Monday, September 12, 2016

2016 Season Simulation: Week 4 Update

This Week 4 Update to the 2016 Season Simulation is a hybrid of (1) the actual results of the games played from the beginning of the season through Sunday, September 11 and (2) my simulated results for the balance of the season (including simulated conference tournaments).  Starting with this week's Update since conference games now have begun, each week I will update my simulated conference tournament brackets to incorporate the results of conference games actually played.

Team Conference Adjusted RPI ARPI Rank Total Wins Total Losses Total Ties
WestVirginiaU BigTwelve 0.7402 1 20 0 1
Stanford PacTwelve 0.7313 2 17 0 2
FloridaU SEC 0.7148 3 19 1 0
Duke ACC 0.7046 4 16 2 3
Clemson ACC 0.6955 5 17 2 2
SouthernCalifornia PacTwelve 0.6773 6 16 2 1
Georgetown BigEast 0.6770 7 18 2 0
ConnecticutU American 0.6749 8 20 2 0
BYU WestCoast 0.6704 9 18 1 0
UCLA PacTwelve 0.6703 10 12 4 3
Auburn SEC 0.6649 11 14 5 2
FloridaState ACC 0.6630 12 15 3 1
WisconsinU BigTen 0.6599 13 16 2 4
BostonCollege ACC 0.6525 14 15 3 3
OklahomaState BigTwelve 0.6476 15 16 4 2
Memphis American 0.6472 16 14 4 3
TexasA&M SEC 0.6471 17 16 3 1
Rice ConferenceUSA 0.6443 18 16 2 1
PennState BigTen 0.6419 19 13 5 2
VirginiaU ACC 0.6400 20 13 4 2
TexasTech BigTwelve 0.6347 21 13 4 3
LongBeachState BigWest 0.6337 22 15 4 1
MinnesotaU BigTen 0.6327 23 18 3 1
Rutgers BigTen 0.6302 24 13 3 4
Princeton Ivy 0.6283 25 14 2 1
VirginiaTech ACC 0.6280 26 13 5 2
SouthCarolinaU SEC 0.6257 27 13 5 1
CaliforniaU PacTwelve 0.6245 28 15 4 1
Harvard Ivy 0.6244 29 12 3 1
WashingtonState PacTwelve 0.6242 30 12 6 1
KentState MidAmerican 0.6237 31 18 1 0
OklahomaU BigTwelve 0.6204 32 11 7 3
OhioState BigTen 0.6203 33 12 6 2
UCF American 0.6195 34 13 5 2
NorthCarolinaU ACC 0.6192 35 10 5 3
LSU SEC 0.6169 36 14 6 1
SouthAlabama SunBelt 0.6169 37 18 2 1
ArizonaU PacTwelve 0.6167 38 11 5 3
Pepperdine WestCoast 0.6130 39 14 3 2
SantaClara WestCoast 0.6114 40 10 6 3
Northeastern Colonial 0.6101 41 15 4 2
Samford Southern 0.6055 42 13 2 5
SanDiegoState MountainWest 0.6018 43 15 4 1
GeorgeWashington AtlanticTen 0.5982 44 16 3 3
GeorgiaU SEC 0.5962 45 8 9 2
WashingtonU PacTwelve 0.5959 46 11 7 2
NebraskaU BigTen 0.5948 47 11 8 1
KentuckyU SEC 0.5941 48 8 7 5
SoutheastMissouriState OhioValley 0.5938 49 17 1 1
Drake MissouriValley 0.5927 50 17 0 3
StJosephs AtlanticTen 0.5890 51 15 1 5
Tulsa American 0.5888 52 12 8 1
PortlandU WestCoast 0.5851 53 13 4 2
BallState MidAmerican 0.5839 54 17 4 1
WakeForest ACC 0.5827 55 12 7 0
UCSantaBarbara BigWest 0.5819 56 17 2 2
Marquette BigEast 0.5808 57 11 7 3
