Friday, November 16, 2018

2018 NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET ANALYSIS: CONCLUSIONS

This year, some teams presented profiles to the Committee that forced it to decide how important teams' conference standings -- both regular season and conference tournament -- are for seeding and at large selection purposes.  The Committee's having to make this decision set an over-arching theme for the bracket formation process and, for the 11 years' I've been analyzing the Committee's decisions, created a watershed moment.

Fundamentally, the numbers show the Committee decided that for the top 5 conferences -- the so called "Power" conferences -- where teams finished in their conference standings matters very little.  And conversely, for all the other conferences it matters a lot.

Here are examples illustrating this:

#1 seed Florida State:  It finished #7 in the ACC's regular season standings and #1 in the conference tournament for an average of #4.  The ACC was the #3 ARPI conference.  In giving Florida State a #1 seed, the Committee effectively concluded its #7 regular season conference finishing position was not worth much weight.

#2 seed Tennessee:  It finished #2 in the SEC's regular season standings and #6.5 in the conference tournament (exited in the quarter-finals) for an average of #4.25.  The SEC was the #2 conference.  In giving Tennessee a #2 seed, the Committee effectively concluded its #6.5 conference tournament finishing position was not worth much weight.

#2 seed not going to Southern California:  It finished #3 in the Pac 12's standings.  The Pac 12 was the #4 conference.  The Committee's not giving Southern California a #2 seed and instead giving one to Tennessee highlights that the Committee effectively concluded Tennessee's conference tournament finishing position was not worth much weight, Tennessee being from a better ranked conference.

#2 seed not going to Santa Clara:  It finished #2 in the West Coast Conference's standings.  The WC was the #8 conference.  The Committee's not giving Santa Clara a #2 seed and instead giving one to Tennessee again highlights that the Committee effectively concluded Tennessee's conference tournament finishing position was not worth much weight.

#3 seed Texas A&M:  It finished #4.5 in the SEC's regular season standings and #6.5 in the conference tournament (exited in the quarter-finals) for an average of #5.5.  The SEC was the #2 conference.  In giving Texas A&M a #3 seed, the Committee effectively concluded its conference standing was not worth much weight.

#3 seed not going to Southern California:  It finished #3 in the Pac 12's standings.  The Pac 12 was the #4 conference.  The Committee's not giving Southern California a #3 seed and instead giving one to Texas A&M highlights that the Committee effectively concluded Texas A&M's conference standing was not worth much weight, Texas A&M being from a better ranked conference.

#4 seeds not going to Memphis or South Florida:  South Florida finished #1 and Memphis #2 in the American regular season standings and they reversed positions in the conference tournament, giving each an average of #1.5.  The American was the #7 conference.  They were the only non-Power 5 teams in competition for #4 seeds, but neither got one.  Boston College, on the other hand, got a #4 seed with a #5.25 average standing in the #3 ACC.  This highlights that the Committee effectively concluded Boston College's conference standing was not worth much weight.

At Large Selection Mississippi State:  It finished #11.5 (tied for 11-12) in the SEC.  The SEC was the #2 conference.  The Committee effectively concluded Mississippi State's conference standing was not worth much weight.

At Large Selection North Carolina State:  It finished #11 in the ACC.  The ACC was the #3 conference.  The Committee effectively concluded NC State's conference standing was not worth much weight.

At Large Selection Wake Forest:  It finished #9.5 (tied for 9-10) in the ACC.  The ACC was the #3 conference.  The Committee effectively concluded Wake Forest's conference standing was not worth much weight.

At Large Selection Northwestern:  It finished #9 in the Big 10.  The Big Ten was the #5 conference and the last of the Power 5 conferences.  The Committee effectively concluded that Northwestern's conference standing was not worth much weight.

Other At Large Selections:  Of the other other teams that were reasonable candidates for at large selections, those with the best conference standings were Butler, which finished #2 in the #6 Big East, and Pepperdine, which finished #3 in the #8 West Coast.  Neither got an at large selection.  Instead, the selections went to Wisconsin, which finished #5.0 in the #5 Big 10; Ohio State, which finished #5.0 in the #5 Big Ten; Mississippi, which finished #5.5 in the #2 SEC; Louisville, which finished #6 in the #3 ACC; and Virginia Tech, which finished #7.5 in the #3 ACC.  The Committee effectively concluded that these selected teams' conference standings were not worth much weight.

Overall, simply put, the Committee sent this message:  If you're a team from a top 5 conference (i.e., from a Power conference), where you finish in your conference standings is not likely to hurt you.  On the other hand, if you're in a conference outside the top 5, anything short of being conference champion is likely to hurt you.

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