Tuesday, September 20, 2016

2016 Season Simulation: How Teams Have Progressed, Through 9/18

Here is a table that shows how teams' simulated rankings have changed from the initial pre-season simulation to the weekly hybrid updates that incorporate actual game results for the games already played.  This covers the weeks through games played September 18.  Some teams have made significant moves -- both up and down -- in the simulated rankings.  The moves could be due to problems with the ratings I assigned to the teams.  Or, the moves could be due simply to upsets.

Team Simulation Updated Simulation Through 8/21 Updated Simulation Through 8/28 Updated Simulation Through 9/4 Updated Simulation Through 9/11 Updated Simulation Through 9/18
AbileneChristian 120 139 143 156 159
AirForce 286 277 270 256 257
Akron 245 263 260 257 262
AlabamaA&M 290 305 313 314 317
AlabamaState 225 232 242 242 244
AlabamaU 99 97 95 99 76 76
Albany 101 82 95 100 106
AlcornState 316 322 325 326 327
American 243 265 273 279 276
AppalachianState 197 183 176 170 175
ArizonaState 74 51 52 61 83 92
ArizonaU 40 44 33 34 38 41
ArkansasPineBluff 296 313 308 309 313
ArkansasState 262 244 246 247 235
ArkansasU 155 118 119 105 69
Army 240 239 264 253 256
Auburn 10 7 8 14 11 13
AustinPeay 181 179 168 154 161
BallState 70 58 61 68 54 54
Baylor 47 63 54 59 63 55
Belmont 229 217 204 199 205
Binghamton 315 296 284 260 271
BoiseState 190 185 192 187 193
BostonCollege 13 15 13 15 14 18
BostonU 26 31 37 46 71 98
BowlingGreen 188 204 205 193 192
Brown 107 106 89 75 95
Bryant 294 278 285 285 277
Bucknell 166 131 123 132 117
Buffalo 97 85 89 87 70 81
Butler 88 88 100 84 78 66
BYU 20 14 15 12 9 9
CaliforniaU 23 27 25 22 28 27
CalPoly 114 105 100 92 122
CalStateBakersfield 276 268 247 252 251
CalStateFullerton 121 96 111 121 133
CalStateNorthridge 137 143 129 116 110
Campbell 151 158 161 171 201
Canisius 306 294 304 312 301
CentralArkansas 171 149 156 179 182
CentralConnecticut 147 192 201 182 183
CentralMichigan 139 129 106 93 97
CharlestonSouthern 212 218 244 237 252
Charlotte 130 152 151 152 143
Chattanooga 292 293 287 277 287
ChicagoState 328 329 329 329 328
Cincinnati 73 69 83 70 74 86
Citadel 230 219 223 235 261
Clemson 4 4 5 5 5 6
ClevelandState 259 282 290 294 295
CoastalCarolina 55 60 58 88 80 78
Colgate 82 98 71 79 107 119
CollegeofCharleston 196 236 230 229 213
ColoradoCollege 227 193 185 164 187
ColoradoState 308 290 283 283 292
ColoradoU 235 237 227 202 200
Columbia 91 92 81 77 87 114
ConnecticutU 6 6 6 7 8 10
Cornell 161 125 133 128 155
Creighton 218 188 186 186 151
Dartmouth 220 203 206 204 194
Davidson 275 266 253 250 254
Dayton 64 87 97 110 102 100
DelawareState 333 333 332 330 330
DelawareU 100 136 147 169 189
Denver 143 171 137 149 141
DePaul 118 126 109 118 104
Detroit 313 315 317 319 309
Drake 63 73 57 52 50 53
Drexel 204 202 226 234 227
Duke 1 1 2 3 4 4
Duquesne 152 175 177 161 156
EastCarolina 102 112 125 143 146
EasternIllinois 329 328 327 321 321
EasternKentucky 295 279 254 243 248
EasternMichigan 270 270 263 245 268
EasternWashington 138 150 142 131 130
EastTennesseeState 116 116 145 150 174
Elon 163 167 157 172 171
Evansville 195 213 198 201 226
Fairfield 208 243 261 272 285
FairleighDickinson 307 304 314 306 302
FIU 199 226 241 227 223
FloridaAtlantic 106 100 104 114 126 128
FloridaGulfCoast 65 91 87 105 90 80
FloridaState 11 8 9 8 12 11
FloridaU 5 3 3 4 3 5
Fordham 141 128 115 98 85
FresnoState 165 159 152 144 134
Furman 90 79 77 75 82 93
GardnerWebb 297 309 301 296 293
GeorgeMason 111 123 120 110 79
Georgetown 21 19 17 11 7 3
GeorgeWashington 67 65 48 41 44 45
