Monday, September 5, 2016

2016 Season Simulation: Week 3 Update

This Week 3 Update to the 2016 Season Simulation is a hybrid of (1) the actual results of the games played from the beginning of the season through Sunday, September 4 and (2) my simulated results for the balance of the season (including simulated conference tournaments).  In response to in inquiry I received: Yes, each week, the Simulation Update will come closer to what the actual end-of-season ratings, rankings, and records will be.

Team Conference Adjusted RPI ARPI Rank Total Wins Total Losses Total Ties
Stanford PacTwelve 0.7425 1 18 0 1
WestVirginiaU BigTwelve 0.7165 2 19 1 1
Duke ACC 0.7164 3 17 1 3
FloridaU SEC 0.7137 4 19 1 0
Clemson ACC 0.6971 5 17 2 2
UCLA PacTwelve 0.6855 6 13 3 3
ConnecticutU American 0.6842 7 20 2 0
FloridaState ACC 0.6799 8 16 2 1
SouthernCalifornia PacTwelve 0.6762 9 16 2 1
Memphis American 0.6684 10 15 3 3
Georgetown BigEast 0.6682 11 17 2 1
BYU WestCoast 0.6648 12 18 1 0
WisconsinU BigTen 0.6631 13 16 2 4
Auburn SEC 0.6596 14 14 5 2
BostonCollege ACC 0.6595 15 15 3 3
TexasA&M SEC 0.6467 16 15 3 2
PennState BigTen 0.6461 17 13 5 2
Rice ConferenceUSA 0.6449 18 15 2 2
VirginiaU ACC 0.6432 19 13 3 3
OklahomaState BigTwelve 0.6388 20 16 4 2
WashingtonState PacTwelve 0.6367 21 13 6 0
CaliforniaU PacTwelve 0.6365 22 16 3 1
MinnesotaU BigTen 0.6362 23 18 3 1
VirginiaTech ACC 0.6356 24 13 5 2
Rutgers BigTen 0.6338 25 13 3 4
LongBeachState BigWest 0.6333 26 15 4 1
UCF American 0.6266 27 13 5 2
Harvard Ivy 0.6254 28 12 3 1
SouthCarolinaU SEC 0.6246 29 13 5 1
TexasTech BigTwelve 0.6241 30 13 4 3
LSU SEC 0.6224 31 14 5 2
Princeton Ivy 0.6211 32 13 2 2
OhioState BigTen 0.6203 33 12 6 2
ArizonaU PacTwelve 0.6177 34 11 5 3
Northeastern Colonial 0.6162 35 15 4 2
KentState MidAmerican 0.6143 36 18 1 0
Pepperdine WestCoast 0.6129 37 15 3 1
SantaClara WestCoast 0.6116 38 11 6 2
Tulsa American 0.6115 39 13 6 2
NorthCarolinaU ACC 0.6083 40 9 6 3
GeorgeWashington AtlanticTen 0.5994 41 16 2 4
SanDiegoState MountainWest 0.5988 42 15 4 1
KentuckyU SEC 0.5963 43 8 7 5
GeorgiaU SEC 0.5949 44 8 9 2
WashingtonU PacTwelve 0.5946 45 10 7 3
BostonU Patriot 0.5932 46 12 6 3
Samford Southern 0.5914 47 12 3 5
SouthAlabama SunBelt 0.5902 48 16 3 2
NebraskaU BigTen 0.5898 49 10 8 2
SoutheastMissouriState OhioValley 0.5889 50 17 1 1
Marquette BigEast 0.5869 51 12 7 2
Drake MissouriValley 0.5862 52 16 1 3
Hofstra Colonial 0.5853 53 13 4 3
Seattle WAC 0.5820 54 14 2 4
StJosephs AtlanticTen 0.5816 55 15 2 4
WakeForest ACC 0.5804 56 12 7 0
PortlandU WestCoast 0.5796 57 13 4 2
UCSantaBarbara BigWest 0.5794 58 17 2 2
Baylor BigTwelve 0.5794 59 12 6 2