WesternKentucky ConferenceUSA 0.5760 58 14 5 2
UtahU PacTwelve 0.5758 59 9 9 1
IowaState BigTwelve 0.5752 60 8 9 2
StJohns BigEast 0.5748 61 12 4 4
TCU BigTwelve 0.5727 62 11 5 2
Baylor BigTwelve 0.5717 63 11 6 2
HighPoint BigSouth 0.5685 64 15 5 1
NotreDame ACC 0.5684 65 8 7 3
WyomingU MountainWest 0.5672 66 15 4 2
Hofstra Colonial 0.5669 67 12 5 3
Providence BigEast 0.5633 68 10 9 1
Seattle WAC 0.5631 69 13 4 3
Buffalo MidAmerican 0.5631 70 12 5 4
BostonU Patriot 0.5626 71 11 8 2
IdahoU BigSky 0.5621 72 15 2 3
UtahState MountainWest 0.5619 73 12 6 3
Cincinnati American 0.5612 74 10 7 3
Brown Ivy 0.5612 75 10 3 3
AlabamaU SEC 0.5608 76 9 7 4
StephenFAustin Southland 0.5601 77 16 2 0
Butler BigEast 0.5593 78 16 4 1
Liberty BigSouth 0.5574 79 15 6 0
CoastalCarolina SunBelt 0.5556 80 13 5 3
Rider MetroAtlantic 0.5554 81 14 2 3
Furman Southern 0.5550 82 12 1 5
ArizonaState PacTwelve 0.5547 83 7 9 3
William&Mary Colonial 0.5542 84 13 4 3
UNCWilmington Colonial 0.5541 85 11 4 5
Milwaukee Horizon 0.5528 86 15 3 2
Columbia Ivy 0.5523 87 8 4 5
NorthTexas ConferenceUSA 0.5515 88 14 3 4
OregonU PacTwelve 0.5500 89 7 11 2
FloridaGulfCoast AtlanticSun 0.5491 90 15 4 0
MississippiU SEC 0.5465 91 7 10 3
CalPoly BigWest 0.5461 92 9 7 4
CentralMichigan MidAmerican 0.5460 93 14 4 3
MichiganU BigTen 0.5458 94 7 4 7
SouthFlorida American 0.5457 95 9 5 4
NorthwesternU BigTen 0.5454 96 12 5 2
Louisville ACC 0.5436 97 8 8 2
Fordham AtlanticTen 0.5436 98 11 8 1
JamesMadison Colonial 0.5435 99 11 8 1
Albany AmericaEast 0.5420 100 13 5 1
MissouriU SEC 0.5410 101 9 6 4
Dayton AtlanticTen 0.5408 102 16 5 0
Yale Ivy 0.5406 103 7 5 4
WesternMichigan MidAmerican 0.5400 104 13 4 3
ArkansasU SEC 0.5389 105 7 10 2
TennesseeU SEC 0.5382 106 7 11 1
Colgate Patriot 0.5362 107 11 5 4
UTEP ConferenceUSA 0.5361 108 11 5 6
Syracuse ACC 0.5361 109 7 8 4
GeorgeMason AtlanticTen 0.5358 110 12 7 2
SanJoseState MountainWest 0.5356 111 9 6 6
MontanaU BigSky 0.5356 112 12 5 5
Hartford AmericaEast 0.5350 113 13 4 2
Morehead OhioValley 0.5338 114 13 6 3
NewHampshireU AmericaEast 0.5319 115 10 6 3
CalStateNorthridge BigWest 0.5309 116 8 6 6
TexasU BigTwelve 0.5304 117 6 10 3
DePaul BigEast 0.5298 118 8 9 2
NCState ACC 0.5298 119 6 11 1
Lipscomb AtlanticSun 0.5287 120 13 4 2
CalStateFullerton BigWest 0.5275 121 10 8 1
IowaU BigTen 0.5267 122 10 7 2
Navy Patriot 0.5267 123 12 8 2
LouisianaLafayette SunBelt 0.5220 124 13 5 2
OregonState PacTwelve 0.5216 125 5 11 4
FloridaAtlantic ConferenceUSA 0.5213 126 10 7 3
KansasU BigTwelve 0.5209 127 5 12 1
Cornell Ivy 0.5209 128 5 8 3
Siena MetroAtlantic 0.5198 129 10 5 5
Troy SunBelt 0.5196 130 9 8 4
EasternWashington BigSky 0.5188 131 14 4 2
