This year, of the 16 seeded teams, 12 were at large selections. Here are those teams with their ratings, followed by the number of "yes" at large standards and "no" at large standards they met:
#3 North Carolina: 68/0
#5 Baylor: 65/0
#7 UCLA: 45/0
#8 Southern California: 53/0
#9 Tennessee: 32/0
#10 Texas A&M: 38/0
#11 Duke: 45/0
#12 Santa Clara: 54/0
#13 Texas: 60/0
#15 Virginia: 36/0
#18 South Carolina: 30/0
#25 Boston College: 34/0
With those 12 teams seeded, this left the Committee to make 21 additional at large selections.
There were 12 teams that met at least 1 "yes" standard and no "no" standards. They all received at large selections:
#13 Rutgers: 11/0
#16 South Florida: 35/0
#19 TCU: 17/0
#21 Vanderbilt: 30/0
#22 Penn State: 32/0
#23 Kansas: 31/0
#26 Arkansas: 45/0
#28 Auburn: 18-0
#29 Arizona: 14/0
#32 Washington State: 11/0
#34 Texas Tech: 5/0
#46 Clemson: 14/0
These 12, with the seeded 12, add up to 24, leaving the Committee with 9 more selections to make.
The Committee had 2 teams that met large numbers of "yes" standards but also smaller numbers of "no" standards, thus presenting profiles it hasn't seen over the last 11 years. They are NC State, which met 32 "yes" standards and 4 "no" standards; and Mississippi State, which met 31 "yes" standards and 5 "no" standards. The Committee gave both of them at large selections. Going through all of the "yes" and "no" standards they met will be tedious, but it's important to understanding the Committee's decision.
#17 Mississippi State. Met 31 "yes" standards and 5 "no" standards.
Here are the "yes" standards Mississippi State met:
Yes Standard 1: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's ARPI Rating. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is a rating of >=.5989. Mississippi State's ARPI Rating was .6216, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 2: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's ARPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is a rating of <=30. Mississippi State's ARPI Rank was 17, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 3: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is a rating of >=.6247. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rating was .7043, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 4: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's ANCRPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is a rank of <=9. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 14: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its ARPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.3848. Mississippi State's ARPI Rating was .6216 and its ARPI Rank was 17, together producing a score of 3.5399, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 15: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its ANCRPI Rating. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=1.7191. Mississippi State's ARPI Rating was .6216 and its ANCRPI Rating was .7043, together producing a score of 1.8282, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 16: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its ANCRPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.4543. Mississippi State's ARPI Rating was .6216 and its ANCRPI Rank was 1, together producing a score of 4.5432, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 17: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=245535. Mississippi State's ARPI Rating was .6216 and its Top 50 Results Score was 1248, together producing a score of 245541.8, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 18: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.3704. Mississippi State's ARPI Rating was .6216 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 35, together producing a score of 3.5096, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 20: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Conference ARPI. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=1.2051. Mississippi State's ARPI Rating was .6216 and its Conference ARPI was .5879, together producing a score of 1.2095, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 24: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.3867. Mississippi State's ARPI Rating was .6216 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank was 55, together producing a score of 3.4992, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 25: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Last Eight Games Results score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=108.3332. Mississippi State's ARPI Rating was .6216 and its Last Eight Games Results score was 0, together producing a score of 113.1335, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 26: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1787. Mississippi State's ARPI Rank was 17 and its ANCRPI Rating was .7093, together producing a score of 2.3286, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 27: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=128.6. Mississippi State's ARPI Rank was 17 and its ANCRPI Rank was 1, together producing a score of 62.2, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 29: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=59.0. Mississippi State's ARPI Rank was 17 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 35.0, together producing a score of 52.0, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 32: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Conference Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=43.1. Mississippi State's ARPI Rank was 17 and its Conference Rank was 2, together producing a score of 21.2, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 36: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Last Eight Games Results score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=1.0000. Mississippi State's ARPI Rank was 17 and its Last Eight Games Results score was 0, together producing a score of 1.9412, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 37: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its ANCRPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.2597. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rating was .7093 and its ANCRPI Rank was 1, together producing a score of 3.2698, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 38: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=155126. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rating was .7093 and its Top 50 Results Score was 1248, together producing a score of 160131, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 39: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1814. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rating was .7093 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 35, together producing a score of 2.2983, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 41: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Conference ARPI. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=1.7552. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rating was .7093 and its Conference ARPI was .5879, together producing a score of 1.7675, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 44: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=44.3475. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rating was .7093 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results score was -4.24, together producing a score of 44.7064, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 45: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1762. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rating was .7093 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank was 55, together producing a score of 2.2879, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 46: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Last Eight Games Results score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=66.5629. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rating was .7093 and its Last Eight Games Results score was 0, together producing a score of 73.7672, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 47: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=18192. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Top 50 Results Score was 1248, together producing a score of 71248, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 50: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Conference ARPI. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.5362. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Conference ARPI was .5879, together producing a score of 4.2921, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 51: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Conference Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=17.4. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Conference Rank was 2, together producing a score of 16.4, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 52: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Top 60 Head to Head Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.2000. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Top 60 Head to Head Results Score was -1.00, together producing a score of 3.00, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 53: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=1.0158. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Score was -4.24, together producing a score of 16.7647, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 55: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Last Eight Games Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1333. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Last Eight Games Results Score was 0, together producing a score of 32.0000, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 70: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Top 50 Results Rank and its Last Eight Games Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=.7500. Mississippi State's Top 50 Results Rank was 35 and its Last Eight Games Results Score was 0, together producing a score of .9429, which resulted in an at large selection "yes." (Underlining is intentional.)
