Tuesday, September 13, 2016

2016 Season Simulation: How Teams Have Progressed

Here is a table that shows how teams' simulated rankings have changed from the initial pre-season simulation to the weekly hybrid updates that incorporate actual game results for the games already played.  Some teams have made significant moves -- both up and down -- in the simulated rankings.  The moves could be due to problems with the ratings I assigned to the teams.  Or, the moves could be due simply to upsets.

Team Simulation Updated Simulation Through 8/21 Updated Simulation Through 8/28 Updated Simulation Through 9/4 Updated Simulation Through 9/11
AbileneChristian 120 139 143 156
AirForce 286 277 270 256
Akron 245 263 260 257
AlabamaA&M 290 305 313 314
AlabamaState 225 232 242 242
AlabamaU 99 97 95 99 76
Albany 101 82 95 100
AlcornState 316 322 325 326
American 243 265 273 279
AppalachianState 197 183 176 170
ArizonaState 74 51 52 61 83
ArizonaU 40 44 33 34 38
ArkansasPineBluff 296 313 308 309
ArkansasState 262 244 246 247
ArkansasU 155 118 119 105
Army 240 239 264 253
Auburn 10 7 8 14 11
AustinPeay 181 179 168 154
BallState 70 58 61 68 54
Baylor 47 63 54 59 63
Belmont 229 217 204 199
Binghamton 315 296 284 260
BoiseState 190 185 192 187
BostonCollege 13 15 13 15 14
BostonU 26 31 37 46 71
BowlingGreen 188 204 205 193
Brown 107 106 89 75
Bryant 294 278 285 285
Bucknell 166 131 123 132
Buffalo 97 85 89 87 70
Butler 88 88 100 84 78
BYU 20 14 15 12 9
CaliforniaU 23 27 25 22 28
CalPoly 114 105 100 92
CalStateBakersfield 276 268 247 252
CalStateFullerton 121 96 111 121
CalStateNorthridge 137 143 129 116
Campbell 151 158 161 171
Canisius 306 294 304 312
CentralArkansas 171 149 156 179
CentralConnecticut 147 192 201 182
CentralMichigan 139 129 106 93
CharlestonSouthern 212 218 244 237
Charlotte 130 152 151 152
Chattanooga 292 293 287 277
ChicagoState 328 329 329 329
Cincinnati 73 69 83 70 74
Citadel 230 219 223 235
Clemson 4 4 5 5 5
ClevelandState 259 282 290 294
CoastalCarolina 55 60 58 88 80
Colgate 82 98 71 79 107
CollegeofCharleston 196 236 230 229
ColoradoCollege 227 193 185 164
ColoradoState 308 290 283 283
ColoradoU 235 237 227 202
Columbia 91 92 81 77 87
ConnecticutU 6 6 6 7 8
Cornell 161 125 133 128
Creighton 218 188 186 186
Dartmouth 220 203 206 204
Davidson 275 266 253 250
Dayton 64 87 97 110 102
DelawareState 333 333 332 330
DelawareU 100 136 147 169
Denver 143 171 137 149
DePaul 118 126 109 118
Detroit 313 315 317 319
Drake 63 73 57 52 50
Drexel 204 202 226 234
Duke 1 1 2 3 4
Duquesne 152 175 177 161
EastCarolina 102 112 125 143
EasternIllinois 329 328 327 321
EasternKentucky 295 279 254 243
EasternMichigan 270 270 263 245
EasternWashington 138 150 142 131
EastTennesseeState 116 116 145 150
Elon 163 167 157 172
Evansville 195 213 198 201
Fairfield 208 243 261 272
FairleighDickinson 307 304 314 306
FIU 199 226 241 227
FloridaAtlantic 106 100 104 114 126
FloridaGulfCoast 65 91 87 105 90
FloridaState 11 8 9 8 12
FloridaU 5 3 3 4 3
Fordham 141 128 115 98
FresnoState 165 159 152 144
Furman 90 79 77 75 82
GardnerWebb 297 309 301 296
GeorgeMason 111 123 120 110
Georgetown 21 19 17 11 7
GeorgeWashington 67 65 48 41 44
