2021 RPI: 9.6.21 SIMULATED RPI RATINGS AND NCAA TOURNAMENT AT LARGE SELECTIONS AND SEEDS

Below is a table showing (1) full season data for teams based on the actual results of games played through September 6 and simulated results of games not yet played and (2) simulated automatic qualifiers and at large selections for the NCAA Tournament, based on those data.  These cover the Top 100 teams in my simulated RPI Ranks.

In addition, here is a link that shows the same data for all teams: 2021 Simulated RPI Report 9.6.21.

The earlier post, 2021 Season: Background for Upcoming Reports, has a full explanation of the simulation process, its limitations, and how to use it to consider the prospects for a team.  If you are a coach using the information to analyze your team’s prospects or otherwise have a serious interest in following the simulations, I strongly recommend you review in advance the Background post.

For purposes of evaluating the reliability of what you are seeing:

In terms of consistency of actual game results with simulated game results, so far the simulated higher rated team, after adjustments for home field advantage, has won 66.3% of the time, tied 10.7%, and lost 23.0%.  Once the season is over and we have actual RPI ratings based on the actual game results, history says that the consistency of actual game results with actual RPI ratings, adjusted for home field, will be that the higher rated team won 72.7%, tied 10.7%, and lost 16.6%.

This reflects that the simulation overrates or underrates a fair number of teams.  On the other hand, if you look at significant groups of teams, as a whole they will perform about as the simulation indicates they will.  Thus if you look at the entire group of home teams plus the first team in the alphabet for neutral site games and if you use the simulation to predict entire group results based on the win-tie-loss likelihood in each game, the simulation says that for the games actually played so far, the entire group would win 478.8 games, tie 88.0, and lose 290.2.  In fact, the entire group has won 481, tied 92, and lost 284.

Here are the 9.6.21 Simulated RPI Top 100.  You will have to scroll right to see the entire table.