast 0.4073 277 7 8 3
IndianaState MissouriValley 0.4062 278 5 12 1
YoungstownState Horizon 0.4061 279 6 11 1
StBonaventure AtlanticTen 0.4031 280 2 14 3
UNOmaha Summit 0.4029 281 4 12 3
UNCAsheville BigSouth 0.4024 282 8 12 0
Wofford Southern 0.4023 283 6 13 0
VMI Southern 0.4011 284 6 14 0
Fairfield MetroAtlantic 0.4005 285 4 14 0
KansasState Independent 0.3992 286 2 12 2
Chattanooga Southern 0.3984 287 3 15 1
IncarnateWord Southland 0.3979 288 3 12 2
Wagner Northeast 0.3948 289 7 11 1
SIUEdwardsville OhioValley 0.3941 290 3 11 4
NorthernArizona BigSky 0.3938 291 4 13 2
ColoradoState MountainWest 0.3936 292 2 15 2
GardnerWebb BigSouth 0.3922 293 3 12 5
UMassLowell AmericaEast 0.3917 294 2 12 3
ClevelandState Horizon 0.3899 295 6 11 0
SamHoustonState Southland 0.3881 296 4 13 2
TexasRGV WAC 0.3872 297 8 8 1
Winthrop BigSouth 0.3866 298 3 11 3
SacredHeart Northeast 0.3853 299 5 9 4
UNI MissouriValley 0.3836 300 3 10 3
Canisius MetroAtlantic 0.3834 301 4 12 0
FairleighDickinson Northeast 0.3833 302 1 15 3
Presbyterian BigSouth 0.3811 303 2 13 2
MountStMary Northeast 0.3808 304 5 10 3
NorthDakotaU BigSky 0.3807 305 2 13 3
WesternCarolina Southern 0.3800 306 3 16 0
Lamar Southland 0.3795 307 2 14 3
TexasSouthern Southwestern 0.3764 308 3 9 3
Detroit Horizon 0.3737 309 3 12 1
NichollsState Southland 0.3713 310 4 11 1
IPFW Summit 0.3688 311 2 15 1
Iona MetroAtlantic 0.3684 312 2 14 2
ArkansasPineBluff Southwestern 0.3680 313 3 11 1
IdahoState BigSky 0.3666 314 2 17 0
PrairieViewA&M Southwestern 0.3619 315 4 11 2
Niagara MetroAtlantic 0.3614 316 3 11 2
AlabamaA&M Southwestern 0.3607 317 4 12 3
HolyCross Patriot 0.3606 318 1 16 0
WesternIllinois Summit 0.3521 319 1 14 2
NewMexicoState WAC 0.3505 320 2 15 1
EasternIllinois OhioValley 0.3428 321 2 15 0
RobertMorris Northeast 0.3378 322 2 14 2
SouthCarolinaState Independent 0.3347 323 2 12 1
GreenBay Horizon 0.3339 324 0 15 1
USCUpstate AtlanticSun 0.3302 325 0 15 2
TexasCorpusChristi Southland 0.3184 326 0 18 0
AlcornState Southwestern 0.3163 327 2 9 0
ChicagoState WAC 0.3143 328 0 15 1
StPeters MetroAtlantic 0.3084 329 1 14 1
DelawareState Independent 0.3063 330 2 13 0
Hampton Independent 0.2872 331 2 5 1
SouthernU Southwestern 0.2785 332 0 15 1
Grambling Southwestern 0.2752 333 0 11 1

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