GeorgiaSouthern 200 222 235 215
GeorgiaState 203 210 229 207
GeorgiaU 36 30 32 44 45
Gonzaga 221 178 181 147
Grambling 332 332 333 333
GrandCanyon 158 172 163 167
GreenBay 320 323 324 324
Hampton 331 331 330 331
Hartford 136 110 107 113
Harvard 25 22 23 28 29
HawaiiU 182 170 141 140
HighPoint 46 49 60 67 64
Hofstra 45 47 46 53 67
HolyCross 302 302 307 307
Houston 205 199 199 213
HoustonBaptist 134 151 179 194
Howard 191 186 194 200
IdahoState 309 306 311 311
IdahoU 58 70 73 94 72
IllinoisChicago 144 166 180 216
IllinoisState 226 233 228 233
IllinoisU 133 146 148 166
IncarnateWord 250 256 275 286
IndianaState 280 283 282 282
IndianaU 174 182 187 175
Iona 287 292 300 308
IowaState 115 109 72 60
IowaU 117 114 112 122
IPFW 325 320 315 317
IUPUI 268 246 248 246
JacksonState 215 212 218 238
JacksonvilleState 293 286 281 262
JacksonvilleU 184 187 209 210
JamesMadison 35 56 66 90 99
KansasState 321 312 289 291
KansasU 169 168 158 127
KennesawState 186 189 215 218
KentState 51 48 44 36 31
KentuckyU 32 35 45 43 48
Lafayette 168 163 169 189
Lamar 257 284 291 299
LaSalle 125 147 138 135
Lehigh 298 289 276 270
Liberty 62 76 91 86 79
Lipscomb 129 120 118 120
LongBeachState 31 29 22 26 22
LongIsland 251 273 278 276
Longwood 98 145 159 197
LouisianaLafayette 77 78 99 113 124
LouisianaMonroe 271 255 267 258
LouisianaTech 167 176 191 192
Louisville 126 122 91 97
LoyolaChicago 157 191 197 208
LoyolaMarymount 236 230 190 155
LoyolaMD 206 190 208 221
LSU 19 20 30 31 36
MaineU 274 249 243 236
Manhattan 87 96 130 164 178
Marist 185 206 217 251
Marquette 78 80 75 51 57
Marshall 154 148 153 177
MarylandU 237 215 231 241
MassachusettsU 241 241 222 222
McNeeseState 216 200 220 255
Memphis 8 10 12 10 16
Mercer 146 161 170 174
MiamiFL 162 153 139 157
MiamiOH 244 240 216 196
MichiganState 170 157 183 205
MichiganU 96 101 93 94
MiddleTennessee 176 173 188 209
Milwaukee 83 83 88 80 86
MinnesotaU 29 26 24 23 23
MississippiState 213 201 172 148
MississippiU 59 55 62 66 91
MississippiValley 253 264 269 274
MissouriState 224 229 232 224
MissouriU 103 102 126 101
Monmouth 85 89 108 124 138
MontanaU 123 86 97 112
Morehead 124 117 128 114
MountStMary 322 317 318 315
MurrayState 179 160 160 151
Navy 66 75 78 82 123
NCState 207 184 132 119
NebraskaU 56 59 53 49 47
NevadaU 272 267 250 240
NewHampshireU 142 92 116 115
NewMexicoState 327 326 320 318
NewMexicoU 180 165 165 159
Niagara 279 303 312 316
NichollsState 301 297 306 313
NJIT 283 259 255 265
NorthCarolinaU 49 33 49 40 35
NorthDakotaState 156 142 134 137
NorthDakotaU 303 291 295 304
Northeastern 18 24 26 35 41
NorthernArizona 310 314 316 301
NorthernColorado 194 205 200 203
NorthernIllinois 164 155 154 145
NorthernKentucky 173 208 184 188
NorthFlorida 267 254 272 271
NorthTexas 68 64 65 71 88
NorthwesternState 255 247 257 269
NorthwesternU 150 90 96 96
NotreDame 145 121 92 65
Oakland 246 253 249 264
OhioState 44 50 41 33 33
OhioU 285 288 271 266
OklahomaState 16 18 19 20 15
OklahomaU 69 66 80 65 32
OldDominion 140 169 155 158
OralRoberts 233 224 189 191
OregonState 127 137 131 125
OregonU 153 115 102 89
Pacific 231 245 238 220
PennState 28 25 20 17 19
PennsylvaniaU 172 194 196 176
Pepperdine 42 40 38 37 39
