2021 RPI: 9.19.21 SIMULATED RPI RATINGS AND NCAA TOURNAMENT AT LARGE SELECTIONS AND SEEDS

Below is a table showing (1) full season data for teams based on the actual results of games played through Sunday, September 19 and simulated results of games not yet played and (2) simulated automatic qualifiers and at large selections for the NCAA Tournament, based on those data.  These cover the Top 100 teams in the simulation based on combined RPI Rank and Top 50 Results Rank.  Starting with this report, simulated results of games not yet played are based on teams’ current actual RPI ratings rather than on pre-season simulated ratings.

In addition, here is a link that shows the same data for all teams: 2021 Simulated RPI Report 9.19.21.

The earlier post, 2021 Season: Background for Upcoming Reports, has a full explanation of the simulation process, its limitations, and how to use it to consider the prospects for a team.  If you are a coach using the information to analyze your team’s prospects or otherwise have a serious interest in following the simulations, I strongly recommend you review in advance the Background post.

Although I now am using teams’ current actual RPI ratings to simulate the results of games not yet played, the simulated end-of-season results remain pretty primitive at this stage of the season, so bear that in mind.  As the season progresses, each week’s simulated end-of-season results will be closer to what the actual end-of-season results will be.

Also, I see a potential problem with how the RPI will work this year.  In a typical season, teams play 18.1% of their games out-of-region (regions being primarily geographic playing pools: middle, northeast, south, and west).  This is not a high enough percentage to allow the RPI to have high accuracy in rating teams from different regions in relation to each other, with the main result being that the RPI on average underrates teams from the west.  (In other words, teams from the west on average have out-of-region game results that are better than their RPI ratings say they should be.)  This year, the current rate of out-of-region games is only 15.0%.  This is likely to create an even bigger problem this year in terms of the RPI’s ability to rate teams from different regions properly in relation to each other.

Here are the 9.19.21 Simulated RPI Top 100.  You will have to scroll right to see the entire table.