Here are the "no" standards Mississippi State met:
No Standard 7: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is a standing of >=9.5. Mississippi State's Conference Standing was 11.5 (tied for 11-12), which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 49: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=236.0. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Conference Standing was 11.5, together producing a score of 254, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
Yes Standard 44: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=44.3475. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rating was .7093 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results score was -4.24, together producing a score of 44.7064, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 45: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1762. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rating was .7093 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank was 55, together producing a score of 2.2879, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 46: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Last Eight Games Results score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=66.5629. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rating was .7093 and its Last Eight Games Results score was 0, together producing a score of 73.7672, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 47: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=18192. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Top 50 Results Score was 1248, together producing a score of 71248, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 50: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Conference ARPI. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.5362. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Conference ARPI was .5879, together producing a score of 4.2921, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 51: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Conference Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=17.4. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Conference Rank was 2, together producing a score of 16.4, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 52: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Top 60 Head to Head Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.2000. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Top 60 Head to Head Results Score was -1.00, together producing a score of 3.00, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 53: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=1.0158. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Score was -4.24, together producing a score of 16.7647, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 55: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Last Eight Games Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1333. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Last Eight Games Results Score was 0, together producing a score of 32.0000, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 70: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Top 50 Results Rank and its Last Eight Games Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=.7500. Mississippi State's Top 50 Results Rank was 35 and its Last Eight Games Results Score was 0, together producing a score of .9429, which resulted in an at large selection "yes." (Underlining is intentional.)
Here are the "no" standards Mississippi State met:
No Standard 7: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is a standing of >=9.5. Mississippi State's Conference Standing was 11.5 (tied for 11-12), which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 49: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=236.0. Mississippi State's ANCRPI Rank was 1 and its Conference Standing was 11.5, together producing a score of 254, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 57: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Top 50 Results Score and its Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is <=8122. Mississippi State's Top 50 Results Score was 1248 and its Conference Standing was 11.5, together producing a score of 7944, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 72: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Conference Standing and its Conference Rank. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=31.2. Mississippi State's Conference Standing was 11.5 and its Conference Rank was 2, together producing a score of 34.20, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 75: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Conference Standing and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=116.050. Mississippi State's Conference Standing was 11.5 and its Top 60 Common Opponent Results Rank was 55, together producing a score of 122.85, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
A careful look at all of Mississippi State's "yes" standards shows that all but one included either its ARPI or its ANCRPI. On the other side, every one of its "no" standards included its Conference Standing. The Committee had to decide: Which matters more, a team's ARPI and ANCRPI ratings or where it finishes in its Conference Standings? Mississippi State was in the #2 rated conference. At least as applied to a team from a conference with that rating, the Committee decided that ARPI and ANCRPI ratings matter more than a poor finish in the Conference Standings. Thus it gave Mississippi State an at large selection.
It is worth noting, however, that as the underlined paragraph shows, Mississippi State met one "yes" at large standard that did not rely on either its ARPI or its ANCRPI. That standard relied on its Top 50 Results Rank and its Last Eight Games Results Score: it had decent Top 50 Results, ranked #35, and no poor results. Twelve of the top 45 ARPI teams were Automatic Qualifiers, so a rank of anything better than #45 (33 + 12) put a team within the group of the top 33 potential at large selections. With that in mind, then even disregarding Mississippi State's ARPI and ANCRPI, it appears to have been a legitimate at large selection candidate.
