2021 RPI: 10.10.21 RPI RATINGS (ACTUAL CURRENT AND SIMULATED END OF SEASON), AND SIMULATED NCAA TOURNAMENT AT LARGE SELECTIONS AND SEEDS

This week’s reports use actual results of games played through Sunday, October 10.  They are:

1.  Actual current RPI ratings and ranks, showing which teams are in the current ranges for seeds and at large selections;

2.  Simulated RPI ratings and ranks based on the actual results of games played and simulated results of games not yet played.  The simulated results are based on opponents’ actual current RPI ratings.  This report includes simulated NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds based on the simple system described here.

3.  Simulated NCAA Tournament bracket based on the simulated RPI ratings and ranks, using the more complex system described here.

For the tables below, you may need to scroll to the right to see the entire table. 

1.  Actual current RPI ratings and ranks, showing which teams are in the current ranges for seeds and at large selections:

Here is a link to an Excel workbook that shows RPI and other information for all teams.

In addition, here is a table from the workbook.  On the left, it shows which teams, based on past history, are in the current seed and at large selection ranges as of this stage of the season.  If you look at the At Large Bubble column, the highest ranked teams at the top of the list that are not color coded likely are assured of getting at large selections, based on past history.

2.  Simulated RPI ratings and ranks based on the actual results of games played and simulated results of games not yet played:

The simulated results of games not yet played are based on opponents’ actual current RPI ratings, as adjusted for home field advantage.  This report includes simple-system simulated NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds.

Here is a link to an Excel workbook that shows the information for all teams.

In addition, here is a table from the workbook that shows simulated simple-system NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds, plus the next five teams.

3.  Simulated NCAA Tournament bracket based on the simulated RPI ratings and ranks, using the more complex system:

Finally, below is a table that shows the simulated more-complex-system NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds.  The next five teams in line for at large selections would be West Virginia, Old Dominion, South Florida, Butler, and Clemson.

It is worth noting that this sytem has Harvard ending up ranked #4 by the RPI but going unseeded.  If Harvard ends up ranked #4, it is unlikely to go unseeded.

1 = #1 seed, 2 = #2 seed, 3 = #3 seed, 4 = #4 seed, 5 = unseeded automatic qualifier, and 6 = unseeded at large selection.