WesternKentucky ConferenceUSA 0.5785 60 14 5 2
ArizonaState PacTwelve 0.5762 61 8 8 3
Rider MetroAtlantic 0.5747 62 15 2 2
UtahU PacTwelve 0.5743 63 10 9 1
StJohns BigEast 0.5738 64 12 4 4
OklahomaU BigTwelve 0.5723 65 8 9 3
MississippiU SEC 0.5699 66 8 9 4
HighPoint BigSouth 0.5675 67 15 5 1
BallState MidAmerican 0.5670 68 16 4 2
WyomingU MountainWest 0.5661 69 15 4 2
Cincinnati American 0.5649 70 10 8 2
NorthTexas ConferenceUSA 0.5647 71 15 2 4
IowaState BigTwelve 0.5624 72 7 9 3
Providence BigEast 0.5619 73 10 9 1
William&Mary Colonial 0.5614 74 13 4 3
Furman Southern 0.5604 75 12 0 6
TCU BigTwelve 0.5603 76 11 6 1
Columbia Ivy 0.5596 77 9 4 4
UtahState MountainWest 0.5592 78 12 6 3
Colgate Patriot 0.5580 79 12 4 4
Milwaukee Horizon 0.5570 80 15 3 2
StephenFAustin Southland 0.5566 81 14 2 2
Navy Patriot 0.5556 82 14 6 2
UNCWilmington Colonial 0.5553 83 10 4 6
Butler BigEast 0.5549 84 16 4 1
Yale Ivy 0.5541 85 8 4 4
Liberty BigSouth 0.5540 86 14 6 1
Buffalo MidAmerican 0.5537 87 12 5 4
CoastalCarolina SunBelt 0.5520 88 13 5 3
Brown Ivy 0.5512 89 9 3 4
JamesMadison Colonial 0.5506 90 11 7 2
Louisville ACC 0.5504 91 8 7 3
NotreDame ACC 0.5503 92 8 9 1
MichiganU BigTen 0.5502 93 7 4 7
IdahoU BigSky 0.5501 94 14 3 3
Albany AmericaEast 0.5498 95 14 4 1
NorthwesternU BigTen 0.5496 96 12 5 2
MontanaU BigSky 0.5496 97 13 4 5
SouthFlorida American 0.5481 98 9 5 4
AlabamaU SEC 0.5474 99 8 6 5
CalPoly BigWest 0.5472 100 9 7 4
Siena MetroAtlantic 0.5471 101 12 4 4
OregonU PacTwelve 0.5466 102 6 11 3
UTEP ConferenceUSA 0.5431 103 11 3 7
TennesseeU SEC 0.5431 104 7 10 2
FloridaGulfCoast AtlanticSun 0.5429 105 15 4 0
CentralMichigan MidAmerican 0.5421 106 14 4 3
Hartford AmericaEast 0.5413 107 13 3 3
Syracuse ACC 0.5402 108 7 8 4
DePaul BigEast 0.5394 109 9 8 2
Dayton AtlanticTen 0.5392 110 16 4 1
CalStateFullerton BigWest 0.5384 111 11 7 1
IowaU BigTen 0.5371 112 11 6 2
LouisianaLafayette SunBelt 0.5351 113 14 4 2
FloridaAtlantic ConferenceUSA 0.5347 114 11 8 2
Fordham AtlanticTen 0.5347 115 10 8 2
NewHampshireU AmericaEast 0.5310 116 10 6 3
SanJoseState MountainWest 0.5310 117 9 7 5
Lipscomb AtlanticSun 0.5309 118 13 4 2
ArkansasU SEC 0.5301 119 6 11 2
GeorgeMason AtlanticTen 0.5287 120 12 7 2
UMKC WAC 0.5284 121 13 4 4
SacramentoState BigSky 0.5276 122 13 2 3
Bucknell Patriot 0.5276 123 10 5 4
Monmouth MetroAtlantic 0.5272 124 13 3 4
EastCarolina American 0.5271 125 8 9 3
MissouriU SEC 0.5266 126 8 7 4
WesternMichigan MidAmerican 0.5265 127 12 4 4
Morehead OhioValley 0.5253 128 13 6 3
CalStateNorthridge BigWest 0.5253 129 9 7 4
TexasU BigTwelve 0.5249 130 6 10 3
OregonState PacTwelve 0.5221 131 5 11 4