I also looked manually at Mississippi State's last 8 games, in which they went 1 win, 5 losses, 2 ties. Their win was v #68. Their losses were v an average of #21.2. Their ties were v an average of #41.5. Notwithstanding their w/l/t record, these make them a legitimate at large selection candidate
This means that at least for teams in the #1 or #2 conference, if the conference has 14 teams, a team finishing as far down in the Conference Standings as 11.5 (tied for 11-12) is a potential at large selection.
#20 North Carolina State. Met 32 "yes" standards and 4 "no" standards.
Here are the "yes" standards NC State met:
Yes Standard 1: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's ARPI Rating. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is a rating of >=.5989. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 2: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's ARPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is a rank <=30. NC State's ARPI Rank was 20, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 3: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is a rating >=.6747. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 4: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is a rank <=9. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 5: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is a score >=15890. NC State's Top 50 Results Score was 18927, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 6: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is a rank <=12. NC State's Top 50 Results Rank was 12, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 14: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its ARPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.3848. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166 and its ARPI Rank was 20, together producing a score of 3.5032, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 15: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=1.7191. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166 and its ANCRPI Rating was .7091, together producing a score of 1.8190, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 16: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.4543. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166 and its ANCRPI Rank was 2, together producing a score of 4.0148, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 17: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=245535. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166 and its Top 50 Results Score was 261265.5, together producing a score of 4.0148, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 18: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.3704. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 12, together producing a score of 3.5365, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 24: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.3867. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank was 56, together producing a score of 3.4710, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 26: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1787. NC State's ARPI Rank was 20 and its ANCRPI Rating was .7091, together producing a score of 2.3191, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 27: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=128.6. NC State's ARPI Rank was 20 and its ANCRPI Rank was 2, together producing a score of 74.0, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 28: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=17427.7. NC State's ARPI Rank was 20 and its Top 50 Results Score was 18927, together producing a score of 22427.0, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 29: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=59.0. NC State's ARPI Rank was 20 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 12, together producing a score of 32.0, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 32: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Conference Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=43.1. NC State's ARPI Rank was 20 and its Conference Rank was 3, together producing a score of 26.3, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 37: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its ANCRPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.2597. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091 and its ANCRPI Rank was 2, together producing a score of 2.7691, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 38: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=155126. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091 and its Top 50 Results Score was 18927, together producing a score of 177765, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 39: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1814. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 12, together producing a score of 2.3525, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 41: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Conference ARPI. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=1.7552. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091 and its Conference ARPI was .5858, together producing a score of 1.7636, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 45: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1762. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091 and its Top 60 Common Opponent Results Rank was 56, together producing a score of 2.2870, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 46: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Last Eight Games Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=66.5629. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091 and its Last Eight Games Results Score was -5, together producing a score of 68.7464, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 47: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=18192. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2 and its Top 50 Results Score was 18927, together producing a score of 53927, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 48: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=83.2. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 12, together producing a score of 45.2, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 50: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Conference ARPI. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.5362. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2 and its Conference ARPI was .5858, together producing a score of 3.7806, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 53: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=1.0158. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Score was -5.11, together producing a score of 5.3947, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 55: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Last Eight Games Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1333. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2 and its Last Eight Games Results Score was -5, together producing a score of 11.0000, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 56: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Top 50 Results Score and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=21275. NC State's Top 50 Results Score was 18928 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 12, together producing a score of 24760, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 58: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Top 50 Results Score and its Conference ARPI. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=244441. NC State's Top 50 Results Score was 18928 and its Conference ARPI was .5858, together producing a score of 249154, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 62: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Top 50 Results Score and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=18938. NC State's Top 50 Results Score was 18928 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank was 56, together producing a score of 20177, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 63: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Top 50 Results Score and its Last Eight Games Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=7084. NC State's Top 50 Results Score was 18928 and its Last Eight Games Results Score was -5, together producing a score of 7927, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Here are the "no" standards NC State met:
No Standard 7: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is a standing of >=9.5. NC State's Conference Standing was 11, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 49: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ANCRPI Rank and its Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=77.5. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2 and its Conference Standing was 11, together producing a score of 244.0, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 72: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Conference Standing and its Conference Rank. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=12.0. NC State's Conference Standing was 11 and its Conference Rank was 3, together producing a score of 33.8, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 75: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Conference Standing and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=31.650. NC State's Conference Standing was 11 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank was 56, together producing a score of 120.90, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