GeorgiaSouthern 200 222 235 215 232
GeorgiaState 203 210 229 207 190
GeorgiaU 36 30 32 44 45 44
Gonzaga 221 178 181 147 153
Grambling 332 332 333 333 333
GrandCanyon 158 172 163 167 168
GreenBay 320 323 324 324 324
Hampton 331 331 330 331 331
Hartford 136 110 107 113 108
Harvard 25 22 23 28 29 35
HawaiiU 182 170 141 140 152
HighPoint 46 49 60 67 64 61
Hofstra 45 47 46 53 67 68
HolyCross 302 302 307 307 318
Houston 205 199 199 213 238
HoustonBaptist 134 151 179 194 197
Howard 191 186 194 200 225
IdahoState 309 306 311 311 314
IdahoU 58 70 73 94 72 89
IllinoisChicago 144 166 180 216 209
IllinoisState 226 233 228 233 230
IllinoisU 133 146 148 166 211
IncarnateWord 250 256 275 286 288
IndianaState 280 283 282 282 278
IndianaU 174 182 187 175 144
Iona 287 292 300 308 312
IowaState 115 109 72 60 56
IowaU 117 114 112 122 154
IPFW 325 320 315 317 311
IUPUI 268 246 248 246 217
JacksonState 215 212 218 238 247
JacksonvilleState 293 286 281 262 258
JacksonvilleU 184 187 209 210 208
JamesMadison 35 56 66 90 99 99
KansasState 321 312 289 291 286
KansasU 169 168 158 127 111
KennesawState 186 189 215 218 206
KentState 51 48 44 36 31 30
KentuckyU 32 35 45 43 48 47
Lafayette 168 163 169 189 204
Lamar 257 284 291 299 307
LaSalle 125 147 138 135 125
Lehigh 298 289 276 270 259
Liberty 62 76 91 86 79 96
Lipscomb 129 120 118 120 113
LongBeachState 31 29 22 26 22 33
LongIsland 251 273 278 276 275
Longwood 98 145 159 197 202
LouisianaLafayette 77 78 99 113 124 150
LouisianaMonroe 271 255 267 258 240
LouisianaTech 167 176 191 192 198
Louisville 126 122 91 97 90
LoyolaChicago 157 191 197 208 199
LoyolaMarymount 236 230 190 155 138
LoyolaMD 206 190 208 221 221
LSU 19 20 30 31 36 36
MaineU 274 249 243 236 233
Manhattan 87 96 130 164 178 177
Marist 185 206 217 251 243
Marquette 78 80 75 51 57 49
Marshall 154 148 153 177 178
MarylandU 237 215 231 241 237
MassachusettsU 241 241 222 222 212
McNeeseState 216 200 220 255 246
Memphis 8 10 12 10 16 17
Mercer 146 161 170 174 180
MiamiFL 162 153 139 157 145
MiamiOH 244 240 216 196 210
MichiganState 170 157 183 205 184
MichiganU 96 101 93 94 74
MiddleTennessee 176 173 188 209 215
Milwaukee 83 83 88 80 86 77
MinnesotaU 29 26 24 23 23 29
MississippiState 213 201 172 148 140
MississippiU 59 55 62 66 91 71
MississippiValley 253 264 269 274 273
MissouriState 224 229 232 224 219
MissouriU 103 102 126 101 115
Monmouth 85 89 108 124 138 131
MontanaU 123 86 97 112 120
Morehead 124 117 128 114 136
MountStMary 322 317 318 315 304
MurrayState 179 160 160 151 157
Navy 66 75 78 82 123 121
NCState 207 184 132 119 88
NebraskaU 56 59 53 49 47 48
NevadaU 272 267 250 240 249
NewHampshireU 142 92 116 115 112
NewMexicoState 327 326 320 318 320
NewMexicoU 180 165 165 159 158
Niagara 279 303 312 316 316
NichollsState 301 297 306 313 310
NJIT 283 259 255 265 265
NorthCarolinaU 49 33 49 40 35 38
NorthDakotaState 156 142 134 137 129
NorthDakotaU 303 291 295 304 305
Northeastern 18 24 26 35 41 37
NorthernArizona 310 314 316 301 291
NorthernColorado 194 205 200 203 191
NorthernIllinois 164 155 154 145 172
NorthernKentucky 173 208 184 188 185
NorthFlorida 267 254 272 271 239
NorthTexas 68 64 65 71 88 70
NorthwesternState 255 247 257 269 267
NorthwesternU 150 90 96 96 87
NotreDame 145 121 92 65 65
Oakland 246 253 249 264 253
OhioState 44 50 41 33 33 25
OhioU 285 288 271 266 272
OklahomaState 16 18 19 20 15 15
OklahomaU 69 66 80 65 32 22
OldDominion 140 169 155 158 148
OralRoberts 233 224 189 191 186
OregonState 127 137 131 125 109
OregonU 153 115 102 89 91
Pacific 231 245 238 220 234
PennState 28 25 20 17 19 12
PennsylvaniaU 172 194 196 176 195
Pepperdine 42 40 38 37 39 43
