This week’s reports use actual results of games played through Sunday, October 17. They are:
1. Actual current RPI ratings and ranks, showing which teams are in the current ranges for potential seeds and at large selections;
2. Simulated RPI ratings and ranks based on the actual results of games played and simulated results of games not yet played. The simulated results are based on opponents’ actual current RPI ratings. This report includes simulated NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds based on the simple system described here.
3. Simulated NCAA Tournament bracket based on the simulated RPI ratings and ranks, using the more complex system described here.
For the tables below, you may need to scroll to the right to see the entire table.
1. Actual current RPI ratings and ranks, showing which teams are in the current ranges for seeds and at large selections:
Here is a link to an Excel workbook that shows RPI and other information for all teams.
In addition, here is a table from the workbook. On the left, it shows which teams, based on past history, are in the current seed and at large selection ranges as of this stage of the season. If you look at the At Large Bubble column, the highest ranked teams at the top of the list that are not color coded likely are assured of getting at large selections, based on past history.
NOTE: If you compare these ranks to those the NCAA has published, you will note that I have Duke and Arkansas ranked #2 and #3 respectively, whereas the NCAA has them in the reverse order. Those two teams have nearly identical ratings and the difference in their order is due only to the NCAA and I using different rounding conventions. This is an unusual occurence in this area of the ratings and I expect it will disappear in next week’s ratings and ranks.
In addition, if you get into comparing my ratings to the NCAA’s, you might notice that I have #70 Minnesota with an RPI rating of 0.5676 whereas the NCAA has them at 0.5670. The reason for this is that Minnesota has accrued an RPI penalty for a tie against Illinois-Chicago. There are two tiers of penalties, the higher penalties being for poor results against the bottom 40 teams and the lower penalties for results against the next-to-bottom 40. As new schools sponsor soccer each year, it is necessary to adjusted the penalty tiers in the RPI calculation system to match the total number of teams sponsoring soccer. I have done that, but this year the NCAA has not yet done it. As a result, the NCAA is treating Minnesota as having accrued a penalty as though its poor result was against a bottom 40 team whereas it actually accrued the result against a next-to-bottom 40 team. The NCAA has been aware for a couple of weeks that it needs to adjusted its penalty tiers and has said they will do it, but they have not done it yet. There are 15 other teams, farther down in the rankings, that this likewise affects. Ordinarily, it would not be a significant issue, but since Minnesota still is within at large selection range as of this stage of the season, it actually may become important that the NCAA make the needed correction.
2. Simulated RPI ratings and ranks based on the actual results of games played and simulated results of games not yet played:
The simulated results of games not yet played are based on opponents’ actual current RPI ratings, as adjusted for home field advantage. This report includes simple-system simulated NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds.
Here is a link to an Excel workbook that shows the information for all teams.
In addition, here is a table from the workbook that shows simulated simple-system NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds, plus the next ten teams:
3. Simulated NCAA Tournament bracket based on the simulated RPI ratings and ranks, using the more complex system:
Finally, below is a table that shows the simulated more-complex-system NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds, plus the next 9 teams. It is worth noting that since I started keeping data in 2007, no team ranked poorer than #57 (using the current RPI formula) has gotten an at large selection.
1 = #1 seed, 2 = #2 seed, 3 = #3 seed, 4 = #4 seed, 5 = unseeded automatic qualifier, and 6 = unseeded at large selection.
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