Bucknell Patriot 0.5175 132 10 5 4
SMU American 0.5173 133 7 11 1
UMKC WAC 0.5171 134 12 5 4
LaSalle AtlanticTen 0.5160 135 7 7 5
UALR SunBelt 0.5148 136 10 9 1
NorthDakotaState Summit 0.5144 137 12 5 2
Monmouth MetroAtlantic 0.5128 138 13 4 3
SanDiegoU WestCoast 0.5118 139 6 10 3
HawaiiU BigWest 0.5112 140 9 7 1
SanFrancisco WestCoast 0.5109 141 8 10 1
UNCGreensboro Southern 0.5108 142 8 10 3
EastCarolina American 0.5105 143 7 10 3
FresnoState MountainWest 0.5081 144 9 6 5
NorthernIllinois MidAmerican 0.5075 145 7 9 3
SacramentoState BigSky 0.5074 146 11 3 4
Gonzaga WestCoast 0.5068 147 6 9 3
MississippiState SEC 0.5067 148 5 13 0
Denver Summit 0.5057 149 11 6 3
EastTennesseeState Southern 0.5049 150 12 4 4
MurrayState OhioValley 0.5048 151 8 5 5
Charlotte ConferenceUSA 0.5044 152 8 8 3
UCIrvine BigWest 0.5040 153 11 7 2
AustinPeay OhioValley 0.5033 154 10 8 2
LoyolaMarymount WestCoast 0.5024 155 5 13 1
AbileneChristian Southland 0.5017 156 10 8 4
MiamiFL ACC 0.5013 157 6 10 2
OldDominion ConferenceUSA 0.5009 158 5 9 4
NewMexicoU MountainWest 0.5002 159 9 7 4
StFrancis Northeast 0.4989 160 13 7 1
Duquesne AtlanticTen 0.4985 161 9 8 3
TennesseeMartin OhioValley 0.4981 162 9 7 3
Richmond AtlanticTen 0.4970 163 9 9 2
ColoradoCollege MountainWest 0.4969 164 9 8 2
Vanderbilt SEC 0.4965 165 5 12 1
IllinoisU BigTen 0.4959 166 7 11 1
GrandCanyon WAC 0.4946 167 10 9 1
VermontU AmericaEast 0.4943 168 7 6 6
DelawareU Colonial 0.4938 169 5 12 2
AppalachianState SunBelt 0.4938 170 8 10 1
Campbell BigSouth 0.4938 171 12 5 3
Elon Colonial 0.4934 172 8 9 2
TexasState SunBelt 0.4925 173 9 7 3
Mercer Southern 0.4912 174 8 7 4
IndianaU BigTen 0.4912 175 3 13 3
PennsylvaniaU Ivy 0.4898 176 9 5 2
Marshall ConferenceUSA 0.4894 177 5 7 6
Manhattan MetroAtlantic 0.4889 178 10 8 1
CentralArkansas Southland 0.4880 179 12 6 3
TennesseeTech OhioValley 0.4860 180 10 8 2
SELouisiana Southland 0.4859 181 11 5 4
CentralConnecticut Northeast 0.4853 182 10 10 1
Purdue BigTen 0.4851 183 3 13 1
UtahValley WAC 0.4837 184 10 9 1
Towson Colonial 0.4837 185 3 13 3
Creighton BigEast 0.4832 186 7 8 3
BoiseState MountainWest 0.4832 187 5 9 6
NorthernKentucky Horizon 0.4827 188 12 7 1
Lafayette Patriot 0.4827 189 8 6 4
StMarys WestCoast 0.4827 190 3 13 4
OralRoberts Summit 0.4803 191 9 9 2
LouisianaTech ConferenceUSA 0.4795 192 12 6 2
BowlingGreen MidAmerican 0.4793 193 9 9 2
HoustonBaptist Southland 0.4773 194 10 8 1
StLouis AtlanticTen 0.4773 195 9 9 1
MiamiOH MidAmerican 0.4766 196 6 11 2
Longwood BigSouth 0.4765 197 8 9 3
Radford BigSouth 0.4750 198 7 5 4
Belmont OhioValley 0.4742 199 5 9 4
Howard Southwestern 0.4731 200 12 4 5
