Sunday, November 4, 2018

2018 FINAL SIMULATED NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET 11.4.2018

 Below is the final simulated NCAA Tournament bracket, based on the actual results of all the season's games.  At the bottom of the table are some comments.

Here is the key for the left-hand, NCAA Seed or Selection, column:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded Automatic Qualifier
6 = at large selection
6.5 = in pool of essentially equal teams from which remaining at large spots must be filled, but not getting a selection
7 = Top 60 team not getting an at large selection
8 = Top 60 team not eligible for at large selection due to record below 0.500

NCAA Seed or Selection Automatic Qualifier ARPI Rank for Formation Team for Formation
1 AQ 1 Stanford
1 AQ 2 FloridaState
1 0 3 NorthCarolinaU
1 0 5 Baylor
2 AQ 4 Georgetown
2 AQ 6 WestVirginiaU
2 0 8 SouthernCalifornia
2 0 13 TexasU
3 0 7 UCLA
3 0 9 TennesseeU
3 0 11 Duke
3 0 12 SantaClara
4 0 10 TexasA&M
4 0 15 VirginiaU
4 0 18 SouthCarolinaU
4 0 26 ArkansasU
5 AQ 14 Memphis
5 0 24 Princeton
5 AQ 27 LSU
5 AQ 33 NorthTexas
5 AQ 37 LongBeachState
5 AQ 41 StLouis
5 AQ 42 BYU
5 AQ 44 MinnesotaU
5 AQ 53 Monmouth
5 AQ 59 Radford
5 AQ 63 Hofstra
5 AQ 64 MurrayState
5 AQ 67 AbileneChristian
5 AQ 73 UNCGreensboro
5 AQ 75 BowlingGreen
5 AQ 76 Lipscomb
5 AQ 85 Denver
5 AQ 89 Milwaukee
5 AQ 90 BostonU
5 AQ 96 Albany
5 AQ 98 CentralConnecticut
5 AQ 114 LoyolaChicago
5 AQ 117 UALR
5 AQ 128 SanJoseState
5 AQ 152 Seattle
5 AQ 166 MontanaU
5 AQ 237 Howard
6 0 16 SouthFlorida
6 0 17 MississippiState
6 0 19 TCU
6 0 20 NCState
6 0 21 Vanderbilt
6 0 22 PennState
6 0 23 KansasU
6 0 25 BostonCollege
6 0 28 Auburn
6 0 29 ArizonaU
6 0 30 Rutgers
6 0 31 WakeForest
6 0 32 WashingtonState
6 0 34 TexasTech
6 0 39 MississippiU
6 0 43 VirginiaTech
6 0 46 Clemson
6 0 48 Pepperdine
6 0 49 ColoradoU
6 0 50 IllinoisU
6 0 52 Louisville
6.5 0 36 WisconsinU
6.5 0 38 Butler
6.5 0 40 OhioState
6.5 0 45 ArizonaState
7 0 35 GeorgeMason
7 0 47 NorthwesternU
7 0 51 Providence
7 0 54 OklahomaState
7 0 56 VCU
7 0 57 OregonU
7 0 58 NebraskaU
7 0 60 Samford
8 0 55 FloridaU

NOTES:

Other potential seeds:

#1  Southern California, Georgetown

#2  UCLA, Duke

#3  Texas A&M, Virginia, South Carolina

#4  South Florida, Vanderbilt, Kansas, TCU,  Boston College, Penn State, Memphis

Regarding the seeds, a lot of them are not clear based on the Committee's historic patterns of seed decisions.  I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a bit of variation in seed placement from what I have above.

At large selections:

Based on the Committee's historic patterns, there was an unusually large group of 11 roughly equal teams competing for the last 7 at large positions.  From that group of 11, I used their Results against Top 50 teams, using my scoring system for that factor, as the decider.  I used that factor, as my observation of the Committee over time is that's the factor they seem to look to when resolving difficult decisions.  Here are those teams and how they fared based on that factor:

"Yes" at large selections (order in which they came in on the factor, Team, ARPI rank, Top 50 Results score, Top 50 Results rank):

1.  Virginia Tech, #43, 11,136, #21
2.  Illinois, #50, 2,610, #29
3.  Wake Forest, #31, 2,318, #31
4.  Mississippi, #39, 1,746, #32
5.  Pepperdine, #48, 1,732, #33
6.  Louisville, #51, 252, #42
7.  Colorado, #49, 64, #45

"No" at large selections

8.  Ohio State, #40, 34, #49
9.  Wisconsin, #36, 27, #50
10.  Arizona State, #45, 25, #51
11.  Butler, #38, 0, #57.5

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