NCState ACC 0.5176 132 5 12 1
Cornell Ivy 0.5175 133 5 8 3
NorthDakotaState Summit 0.5161 134 12 5 2
SMU American 0.5147 135 6 11 2
Troy SunBelt 0.5142 136 9 8 4
Denver Summit 0.5137 137 11 5 4
LaSalle AtlanticTen 0.5137 138 7 7 5
MiamiFL ACC 0.5129 139 7 9 2
UALR SunBelt 0.5127 140 10 9 1
HawaiiU BigWest 0.5122 141 9 6 2
EasternWashington BigSky 0.5113 142 13 4 3
AbileneChristian Southland 0.5107 143 10 8 4
UNCGreensboro Southern 0.5098 144 8 10 3
EastTennesseeState Southern 0.5097 145 13 4 3
Vanderbilt SEC 0.5092 146 6 11 1
DelawareU Colonial 0.5091 147 6 11 2
IllinoisU BigTen 0.5076 148 8 10 1
StFrancis Northeast 0.5076 149 14 6 1
SELouisiana Southland 0.5056 150 12 4 4
Charlotte ConferenceUSA 0.5056 151 8 8 3
FresnoState MountainWest 0.5048 152 9 6 5
Marshall ConferenceUSA 0.5037 153 6 7 5
NorthernIllinois MidAmerican 0.5030 154 7 9 3
OldDominion ConferenceUSA 0.5030 155 5 9 4
CentralArkansas Southland 0.5030 156 13 5 3
Elon Colonial 0.4992 157 9 9 1
KansasU BigTwelve 0.4974 158 4 13 1
Longwood BigSouth 0.4965 159 9 8 3
MurrayState OhioValley 0.4962 160 8 5 5
Campbell BigSouth 0.4962 161 12 4 3
UCIrvine BigWest 0.4959 162 10 7 3
GrandCanyon WAC 0.4951 163 9 8 3
Manhattan MetroAtlantic 0.4950 164 10 8 1
NewMexicoU MountainWest 0.4945 165 9 7 4
TexasState SunBelt 0.4945 166 9 6 4
SanDiegoU WestCoast 0.4945 167 5 11 3
AustinPeay OhioValley 0.4936 168 10 8 2
Lafayette Patriot 0.4929 169 8 5 5
Mercer Southern 0.4924 170 8 7 4
SanFrancisco WestCoast 0.4921 171 7 11 1
MississippiState SEC 0.4915 172 4 14 0
TennesseeMartin OhioValley 0.4915 173 9 7 3
Radford BigSouth 0.4913 174 8 5 4
UtahValley WAC 0.4894 175 10 8 2
AppalachianState SunBelt 0.4893 176 8 10 1
Duquesne AtlanticTen 0.4887 177 9 9 2
Richmond AtlanticTen 0.4886 178 9 10 1
HoustonBaptist Southland 0.4870 179 10 8 1
IllinoisChicago Horizon 0.4866 180 11 5 4
Gonzaga WestCoast 0.4864 181 5 10 3
Purdue BigTen 0.4863 182 3 14 1
MichiganState BigTen 0.4860 183 6 11 1
NorthernKentucky Horizon 0.4855 184 12 6 1
ColoradoCollege MountainWest 0.4843 185 8 8 3
Creighton BigEast 0.4843 186 7 8 3
IndianaU BigTen 0.4838 187 2 13 4
MiddleTennessee ConferenceUSA 0.4836 188 6 9 2
OralRoberts Summit 0.4824 189 9 9 2
LoyolaMarymount WestCoast 0.4815 190 4 14 1
LouisianaTech ConferenceUSA 0.4811 191 12 6 2
BoiseState MountainWest 0.4795 192 5 9 6
Towson Colonial 0.4779 193 2 13 4
Howard Southwestern 0.4779 194 12 4 5
Villanova BigEast 0.4750 195 4 13 1
PennsylvaniaU Ivy 0.4727 196 8 6 2
LoyolaChicago MissouriValley 0.4727 197 7 9 3
Evansville MissouriValley 0.4718 198 5 10 4
Houston American 0.4702 199 7 8 1
NorthernColorado BigSky 0.4699 200 10 9 1