Pittsburgh 234 242 225 223 222
PortlandState 265 257 262 261 266
PortlandU 79 62 55 57 53 64
PrairieViewA&M 278 301 310 310 315
Presbyterian 256 271 293 305 303
Princeton 39 41 35 32 25 31
Providence 112 103 73 68 67
Purdue 177 174 182 183 169
Quinnipiac 189 197 214 225 229
Radford 132 156 174 198 231
RhodeIslandU 258 250 236 232 224
Rice 14 12 14 18 18 24
Richmond 193 177 178 163 164
Rider 38 39 40 62 81 84
RobertMorris 318 327 328 327 322
Rutgers 30 36 21 25 24 20
SacramentoState 108 111 122 146 170
SacredHeart 304 307 302 297 299
Samford 52 43 47 47 42 39
SamHoustonState 248 272 280 295 296
SanDiegoState 43 42 31 42 43 46
SanDiegoU 201 195 167 139 124
SanFrancisco 187 164 171 141 137
SanJoseState 149 113 117 111 116
SantaClara 61 37 39 38 40 40
Seattle 57 52 56 54 69 72
SELouisiana 113 140 150 181 173
SetonHall 266 251 237 206 176
Siena 54 54 68 101 129 132
SIUEdwardsville 300 311 296 288 290
SMU 135 144 135 133 123
SouthAlabama 34 37 34 48 37 26
SouthCarolinaState 324 324 319 322 323
SouthCarolinaU 41 45 42 29 27 19
SouthDakotaState 223 220 211 212 167
SouthDakotaU 282 281 274 275 270
SoutheastMissouriState 84 68 51 50 49 58
SouthernCalifornia 7 9 10 9 6 8
SouthernMississippi 228 238 219 248 255
SouthernU 330 330 331 332 332
SouthernUtah 214 207 233 239 236
SouthFlorida 131 119 98 95 103
Stanford 2 2 1 1 2 2
StBonaventure 269 276 288 281 280
StephenFAustin 72 71 84 81 77 73
Stetson 277 287 286 289 260
StFrancis 92 132 149 160 162
StJohns 60 61 70 64 61 51
StJosephs 93 76 55 51 42
StLouis 238 225 210 195 196
StMarys 211 216 203 190 181
StonyBrook 192 211 213 211 203
StPeters 317 325 321 325 329
Syracuse 110 93 93 108 109 107
TCU 94 82 85 76 62 60
Temple 247 228 207 230 263
TennesseeMartin 175 198 173 162 166
TennesseeTech 219 214 212 180 216
TennesseeU 89 94 98 104 106 105
TexasA&M 12 13 18 16 17 21
TexasCorpusChristi 323 319 326 328 326
TexasRGV 305 308 299 292 297
TexasSouthern 291 300 298 298 308
TexasState 109 134 166 173 142
TexasTech 33 32 29 30 21 23
TexasU 128 138 130 117 83
Toledo 222 231 239 217 220
Towson 202 196 193 185 165
Troy 122 124 136 130 139
Tulsa 37 38 43 39 52 57
UAB 288 280 258 268 269
UALR 119 133 140 136 127
UCDavis 261 261 259 249 245
UCF 24 28 36 27 34 32
UCIrvine 178 154 162 153 163
UCLA 15 16 7 6 10 7
UCRiverside 252 235 234 228 218
UCSantaBarbara 76 72 64 58 56 59
UMassLowell 319 316 305 293 294
UMBC 260 227 224 226 228
UMKC 105 127 121 134 135
UNCAsheville 239 252 268 273 282
UNCGreensboro 160 141 144 142 149
UNCWilmington 71 77 69 83 85 101
UNI 289 299 292 302 300
UNLV 299 275 265 263 242
UNOmaha 311 295 303 300 281
USCUpstate 314 318 323 323 325
UtahState 104 99 94 78 73 75
UtahU 81 81 74 63 59 63
UtahValley 198 181 175 184 179
UTEP 86 86 107 103 108 118
UTSA 242 234 240 244 250
Valparaiso 210 223 221 231 207
Vanderbilt 148 162 146 165 160
VCU 273 269 277 259 241
VermontU 217 180 202 168 147
Villanova 209 209 195 214 188
VirginiaTech 17 17 16 24 26 34
VirginiaU 27 23 27 19 20 14
VMI 264 260 266 278 284
Wagner 232 262 294 290 289
WakeForest 75 67 63 56 55 50
WashingtonState 22 22 28 21 30 28
WashingtonU 50 53 50 45 46 52
WeberState 263 248 245 267 264
WesternCarolina 312 310 309 303 306
WesternIllinois 326 321 322 320 319
WesternKentucky 48 46 59 60 58 62
WesternMichigan 159 135 127 104 94
WestVirginiaU 3 5 4 2 1 1
William&Mary 53 57 67 74 84 102
Winthrop 254 285 297 287 298
WisconsinU 9 11 11 13 13 16
Wofford 183 221 252 254 283
WrightState 284 298 279 284 274
WyomingU 80 74 72 69 66 82
Xavier 281 274 251 219 214
Yale 95 84 79 85 103 126
YoungstownState 249 258 256 280 279

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