Yes Standard 14: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its ARPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.3848. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166 and its ARPI Rank was 20, together producing a score of 3.5032, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 15: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=1.7191. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166 and its ANCRPI Rating was .7091, together producing a score of 1.8190, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 16: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.4543. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166 and its ANCRPI Rank was 2, together producing a score of 4.0148, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 17: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=245535. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166 and its Top 50 Results Score was 261265.5, together producing a score of 4.0148, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 18: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.3704. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 12, together producing a score of 3.5365, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 24: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.3867. NC State's ARPI Rating was .6166 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank was 56, together producing a score of 3.4710, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 26: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1787. NC State's ARPI Rank was 20 and its ANCRPI Rating was .7091, together producing a score of 2.3191, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 27: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=128.6. NC State's ARPI Rank was 20 and its ANCRPI Rank was 2, together producing a score of 74.0, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 28: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=17427.7. NC State's ARPI Rank was 20 and its Top 50 Results Score was 18927, together producing a score of 22427.0, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 29: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=59.0. NC State's ARPI Rank was 20 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 12, together producing a score of 32.0, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 32: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Conference Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=43.1. NC State's ARPI Rank was 20 and its Conference Rank was 3, together producing a score of 26.3, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 37: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its ANCRPI Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.2597. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091 and its ANCRPI Rank was 2, together producing a score of 2.7691, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 38: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=155126. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091 and its Top 50 Results Score was 18927, together producing a score of 177765, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 39: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1814. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 12, together producing a score of 2.3525, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 41: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Conference ARPI. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=1.7552. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091 and its Conference ARPI was .5858, together producing a score of 1.7636, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 45: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1762. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091 and its Top 60 Common Opponent Results Rank was 56, together producing a score of 2.2870, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 46: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rating and its Last Eight Games Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=66.5629. NC State's ANCRPI Rating was .7091 and its Last Eight Games Results Score was -5, together producing a score of 68.7464, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 47: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=18192. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2 and its Top 50 Results Score was 18927, together producing a score of 53927, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 48: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=83.2. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 12, together producing a score of 45.2, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 50: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Conference ARPI. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.5362. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2 and its Conference ARPI was .5858, together producing a score of 3.7806, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 53: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=1.0158. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Score was -5.11, together producing a score of 5.3947, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 55: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Last Eight Games Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=2.1333. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2 and its Last Eight Games Results Score was -5, together producing a score of 11.0000, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 56: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Top 50 Results Score and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=21275. NC State's Top 50 Results Score was 18928 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 12, together producing a score of 24760, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 58: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Top 50 Results Score and its Conference ARPI. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=244441. NC State's Top 50 Results Score was 18928 and its Conference ARPI was .5858, together producing a score of 249154, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 62: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Top 50 Results Score and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=18938. NC State's Top 50 Results Score was 18928 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank was 56, together producing a score of 20177, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 63: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Top 50 Results Score and its Last Eight Games Results Score. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=7084. NC State's Top 50 Results Score was 18928 and its Last Eight Games Results Score was -5, together producing a score of 7927, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Here are the "no" standards NC State met:
No Standard 7: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is a standing of >=9.5. NC State's Conference Standing was 11, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 49: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ANCRPI Rank and its Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=77.5. NC State's ANCRPI Rank was 2 and its Conference Standing was 11, together producing a score of 244.0, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 72: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Conference Standing and its Conference Rank. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=12.0. NC State's Conference Standing was 11 and its Conference Rank was 3, together producing a score of 33.8, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 75: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Conference Standing and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=31.650. NC State's Conference Standing was 11 and its Top 60 Common Opponents Results Rank was 56, together producing a score of 120.90, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
A careful look at all of NC State's "yes" standards shows that although a lot of them included either its ARPI or its ANCRPI, others relied on its Top 50 Results. On the other side, every one of its "no" standards included its Conference Standing of 11. The Committee had to decide: How important is a team's Conference Standing? NC State was in the #3 rated conference. At least as applied to a team from a conference with that rating, the Committee decided that finishing #11 does not disqualify a team from getting an at large selection.
