This week, I am adding an additional report to the report I published in preceding weeks. Thus you will see here two reports:
Actual RPI Report with At Large Selection and Seed Ranges. This report includes
(1) the above link to an Excel workbook that has all teams ranked in RPI order, with detailed actual current RPI-related information on each team, based on games played through Sunday, September 26. It includes, to the left, color coding that shows the ranges within which teams historically, at this point in the season, are potential bubble teams for at large selections and #1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds. Teams ranked better than the at large bubble historically always have gotten at large selections (if not conference automatic qualifiers). Teams ranked poorer than the at large bubble never have gotten at large selections. The workbook also has two other pages, showing conference ranks and ranks of regional playing pools.
(2) below, a table drawn from the workbook showing the teams from RPI #1 through those in the current at large bubble.
Simulated RPI Report with Simulated NCAA Tournament Automatic Qualifiers, At Large Selections, and Seeds. This report includes:
(1) the above link to an Excel workbook that shows (a) full season data for teams based on the actual results of games played through Sunday, September 26 and simulated results of games not yet played and (2) simulated automatic qualifiers and at large selections for the NCAA Tournament, based on those data.
(2) below, a table drawn from the workbook showing the Top 100 teams in the simulation based on combined RPI Rank and Top 50 Results Rank. Simulated results of games not yet played are based on teams’ current actual RPI ratings.
The earlier post, 2021 Season: Background for Upcoming Reports, has a full explanation of the simulation process, its limitations, and how to use it to consider the prospects for a team. If you are a coach using the information to analyze your team’s prospects or otherwise have a serious interest in following the simulations, I strongly recommend you review in advance the Background post.
Both the actual RPI ratings and the simulated ratings remain primitive at this stage of the season, so bear that in mind. As the season progresses, each week’s current ratings and simulated end-of-season results will be closer to what the actual end-of-season results will be.
As an additional note this week, the NCAA staff has tweaked the RPI bonus and penalty formulas very slightly this year, in order to make them continue to be consistent with past Committee instructions. The tweaking is of no practical consequence. It also appears that the penalty tiers are slighly in error due to the NCAA not having adjusted them to reflect the addition of new teams to the field of schools with soccer. This too is of no practical consequence.
Here is the 9.26.21actual RPI table, with historic seed and at large selection ranges. You will have to scroll right to see the entire table.
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