CentralConnecticut Northeast 0.4698 201 9 11 1
VermontU AmericaEast 0.4692 202 5 8 6
StMarys WestCoast 0.4691 203 2 13 5
Belmont OhioValley 0.4689 204 5 9 4
BowlingGreen MidAmerican 0.4684 205 8 9 3
Dartmouth Ivy 0.4681 206 5 10 1
Temple American 0.4680 207 7 12 0
LoyolaMD Patriot 0.4672 208 6 8 4
JacksonvilleU AtlanticSun 0.4666 209 6 8 2
StLouis AtlanticTen 0.4665 210 8 9 2
SouthDakotaState Summit 0.4659 211 9 9 1
TennesseeTech OhioValley 0.4636 212 9 10 1
StonyBrook AmericaEast 0.4619 213 6 10 4
Quinnipiac MetroAtlantic 0.4619 214 9 7 2
KennesawState AtlanticSun 0.4612 215 10 6 3
MiamiOH MidAmerican 0.4592 216 5 12 2
Marist MetroAtlantic 0.4587 217 10 7 2
JacksonState Southwestern 0.4555 218 11 6 3
SouthernMississippi ConferenceUSA 0.4541 219 6 10 0
McNeeseState Southland 0.4539 220 9 8 1
Valparaiso Horizon 0.4522 221 10 10 0
MassachusettsU AtlanticTen 0.4511 222 5 12 1
Citadel Southern 0.4507 223 9 8 2
UMBC AmericaEast 0.4504 224 6 10 2
Pittsburgh ACC 0.4503 225 1 15 2
Drexel Colonial 0.4503 226 5 12 1
ColoradoU PacTwelve 0.4494 227 3 16 1
IllinoisState MissouriValley 0.4493 228 11 9 1
GeorgiaState SunBelt 0.4490 229 4 10 3
CollegeofCharleston Colonial 0.4486 230 4 11 4
MarylandU BigTen 0.4484 231 2 15 2
MissouriState MissouriValley 0.4462 232 5 10 3
SouthernUtah BigSky 0.4461 233 5 10 2
UCRiverside BigWest 0.4458 234 2 12 5
GeorgiaSouthern SunBelt 0.4452 235 4 10 4
RhodeIslandU AtlanticTen 0.4447 236 3 11 5
SetonHall BigEast 0.4446 237 3 15 0
Pacific WestCoast 0.4445 238 1 14 2
Toledo MidAmerican 0.4444 239 6 11 2
UTSA ConferenceUSA 0.4437 240 4 14 1
FIU ConferenceUSA 0.4423 241 2 10 5
AlabamaState Southwestern 0.4417 242 10 6 4
MaineU AmericaEast 0.4391 243 6 7 2
CharlestonSouthern BigSouth 0.4382 244 6 9 3
WeberState BigSky 0.4359 245 5 10 2
ArkansasState SunBelt 0.4357 246 2 11 3
CalStateBakersfield WAC 0.4344 247 5 13 2
IUPUI Summit 0.4340 248 7 9 3
Oakland Horizon 0.4339 249 7 10 1
NevadaU MountainWest 0.4328 250 4 12 2
Xavier BigEast 0.4314 251 3 13 3
Wofford Southern 0.4307 252 8 11 0
Davidson AtlanticTen 0.4290 253 3 13 3
EasternKentucky OhioValley 0.4290 254 6 9 2
NJIT AtlanticSun 0.4290 255 6 10 2
YoungstownState Horizon 0.4288 256 7 8 3
NorthwesternState Southland 0.4274 257 5 10 2
UAB ConferenceUSA 0.4271 258 3 13 1
UCDavis BigWest 0.4250 259 1 13 4
Akron MidAmerican 0.4247 260 5 12 2
Fairfield MetroAtlantic 0.4220 261 5 13 0
PortlandState BigSky 0.4215 262 5 11 2
EasternMichigan MidAmerican 0.4215 263 3 14 2
Army Patriot 0.4202 264 3 13 2
UNLV MountainWest 0.4194 265 5 13 2
VMI Southern 0.4173 266 7 13 0
LouisianaMonroe SunBelt 0.4148 267 2 14 2
UNCAsheville BigSouth 0.4147 268 8 12 0