Evansville MissouriValley 0.4728 201 5 11 3
ColoradoU PacTwelve 0.4720 202 5 14 1
NorthernColorado BigSky 0.4707 203 10 9 1
Dartmouth Ivy 0.4690 204 5 10 1
MichiganState BigTen 0.4684 205 5 12 1
SetonHall BigEast 0.4681 206 4 13 0
GeorgiaState SunBelt 0.4679 207 5 9 3
LoyolaChicago MissouriValley 0.4675 208 7 10 2
MiddleTennessee ConferenceUSA 0.4664 209 5 10 2
JacksonvilleU AtlanticSun 0.4662 210 6 8 2
StonyBrook AmericaEast 0.4654 211 6 10 4
SouthDakotaState Summit 0.4653 212 9 9 1
Houston American 0.4647 213 7 8 1
Villanova BigEast 0.4642 214 3 14 1
GeorgiaSouthern SunBelt 0.4633 215 5 10 3
IllinoisChicago Horizon 0.4622 216 10 6 3
Toledo MidAmerican 0.4622 217 7 10 2
KennesawState AtlanticSun 0.4611 218 10 7 2
Xavier BigEast 0.4581 219 5 11 3
Pacific WestCoast 0.4580 220 1 13 3
LoyolaMD Patriot 0.4573 221 5 8 4
MassachusettsU AtlanticTen 0.4572 222 4 12 1
Pittsburgh ACC 0.4563 223 1 15 2
MissouriState MissouriValley 0.4557 224 6 9 3
Quinnipiac MetroAtlantic 0.4548 225 9 7 2
UMBC AmericaEast 0.4540 226 6 10 2
FIU ConferenceUSA 0.4535 227 3 9 5
UCRiverside BigWest 0.4526 228 3 12 4
CollegeofCharleston Colonial 0.4525 229 5 11 3
Temple American 0.4521 230 6 13 0
Valparaiso Horizon 0.4510 231 10 10 0
RhodeIslandU AtlanticTen 0.4507 232 3 11 5
IllinoisState MissouriValley 0.4484 233 11 9 1
Drexel Colonial 0.4480 234 5 12 1
Citadel Southern 0.4477 235 9 9 1
MaineU AmericaEast 0.4455 236 6 7 2
CharlestonSouthern BigSouth 0.4437 237 6 9 3
JacksonState Southwestern 0.4435 238 10 6 3
SouthernUtah BigSky 0.4431 239 5 10 2
NevadaU MountainWest 0.4428 240 5 12 1
MarylandU BigTen 0.4421 241 2 15 2
AlabamaState Southwestern 0.4419 242 9 6 4
EasternKentucky OhioValley 0.4399 243 6 9 2
UTSA ConferenceUSA 0.4397 244 4 14 1
EasternMichigan MidAmerican 0.4396 245 4 13 2
IUPUI Summit 0.4369 246 7 9 3
ArkansasState SunBelt 0.4363 247 2 11 3
SouthernMississippi ConferenceUSA 0.4362 248 5 10 0
UCDavis BigWest 0.4358 249 2 13 3
Davidson AtlanticTen 0.4349 250 4 13 2
Marist MetroAtlantic 0.4341 251 9 9 1
CalStateBakersfield WAC 0.4319 252 5 13 2
Army Patriot 0.4300 253 4 12 2
Wofford Southern 0.4299 254 8 11 0
McNeeseState Southland 0.4298 255 8 9 1
AirForce MountainWest 0.4277 256 6 10 2
Akron MidAmerican 0.4272 257 5 13 1
LouisianaMonroe SunBelt 0.4271 258 3 13 2
VCU AtlanticTen 0.4262 259 4 14 1
Binghamton AmericaEast 0.4254 260 4 10 4
PortlandState BigSky 0.4243 261 6 12 0
JacksonvilleState OhioValley 0.4232 262 3 13 3
UNLV MountainWest 0.4224 263 5 13 2
Oakland Horizon 0.4221 264 6 10 2
NJIT AtlanticSun 0.4221 265 6 10 2
OhioU MidAmerican 0.4216 266 2 14 2
WeberState BigSky 0.4215 267 4 11 2
UAB ConferenceUSA 0.4178 268 3 13 1
