Below are simulated end-of-season Adjusted RPI ranks using the actual results of games played through Sunday, September 25 and simulated results of games not yet played. The simulated results of games not yet played are based on the current actual ARPI ratings of the opposing teams as adjusted for home field advantage.
I have made two changes in the calculation rules starting this week:
1. I have determined that with the change this year to no overtimes, there has been a slight change in the value of home field. Previously, home field advantage was worth 0.0150 in relation to teams’ comparitive ARPI ratings. I think of this as the home team playing as though its rating were 0.0075 better and the away team as though its rating were 0.0075 poorer. With the change to no overtimes, home field advantage has increased slightly to 0.0156. (These values are based on a study of all games played since 2007 for the previous value and since 2010 for the new value.)
2. Previously, if the location-adjusted rating difference between opponents was 0.0133 or less, the simulated result for the game was a tie. This was because at that rating difference level, the chance of the better rated team winning was less than 50%, so that the better rated team was more likely to lose or tie than to win. Simulating the result as a tie is a compromise to address this problem. With the change to no overtimes, the difference at which the simulated result is a tie is 0.0266. (These values are based on a study of all games played since 2007 for the previous value and since 2010 for the new value. It is a coincidence that the new value is exactly twice the old value.)
Here are the simulated end-of-season ranks:
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