MississippiValley Southwestern 0.4141 269 7 7 3
AirForce MountainWest 0.4140 270 5 10 3
OhioU MidAmerican 0.4130 271 2 14 2
NorthFlorida AtlanticSun 0.4101 272 3 10 3
American Patriot 0.4098 273 3 13 3
SouthDakotaU Summit 0.4085 274 5 13 1
IncarnateWord Southland 0.4084 275 3 12 2
Lehigh Patriot 0.4078 276 4 12 1
VCU AtlanticTen 0.4072 277 3 15 1
LongIsland Northeast 0.4059 278 5 12 1
WrightState Horizon 0.4045 279 3 14 1
SamHoustonState Southland 0.4045 280 5 12 2
JacksonvilleState OhioValley 0.4003 281 2 15 3
IndianaState MissouriValley 0.4002 282 5 12 1
ColoradoState MountainWest 0.3967 283 3 15 1
Binghamton AmericaEast 0.3961 284 2 12 4
Bryant Northeast 0.3945 285 6 8 4
Stetson AtlanticSun 0.3941 286 2 11 3
Chattanooga Southern 0.3931 287 2 16 1
StBonaventure AtlanticTen 0.3922 288 1 14 4
KansasState Independent 0.3919 289 2 12 2
ClevelandState Horizon 0.3917 290 6 11 0
Lamar Southland 0.3897 291 2 14 3
UNI MissouriValley 0.3896 292 4 9 3
Presbyterian BigSouth 0.3874 293 2 11 3
Wagner Northeast 0.3872 294 7 11 1
NorthDakotaU BigSky 0.3872 295 3 13 2
SIUEdwardsville OhioValley 0.3872 296 3 12 3
Winthrop BigSouth 0.3865 297 2 13 3
TexasSouthern Southwestern 0.3857 298 3 9 3
TexasRGV WAC 0.3834 299 7 8 2
Iona MetroAtlantic 0.3820 300 2 14 2
GardnerWebb BigSouth 0.3818 301 2 11 6
SacredHeart Northeast 0.3793 302 5 9 4
UNOmaha Summit 0.3787 303 4 14 1
Canisius MetroAtlantic 0.3770 304 3 13 0
UMassLowell AmericaEast 0.3769 305 2 12 3
NichollsState Southland 0.3764 306 4 11 1
HolyCross Patriot 0.3764 307 2 15 0
ArkansasPineBluff Southwestern 0.3750 308 3 11 1
WesternCarolina Southern 0.3749 309 2 17 0
PrairieViewA&M Southwestern 0.3720 310 4 10 2
IdahoState BigSky 0.3720 311 2 17 0
Niagara MetroAtlantic 0.3689 312 4 11 2
AlabamaA&M Southwestern 0.3687 313 4 12 3
FairleighDickinson Northeast 0.3680 314 1 16 3
IPFW Summit 0.3569 315 2 15 1
NorthernArizona BigSky 0.3566 316 2 16 1
Detroit Horizon 0.3555 317 2 13 1
MountStMary Northeast 0.3479 318 3 12 3
SouthCarolinaState Independent 0.3388 319 2 12 1
NewMexicoState WAC 0.3384 320 1 16 1
StPeters MetroAtlantic 0.3373 321 2 13 1
WesternIllinois Summit 0.3370 322 1 15 1
USCUpstate AtlanticSun 0.3345 323 0 15 2
GreenBay Horizon 0.3315 324 0 15 1
AlcornState Southwestern 0.3300 325 2 9 0
TexasCorpusChristi Southland 0.3291 326 0 17 1
EasternIllinois OhioValley 0.3183 327 1 16 0
RobertMorris Northeast 0.3147 328 0 15 3
ChicagoState WAC 0.3125 329 0 15 1
Hampton Independent 0.2924 330 2 5 1
SouthernU Southwestern 0.2894 331 0 14 1
DelawareState Independent 0.2875 332 1 15 0
Grambling Southwestern 0.2708 333 0 10 1


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