As I mentioned in the post with the simulated end-of-season ratings, the RPI tends, on average, to underrate teams from stronger conferences and overrate ones from weaker conferences. The simulation nevertheless determines game results based on the assumption that teams will perform in accord with their ratings, as adjusted for home field advantage. What this means is that the simulation likewise tends to underrate teams from stronger conferences and overrate teams from weaker ones. And, this carries over into the simulated NCAA Tournament bracket, so that this pre-season simulated bracket no doubt has some teams in it from mid-major conferences that ultimately won't be there and has left out some teams from strong conferences that ultimately will be there. As I make weekly substitutions of actual game results for simulated results, this problem will decrease. By the end of the season, the problem will be gone altogether.
All White Kit's Chris Henderson likewise has produced an NCAA Tournament bracket, using a completely different approach that takes into account significant items of current information. His bracket and my simulated bracket agree on 40 of the 64 teams. Most of the teams on which they don't agree have to do with differences in who the automatic qualifiers are from mid-major and lesser conferences. Among the teams that are significant "players" in the competition to get a bracket position, he has the following teams in the bracket that my simulation doesn't: Memphis (as an Automatic Qualifier), Louisville, Baylor, Butler (as an AQ), Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Utah, Washington State, and Loyola Marymount. My simulation has the following teams that he doesn't: Connecticut, Kansas, Arizona, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Marquette, Harvard, North Texas, and Drexel. Of my simulation's teams, Harvard, North Texas, and Drexel are examples of ones that may occupy their current positions in the simulation due to the RPI's underrating/overrating problem.
Here are the 64 teams the simulation puts into the bracket, plus the teams from the simulation's top 60 that it doesn't put into the bracket. The NCAA Seed or Selection column's codes are:
1 = 1 seed
2 = 2 seed
3 = 3 seed
4 = 4 seed
5 = unseeded at large selection
6 = unseeded Automatic Qualifier
7 = top 60 team not getting an at large selection
8 = top 60 team not eligible due to record below 0.500
| NCAA Seed or Selection | Automatic Qualifier | ARPI Rank for Formation | Team for Formation |
| 1 | AQ | 2 | Stanford |
| 1 | 0 | 4 | UCLA |
| 1 | AQ | 3 | WestVirginiaU |
| 1 | AQ | 5 | SouthCarolinaU |
| 2 | 0 | 7 | FloridaU |
| 2 | AQ | 10 | NorthCarolinaU |
| 2 | AQ | 1 | Princeton |
| 2 | AQ | 6 | Rutgers |
| 3 | 0 | 11 | SouthernCalifornia |
| 3 | 0 | 13 | Duke |
| 3 | 0 | 18 | PennState |
| 3 | 0 | 9 | Auburn |
| 4 | AQ | 12 | Georgetown |
| 4 | 0 | 8 | FloridaState |
| 4 | 0 | 15 | TexasA&M |
| 4 | 0 | 16 | VirginiaU |
| 5 | 0 | 14 | NotreDame |
| 5 | 0 | 19 | CaliforniaU |
| 5 | 0 | 21 | ArkansasU |
| 5 | 0 | 20 | ArizonaU |
| 5 | 0 | 22 | TexasU |
| 5 | 0 | 38 | Clemson |
| 5 | 0 | 26 | SouthFlorida |
| 5 | 0 | 28 | Northeastern |
| 5 | 0 | 25 | ConnecticutU |
| 5 | 0 | 31 | KansasU |
| 5 | 0 | 36 | SantaClara |
| 5 | 0 | 41 | NorthwesternU |
| 5 | 0 | 32 | Cincinnati |
| 5 | 0 | 40 | MinnesotaU |
| 5 | 0 | 35 | Marquette |
| 5 | 0 | 37 | TCU |
| 5 | 0 | 42 | Harvard |
| 5 | 0 | 50 | NorthTexas |
| 5 | 0 | 44 | MississippiU |
| 5 | 0 | 47 | TennesseeU |
| 5 | 0 | 46 | Drexel |
| 5 | 0 | 48 | OhioState |
| 5 | 0 | 51 | TexasTech |
| 5 | 0 | 45 | NCState |
| 6 | AQ | 17 | UCF |
| 6 | AQ | 30 | MurrayState |
| 6 | AQ | 23 | Hofstra |
| 6 | AQ | 29 | SouthAlabama |
| 6 | AQ | 33 | Pepperdine |
| 6 | AQ | 24 | StJosephs |
| 6 | AQ | 27 | Rice |
| 6 | AQ | 34 | Bucknell |
| 6 | AQ | 39 | LongBeachState |
| 6 | AQ | 43 | KentState |
| 6 | AQ | 49 | FloridaGulfCoast |
| 6 | AQ | 56 | Monmouth |
| 6 | AQ | 58 | HighPoint |
| 6 | AQ | 54 | Samford |
| 6 | AQ | 53 | EasternWashington |
| 6 | AQ | 55 | UNLV |
| 6 | AQ | 75 | StephenFAustin |
| 6 | AQ | 76 | Drake |
| 6 | AQ | 89 | NewHampshireU |
| 6 | AQ | 99 | NorthernKentucky |
| 6 | AQ | 119 | FairleighDickinson |
| 6 | AQ | 127 | Seattle |
| 6 | AQ | 144 | AlabamaState |
| 6 | AQ | 160 | SouthDakotaState |
| 7 | 0 | 52 | WashingtonState |
| 7 | 0 | 59 | SanJoseState |
| 7 | 0 | 60 | Lipscomb |
| 8 | 0 | 57 | MississippiState |
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