Pittsburgh 234 242 225 223
PortlandState 265 257 262 261
PortlandU 79 62 55 57 53
PrairieViewA&M 278 301 310 310
Presbyterian 256 271 293 305
Princeton 39 41 35 32 25
Providence 112 103 73 68
Purdue 177 174 182 183
Quinnipiac 189 197 214 225
Radford 132 156 174 198
RhodeIslandU 258 250 236 232
Rice 14 12 14 18 18
Richmond 193 177 178 163
Rider 38 39 40 62 81
RobertMorris 318 327 328 327
Rutgers 30 36 21 25 24
SacramentoState 108 111 122 146
SacredHeart 304 307 302 297
Samford 52 43 47 47 42
SamHoustonState 248 272 280 295
SanDiegoState 43 42 31 42 43
SanDiegoU 201 195 167 139
SanFrancisco 187 164 171 141
SanJoseState 149 113 117 111
SantaClara 61 37 39 38 40
Seattle 57 52 56 54 69
SELouisiana 113 140 150 181
SetonHall 266 251 237 206
Siena 54 54 68 101 129
SIUEdwardsville 300 311 296 288
SMU 135 144 135 133
SouthAlabama 34 37 34 48 37
SouthCarolinaState 324 324 319 322
SouthCarolinaU 41 45 42 29 27
SouthDakotaState 223 220 211 212
SouthDakotaU 282 281 274 275
SoutheastMissouriState 84 68 51 50 49
SouthernCalifornia 7 9 10 9 6
SouthernMississippi 228 238 219 248
SouthernU 330 330 331 332
SouthernUtah 214 207 233 239
SouthFlorida 131 119 98 95
Stanford 2 2 1 1 2
StBonaventure 269 276 288 281
StephenFAustin 72 71 84 81 77
Stetson 277 287 286 289
StFrancis 92 132 149 160
StJohns 60 61 70 64 61
StJosephs 93 76 55 51
StLouis 238 225 210 195
StMarys 211 216 203 190
StonyBrook 192 211 213 211
StPeters 317 325 321 325
Syracuse 110 93 93 108 109
TCU 94 82 85 76 62
Temple 247 228 207 230
TennesseeMartin 175 198 173 162
TennesseeTech 219 214 212 180
TennesseeU 89 94 98 104 106
TexasA&M 12 13 18 16 17
TexasCorpusChristi 323 319 326 328
TexasRGV 305 308 299 292
TexasSouthern 291 300 298 298
TexasState 109 134 166 173
TexasTech 33 32 29 30 21
TexasU 128 138 130 117
Toledo 222 231 239 217
Towson 202 196 193 185
Troy 122 124 136 130
Tulsa 37 38 43 39 52
UAB 288 280 258 268
UALR 119 133 140 136
UCDavis 261 261 259 249
UCF 24 28 36 27 34
UCIrvine 178 154 162 153
UCLA 15 16 7 6 10
UCRiverside 252 235 234 228
UCSantaBarbara 76 72 64 58 56
UMassLowell 319 316 305 293
UMBC 260 227 224 226
UMKC 105 127 121 134
UNCAsheville 239 252 268 273
UNCGreensboro 160 141 144 142
UNCWilmington 71 77 69 83 85
UNI 289 299 292 302
UNLV 299 275 265 263
UNOmaha 311 295 303 300
USCUpstate 314 318 323 323
UtahState 104 99 94 78 73
UtahU 81 81 74 63 59
UtahValley 198 181 175 184
UTEP 86 86 107 103 108
UTSA 242 234 240 244
Valparaiso 210 223 221 231
Vanderbilt 148 162 146 165
VCU 273 269 277 259
VermontU 217 180 202 168
Villanova 209 209 195 214
VirginiaTech 17 17 16 24 26
VirginiaU 27 23 27 19 20
VMI 264 260 266 278
Wagner 232 262 294 290
WakeForest 75 67 63 56 55
WashingtonState 22 22 28 21 30
WashingtonU 50 53 50 45 46
WeberState 263 248 245 267
WesternCarolina 312 310 309 303
WesternIllinois 326 321 322 320
WesternKentucky 48 46 59 60 58
WesternMichigan 159 135 127 104
WestVirginiaU 3 5 4 2 1
William&Mary 53 57 67 74 84
Winthrop 254 285 297 287
WisconsinU 9 11 11 13 13
Wofford 183 221 252 254
WrightState 284 298 279 284
WyomingU 80 74 72 69 66
Xavier 281 274 251 219
Yale 95 84 79 85 103
YoungstownState 249 258 256 280

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