"There were teams and leagues that were able to trick the RPI, either intentionally or unintentionally."
Mark Few, Gonzaga men's basketball coach, in the Spokane Spokesman-Review, August 22, 2018
In 2018, the NCAA stopped using the RPI for men's basketball, replacing it with a different system. This happened because Mark Few and other NCAA basketball coaches fought for the change. Will DI women's soccer coaches follow their lead and fight for a change? Of course, their situation is different as this is "just" women's soccer we are talking about, a change would be energy and time-consuming for NCAA staff, and they have many other jobs to do that they probably think are more important. But one thing is certain: There will not be change unless the coaches demand it.
This year, the RPI status of the Ivy League provides an excellent case in point for Mark Few's statement. For games through October 29, the Ivies are the #2 ranked conference according to the RPI and that is almost sure to be where they end up. According to my Balanced RPI, however, they are the #5 conference. And, according to Massey, they are #7. So, what gives?
Below are three tables, each with the same data but arranged differently. The tables cover the Ivies' non-conference games. In the tables, the blue highlights games the Ivy teams won. The green highlights ties. The peach highlights losses.
The first table is arranged by Ivy team, with the teams in their RPI rank order:
Using Brown as an example, the blue games are ones it won. In the next-to-right-hand columns you can see Brown's rank as of October 29, which was #5. In the right-hand column you can see the ranks of the opponents it beat. As you can see, its best non-conference win was against the #152 ranked team. The green games are ones it tied, both home games, against the teams ranked #13 and #62. The peach game is a loss, an away game against the team ranked #35.
If you go through each team, you can make your own judgment whether its non-conference results seem consistent with its RPI rank.
The second table has the games arranged not by team but instead by wins, then ties, then losses, with each group's games in order of the opponent RPI ranks:
In looking at this table, bear in mind that the top four Ivy teams' ranks are #5 (Brown), #12 (Princeton), #16 (Harvard), and #24 (Columbia).
If you look at the wins rows at the top of the table, you will see that the Ivies have only one win against a team in the Top 30, a Princeton win at home against #14. The Ivies' next best win is against #35 and they have a total of only 5 wins against teams in the Top 50.
If you look at the ties, the Ivies have only one tie against a team in the Top 30, a Brown tie at home against #13. The Ivies' next best tie is against #34 and they have a total of only 3 ties against teams in the Top 50. Brown has a tie at home against #62, Princeton has a tie away against #191, and Columbia has a tie away against #101.
If you look at the losses, Brown has an away loss to #35, Princeton has a home loss to #60, Harvard has away losses to #67 and #99, and Columbia has an away loss to #28.
In looking at the Ivies' poor ties and losses, it is important to remember that highly ranked teams do have occasional poor results. The question here, however, is whether the totality of good results and poor results is consistent with having teams ranked #5, #12, #16, and #24.
The final table has the games arranged by opponents' geographic regions, then wins, losses, and ties within the regions, and then by opponent RPI ranks.
The first thing the table shows is that the Ivies played very few games outside their geographic region. Thus their non-conference records mainly show where they fit within the North region.
The other thing the table shows may be revealing, although it is based on limited data. The West is the strongest region based on average RPIs. Against teams from the West, the Ivies' two wins are against teams ranked #186 and #230. Harvard has an away tie against #39, Brown has a home tie against #62, and Columbia has an away tie against #101. Columbia has an away loss to #28 and Harvard an away loss to #99. These result suggest that there is something amiss in how the RPI ranks the Ivies in relation to teams from the West.
The above close looks at the Ivies' good and poor results strongly suggest that they are significantly overrated: Neither their good results nor their poor results support their ranks. This raises the question of why this is happening. The answer is in Mark Few's statement at the top of this report: Leagues are able to trick the RPI, whether intentionally or unintentionally.
In this case, every one of the Ivies had a good to excellent non-conference record, achieved mostly against opponents from the relatively weak North region. They brought these records into conference play and because the RPI Strength of Schedule formula is based primarily on an opponent's winning record, each team bolstered every other team's RPI Strength of Schedule. They were able to do this even though the opponents against whom they achieved their non-conference winning records by and large were unimpressive. Simply put, the Ivies have tricked the RPI, whether intentionally or unintentionally.
Will the DI women's soccer coaches continue to put up with this situation? Time will tell.
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