2018 SIMULATED NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET 11.3.2018

Below is an updated simulated NCAA Tournament bracket based on the actual results of games played through Friday, November 2 and simulated results of games to be played today and tomorrow (Saturday and Sunday, November 3 and 4).  The simulated results are based on teams' ARPI ratings for games through last Sunday, October 28, as adjusted for home field advantage.

Here are some items that may be worth paying attention to:

1.  For #1 seeds, the simulation places Southern California a little ahead of UCLA for the fourth #1 seed, so I have indicated Southern California as a #1.  UCLA, however, just beat Southern California head-to-head, so there's a reasonable likelihood the Committee will prefer UCLA over Southern California if it comes down to them for the last #1 seed.

2.  The simulation has Princeton beating Penn in their game today.  This would have Princeton and Penn tied on points for the Ivy League title.  Assuming head-to-head results is the tiebreaker, it would make Princeton the Automatic Qualifier.  Thus the simulation has Princeton as the Ivy League's AQ.

3.  Teams competing for the last of the at large selections will be wanting to watch Princeton, St. Louis, and Long Beach State.  The simulation has all three of them as their conference Automatic Qualifiers.  If Penn ties or beats Princeton, then Princeton will not be an Automatic Qualifier; and if St. Louis or Long Beach State loses in their conference tournament championship games, then it will not be an Automatic Qualifier.  All three of these teams, however, look like they still might get at large selections ahead the other teams competing for the last at large selections.  That might not be the case, but it could be, we won't know until completion of all the games.

4.  The simulation shows seven teams with relative equivalent profiles competing for the last five at large positions.  If this is true after completion of all the games, the big question will be how the Committee will distinguish among them.  My best guess, based on experience with the numbers, is that the Committee will consider their results against well ranked teams as the deciding factor.  Using that factor and my point system for it, that suggests that the seven teams will fall out this way:

In  (ARPI Rank/Team/points for this factor/rank among Top 60 teams for this factor):

48 Illinois (2604/27)
51 Pepperdine (1732/31)
52 Louisville (252/42)
50 Colorado (52/44)
39 Ohio State (34/49)

Out:

37 Wisconsin (21/50)
44 Arizona State (13/53)

5.  There are no teams outside the Top 60 that look like potential at large selections if they were to make it into the Top 60.

Here is the key for the left-hand column:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded Automatic Qualifier
6 = at large selection
6.5 = in pool of essentially equal teams from which remaining at large spots must be filled
7 = Top 60 team not getting an at large selection
8 = Top 60+ team not eligible for at large selection due to record below 0.500

NCAA Seed or Selection	Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank for Formation	Team for Formation
1	AQ	1	Stanford
1	AQ	2	Baylor
1	AQ	3	NorthCarolinaU
1	0	7	SouthernCalifornia
2	AQ	4	Georgetown
2	0	5	FloridaState
2	0	6	UCLA
2	0	10	Duke
3	0	8	TennesseeU
3	0	9	TexasA&M
3	0	11	SantaClara
3	0	14	TexasU
4	0	12	WestVirginiaU
4	0	13	SouthFlorida
4	0	15	VirginiaU
4	AQ	19	PennState
5	AQ	16	Memphis
5	0	24	Princeton
5	AQ	26	ArkansasU
5	AQ	33	NorthTexas
5	AQ	38	LongBeachState
5	AQ	42	BYU
5	AQ	43	StLouis
5	AQ	45	TennesseeMartin
5	AQ	53	Monmouth
5	AQ	61	Radford
5	AQ	65	AbileneChristian
5	AQ	66	Hofstra
5	AQ	71	BallState
5	AQ	72	UNCGreensboro
5	AQ	76	Lipscomb
5	AQ	86	Denver
5	AQ	90	Milwaukee
5	AQ	92	BostonU
5	AQ	94	Albany
5	AQ	95	CentralConnecticut
5	AQ	100	UMKC
5	AQ	104	Furman
5	AQ	116	LoyolaChicago
5	AQ	123	TexasState
5	AQ	126	NorthernColorado
5	AQ	221	Grambling
6	0	17	MississippiState
6	0	18	SouthCarolinaU
6	0	20	TCU
6	0	21	NCState
6	0	22	Vanderbilt
6	0	23	KansasU
6	0	25	BostonCollege
6	0	27	LSU
6	0	28	Auburn
6	0	29	ArizonaU
6	0	30	Rutgers
6	0	31	WakeForest
6	0	32	TexasTech
6	0	35	WashingtonState
6	0	36	Butler
6	0	39	OhioState
6	0	41	VirginiaTech
6	0	46	Clemson
6	0	48	IllinoisU
6	0	50	ColoradoU
6	0	51	Pepperdine
6	0	52	Louisville
6.5	0	37	WisconsinU
6.5	0	44	ArizonaState
7	0	34	GeorgeMason
7	0	40	MississippiU
7	0	47	VCU
7	0	49	NorthwesternU
7	0	54	MinnesotaU
7	0	55	OklahomaState
7	0	56	Providence
7	0	58	NebraskaU
7	0	59	Samford
7	0	60	OregonU
8	0	57	FloridaU