I also looked manually at NC State's last 8 games, in which they went 2 wins, 4 losses, 2 ties. Their wins were v teams with an average rank of 180.5. Their losses were v an average of #40.75. Their ties were v an average of #6.5. Notwithstanding their w/l/t record, these make them a legitimate at large selection candidate
This means that at least for teams in the #1, #2, or #3 conference, if the conference has 14 teams, a team finishing as far down in the Conference Standings as #11 is a potential at large selection.
With the Committee now having 12 seeded teams as at large selections, another 12 teams as clear at large selections, and Mississippi State and NC State as at large selections, that left it with 7 more at large slots to fill.
The Committee had one more team that presented it with a profile it hasn't seen over the last ll years. #37 Wake Forest met 2 "yes" at large standards and 2 "no" standards. The Committee gave it an at large selection.
#37 Wake Forest: Met 2 "yes" standards and 2 "no" standards.
Here are the "yes" standards Wake Forest met:
Yes Standard 18: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.3704. Wake Forest's ARPI Rating was .5996 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 31, together producing a score of 3.3730, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
With the Committee now having 12 seeded teams as at large selections, another 12 teams as clear at large selections, and Mississippi State and NC State as at large selections, that left it with 7 more at large slots to fill.
The Committee had one more team that presented it with a profile it hasn't seen over the last ll years. #37 Wake Forest met 2 "yes" at large standards and 2 "no" standards. The Committee gave it an at large selection.
#37 Wake Forest: Met 2 "yes" standards and 2 "no" standards.
Here are the "yes" standards Wake Forest met:
Yes Standard 18: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is >=3.3704. Wake Forest's ARPI Rating was .5996 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 31, together producing a score of 3.3730, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Yes Standard 32: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rank and its Conference Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=43.1. Wake Forest's ARPI Rank was 31 and its Conference Rank was 3, together producing a score of 37.3, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Here are the "no" standards Wake Forest met:
No Standard 7: This is a stand-alone factor standard, a team's Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is a standing of >=9.5. Wake Forest's Conference Standing was 9.5 (tied for 9-10), which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 49: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=77.5. Wake Forest's ANCRPI Rank was 27 and its Conference Standing was 9.5, together producing a score of 236.0, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
With the Committee giving Wake Forest an at large selection, it clearly decided that a team finishing tied for 9th-10th in the #3 conference, a 14 team conference, was not sufficient to disqualify the team from getting an at large selection. With NC State, the Committee extended this to a team in the #11 position in the #3 conference, a 14 team conference.
After adding Wake Forest to its at large selections, the Committee was at 27 teams, with 6 more to get at large selections. Based on past history, the apparent candidates for these 6 slots were:
#36 Wisconsin: 0-0
#38 Butler: 1-1
#39 Mississippi: 0-0
#40 Ohio State: 0-0
#43 Virginia Tech: 0-0
#45 Arizona State: 0-0
$48 Pepperdine: 0-0
#49 Colorado: 0-0
#50 Illinois: 0-0
#52 Louisville: 0-0
Of these, the Committee chose 5:
#36 Wisconsin: 0-0
#39 Mississippi: 0-0
#40 Ohio State: 0-0
#43 Virginia Tech: 0-0
#52 Louisville: 0-0
Since these 5 came from a group of candidates all of which met the same number of "yes" and "no" standards, the Committee's selecting them was consistent with its past decisions.
It is worth looking at 1-1 Butler, however, to see if it tells anything about the Committee's thinking:
#38 Butler: Met 1 "yes" standard and 1 "no" standard.
Here is the "yes" standard Butler met:
Yes Standard 72: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Conference Standing and its Conference Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=12.0. Butler's Conference Standing was 2 and its Conference Rank was 6, together producing a score of 11.60, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Here is the "no" standard Butler met:
No Standard 48: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ANCRPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=259.60. Butler's ANCRPI Rank was 54 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 57.5 (no good results against teams ranked #50 or better), together producing a score of 261.0, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
In Butler's case, the Committee essentially decided that its lack of good results and its relatively poor non-conference results outweighed its being the #2 team in the #6 conference.
With the decisions I've covered so far, the Committee had filled 32 of the 33 available at large positions. For the last at large position, it selected Northwestern
#47 Northwestern: Met no "yes" standards and 2 "no" standards.