NorthwesternState Southland 0.4174 269 5 10 2
Lehigh Patriot 0.4158 270 5 11 1
NorthFlorida AtlanticSun 0.4152 271 4 10 2
Fairfield MetroAtlantic 0.4141 272 5 13 0
UNCAsheville BigSouth 0.4117 273 8 12 0
MississippiValley Southwestern 0.4114 274 7 7 3
SouthDakotaU Summit 0.4107 275 5 13 1
LongIsland Northeast 0.4061 276 5 12 1
Chattanooga Southern 0.4057 277 3 15 1
VMI Southern 0.4056 278 6 14 0
American Patriot 0.4042 279 3 13 3
YoungstownState Horizon 0.4039 280 6 10 2
StBonaventure AtlanticTen 0.4027 281 2 14 3
IndianaState MissouriValley 0.4025 282 5 12 1
ColoradoState MountainWest 0.4012 283 3 15 1
WrightState Horizon 0.4001 284 3 14 1
Bryant Northeast 0.3989 285 6 8 4
IncarnateWord Southland 0.3987 286 3 12 2
Winthrop BigSouth 0.3957 287 3 12 3
SIUEdwardsville OhioValley 0.3930 288 3 12 3
Stetson AtlanticSun 0.3930 289 2 11 3
Wagner Northeast 0.3907 290 7 11 1
KansasState Independent 0.3904 291 2 12 2
TexasRGV WAC 0.3876 292 8 8 1
UMassLowell AmericaEast 0.3853 293 2 12 3
ClevelandState Horizon 0.3851 294 6 11 0
SamHoustonState Southland 0.3838 295 4 13 2
GardnerWebb BigSouth 0.3836 296 2 11 6
SacredHeart Northeast 0.3826 297 5 9 4
TexasSouthern Southwestern 0.3820 298 3 9 3
Lamar Southland 0.3809 299 2 14 3
UNOmaha Summit 0.3802 300 4 14 1
NorthernArizona BigSky 0.3790 301 3 14 2
UNI MissouriValley 0.3761 302 3 10 3
WesternCarolina Southern 0.3761 303 2 17 0
NorthDakotaU BigSky 0.3758 304 2 13 3
Presbyterian BigSouth 0.3744 305 2 12 2
FairleighDickinson Northeast 0.3734 306 1 15 3
HolyCross Patriot 0.3726 307 2 15 0
Iona MetroAtlantic 0.3710 308 2 14 2
ArkansasPineBluff Southwestern 0.3704 309 3 11 1
PrairieViewA&M Southwestern 0.3698 310 4 10 2
IdahoState BigSky 0.3695 311 2 17 0
Canisius MetroAtlantic 0.3692 312 3 13 0
NichollsState Southland 0.3684 313 4 11 1
AlabamaA&M Southwestern 0.3681 314 4 12 3
MountStMary Northeast 0.3610 315 4 11 3
Niagara MetroAtlantic 0.3604 316 3 11 2
IPFW Summit 0.3599 317 2 15 1
NewMexicoState WAC 0.3580 318 2 14 2
Detroit Horizon 0.3501 319 2 13 1
WesternIllinois Summit 0.3462 320 1 14 2
EasternIllinois OhioValley 0.3420 321 2 15 0
SouthCarolinaState Independent 0.3390 322 2 12 1
USCUpstate AtlanticSun 0.3321 323 0 15 2
GreenBay Horizon 0.3278 324 0 15 1
StPeters MetroAtlantic 0.3260 325 2 13 1
AlcornState Southwestern 0.3247 326 2 9 0
RobertMorris Northeast 0.3203 327 1 15 2
TexasCorpusChristi Southland 0.3149 328 0 18 0
ChicagoState WAC 0.3098 329 0 15 1
DelawareState Independent 0.2923 330 1 14 0
Hampton Independent 0.2912 331 2 5 1
SouthernU Southwestern 0.2821 332 0 14 1
Grambling Southwestern 0.2675 333 0 10 1

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