This week’s reports use actual results of games played through Sunday, October 24. They are:
1. Actual current RPI ratings and ranks, showing which teams are in the current ranges for potential seeds and at large selections;
2. Simulated RPI ratings and ranks based on the actual results of games played and simulated results of games not yet played. The simulated results are based on opponents’ actual current RPI ratings. This report includes simulated NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds based on the simple system described here.
3. Simulated NCAA Tournament bracket based on the simulated RPI ratings and ranks, using the more complex system described here.
For the tables below, you may need to scroll to the right to see the entire table.
1. Actual current RPI ratings and ranks, showing which teams are in the current ranges for seeds and at large selections:
Here is a link to an Excel workbook that shows RPI and other information for all teams.
In addition, here is a table from the workbook. On the left, it shows which teams, based on past history, are in the current seed and at large selection ranges as of this stage of the season. It also includes the next group of teams, that appear to be close but out of the range for an at large selection. If you look at the At Large Bubble column, the highest ranked teams at the top of the list that are not color coded likely are assured of getting at large selections even if not conference automatic qualifiers, based on past history.
NOTE: If you closely compare my ratings to those the NCAA has published, you will notice some minor differences. This is because the October 24 game between Alcorn State and Grambling somehow dropped out of the NCAA data base. Hopefully, that game will find its way back in. In addition, the NCAA still has not adjusted the ranges for its two penalty adjustment tiers. This has no significant effect, but also is causing some rating and ranking differences from mine, at the poorer end of the RPI.
Also, if you compare my ratings and ranks to the AllWhiteKit ratings, you may notice some very small differences. The rating differences are due to our systems following different rounding conventions. (For these differences, AllWhiteKit always will have a team rated 0.0001 higher than my rating.) The ranking differences are due to the fact that when the AllWhiteKit system has teams with equal ratings when rounded to four decimal places, it puts them in alphabetical order. My system puts teams in order based on calculations to 15 decimal places. Ordinarily, these differences are inconsequential.
2. Simulated RPI ratings and ranks based on the actual results of games played and simulated results of games not yet played:
The simulated results of games not yet played are based on opponents’ actual current RPI ratings, as adjusted for home field advantage. This report includes simple-system simulated NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds.
Here is a link to an Excel workbook that shows the information for all teams. (NOTE: Due to a programming error (by me), the originally linked workbook had the wrong information. The currently linked workbook has the right information.)
In addition, here is a table from the workbook that shows simulated simple-system NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds, plus the next teams in the RPI rankings down to #80 (some of which would not meet the NCAA Tournament 0.500 winning percentage requirement for at large selection). (NOTE: This is a corrected version of what I posted yesteray.)
3. Simulated NCAA Tournament bracket based on the simulated RPI ratings and ranks, using the more complex system:
Finally, below is a table that shows the simulated more-complex-system NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds. It is worth noting that since I started keeping data in 2007, no team ranked poorer than #57 (using the current RPI formula) has gotten an at large selection.
Of the at large teams, the last teams in are Washington State, Santa Clara, and South Carolina. The next teams in line are Colorado, Butler, and Michigan State, followed by Oregon State, Georgia, Indiana, and Clemson.
1 = #1 seed, 2 = #2 seed, 3 = #3 seed, 4 = #4 seed, 5 = unseeded automatic qualifier, and 6 = unseeded at large selection.
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