Here are the "no" standards Northwestern met:
No Standard 19: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is <=3.0550. Northwestern's ARPI Rating was .5767 and its Conference Standing was 9, together producing a score of 3.0520, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 49: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Adjusted Non-Conference RPI Rank and its Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=77.5. Wake Forest's ANCRPI Rank was 27 and its Conference Standing was 9.5, together producing a score of 236.0, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
With the Committee giving Wake Forest an at large selection, it clearly decided that a team finishing tied for 9th-10th in the #3 conference, a 14 team conference, was not sufficient to disqualify the team from getting an at large selection. With NC State, the Committee extended this to a team in the #11 position in the #3 conference, a 14 team conference.
After adding Wake Forest to its at large selections, the Committee was at 27 teams, with 6 more to get at large selections. Based on past history, the apparent candidates for these 6 slots were:
#36 Wisconsin: 0-0
#38 Butler: 1-1
#39 Mississippi: 0-0
#40 Ohio State: 0-0
#43 Virginia Tech: 0-0
#45 Arizona State: 0-0
$48 Pepperdine: 0-0
#49 Colorado: 0-0
#50 Illinois: 0-0
#52 Louisville: 0-0
Of these, the Committee chose 5:
#36 Wisconsin: 0-0
#39 Mississippi: 0-0
#40 Ohio State: 0-0
#43 Virginia Tech: 0-0
#52 Louisville: 0-0
Since these 5 came from a group of candidates all of which met the same number of "yes" and "no" standards, the Committee's selecting them was consistent with its past decisions.
It is worth looking at 1-1 Butler, however, to see if it tells anything about the Committee's thinking:
#38 Butler: Met 1 "yes" standard and 1 "no" standard.
Here is the "yes" standard Butler met:
Yes Standard 72: This is a paired factor standard using a team's Conference Standing and its Conference Rank. The standard for a "yes" at large selection is <=12.0. Butler's Conference Standing was 2 and its Conference Rank was 6, together producing a score of 11.60, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
Here is the "no" standard Butler met:
No Standard 48: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ANCRPI Rank and its Top 50 Results Rank. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=259.60. Butler's ANCRPI Rank was 54 and its Top 50 Results Rank was 57.5 (no good results against teams ranked #50 or better), together producing a score of 261.0, which resulted in an at large selection "yes."
In Butler's case, the Committee essentially decided that its lack of good results and its relatively poor non-conference results outweighed its being the #2 team in the #6 conference.
With the decisions I've covered so far, the Committee had filled 32 of the 33 available at large positions. For the last at large position, it selected Northwestern
#47 Northwestern: Met no "yes" standards and 2 "no" standards.
Here are the "no" standards Northwestern met:
No Standard 19: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ARPI Rating and its Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is <=3.0550. Northwestern's ARPI Rating was .5767 and its Conference Standing was 9, together producing a score of 3.0520, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
No Standard 49: This is a paired factor standard using a team's ANCRPI Rank and its Conference Standing. The standard for a "no" at large selection is >=236.0. Northwestern's ANCRPI Rank was 38 and its Conference Standing was 9, together producing a score of 236.0, which resulted in an at large selection "no."
As the numbers show, Northwestern just missed coming in with a 0-0 for at large standards. Nevertheless, it's an important case, as it shows that the #9 team in the #5 conference can get an at large selection, as compared to the #2 team (Butler) in the #6 conference that didn't.
My conclusion is that the Committee's at large selections suggest that the Committee made a distinction among the conferences based on their average ARPI rankings. For the top 5 conferences -- the so called "power conferences" -- it appears not to have mattered to the Committee where the conferences' teams fell within their individual conferences' standings. They simply weren't going to be penalized for their Conference Standings positions. On the other hand, for teams not in the top 5 conferences, where they finished in their conference standings was quite important.
As the numbers show, Northwestern just missed coming in with a 0-0 for at large standards. Nevertheless, it's an important case, as it shows that the #9 team in the #5 conference can get an at large selection, as compared to the #2 team (Butler) in the #6 conference that didn't.
My conclusion is that the Committee's at large selections suggest that the Committee made a distinction among the conferences based on their average ARPI rankings. For the top 5 conferences -- the so called "power conferences" -- it appears not to have mattered to the Committee where the conferences' teams fell within their individual conferences' standings. They simply weren't going to be penalized for their Conference Standings positions. On the other hand, for teams not in the top 5 conferences, where they finished in their conference standings was quite important.
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