Starting this week, when I simulate the results of future games I will use current actual ARPIs as adjusted for home field advantage (rather than using pre-season assigned ARPIs as adjusted).
As each week passes, since more and more actual results will be part of the data, the simulated end-of-season ranks should come closer and closer to where they ultimately will end up.
In addition to other cautions about the simulations, there are three reservations I want to emphasize:
1. The value of home field I use is 0.0148 (in relation to RPI ratings), which comes from a statistical analysis of all game results since 2007. It is based, however, on games that included overtime games decided by golden goals. With the change to no overtimes, it is possible this value will change. I will be doing a study of this, but have not done it yet.
2. I designate as ties all games where the location-adjusted rating difference between opponents is 0.0133 or less. This likewise comes from a statistical analysis of all game results since 2007, including overtime games decided by golden goals. With the change to no overtimes, this value will change but I have not yet done a study to determine the new value.
3. For every game where the rating difference between opponents is greater than the tie threshold, I designate the game as a win by the better rated team. That is the only practical way to do it. In real life, however, the better rated team over a series of games will not win them all. As a result, teams at the high end of my ratings show better records than they are likely actually to have and teams at the low end show poorer records.
With all of that in mind, here are the simulated end-of-season ranks using the actual results of games played through September 18 and simulated results of games not yet played:
|
Team
for Bracket Formation |
ARPI
Rank |
|
AlabamaU |
1 |
|
UCLA |
2 |
|
Rutgers |
3 |
|
NotreDame |
4 |
|
VirginiaU |
5 |
|
NorthCarolinaU |
6 |
|
Harvard |
7 |
|
StLouis |
8 |
|
ArizonaState |
9 |
|
Duke |
10 |
|
Clemson |
11 |
|
SouthCarolinaU |
12 |
|
OhioState |
13 |
|
PortlandU |
14 |
|
Georgetown |
15 |
|
BYU |
16 |
|
ArkansasU |
17 |
|
MississippiU |
18 |
|
TCU |
19 |
|
NCState |
20 |
|
Xavier |
21 |
|
PennState |
22 |
|
WashingtonState |
23 |
|
LSU |
24 |
|
NorthwesternU |
25 |
|
SouthAlabama |
26 |
|
UtahValley |
27 |
|
Pepperdine |
28 |
|
Lamar |
29 |
|
GrandCanyon |
30 |
|
WisconsinU |
31 |
|
OklahomaState |
32 |
|
TexasA&M |
33 |
|
UCF |
34 |
|
VCU |
35 |
|
Buffalo |
36 |
|
CalStateFullerton |
37 |
|
Pittsburgh |
38 |
|
SouthDakotaState |
39 |
|
FloridaState |
40 |
|
WakeForest |
41 |
|
Brown |
42 |
|
Memphis |
43 |
|
UAB |
44 |
|
JamesMadison |
45 |
|
Drexel |
46 |
|
SMU |
47 |
|
UtahU |
48 |
|
Northeastern |
49 |
|
MississippiState |
50 |
|
Fairfield |
51 |
|
EasternKentucky |
52 |
|
GeorgiaU |
53 |
|
BoiseState |
54 |
|
WashingtonU |
55 |
|
MichiganState |
56 |
|
CaliforniaU |
57 |
|
ConnecticutU |
58 |
|
SanFrancisco |
59 |
|
Stanford |
60 |
|
IUPUI |
61 |
|
KansasU |
62 |
|
Quinnipiac |
63 |
|
Auburn |
64 |
|
Dayton |
65 |
|
Creighton |
66 |
|
FloridaAtlantic |
67 |
|
Campbell |
68 |
|
LoyolaChicago |
69 |
|
Milwaukee |
70 |
|
EastCarolina |
71 |
|
Chattanooga |
72 |
|
OregonU |
73 |
|
SanDiegoState |
74 |
|
TexasU |
75 |
|
LaSalle |
76 |
|
NorthwesternState |
77 |
|
Samford |
78 |
|
UMassLowell |
79 |
|
SouthernMississippi |
80 |
|
UNCGreensboro |
81 |
|
WrightState |
82 |
|
Towson |
83 |
|
Monmouth |
84 |
|
Princeton |
85 |
|
ArizonaU |
86 |
|
Radford |
87 |
|
Columbia |
88 |
|
CaliforniaBaptist |
89 |
|
Wofford |
90 |
|
Liberty |
91 |
|
MiamiFL |
92 |
|
SELouisiana |
93 |
|
Louisville |
94 |
|
William&Mary |
95 |
|
BowlingGreen |
96 |
|
TexasState |
97 |
|
TennesseeU |
98 |
|
OklahomaU |
99 |
|
MontanaU |
100 |
|
NorthAlabama |
101 |
|
SIUEdwardsville |
102 |
|
VirginiaTech |
103 |
|
KentuckyU |
104 |
|
NewMexicoState |
105 |
|
MissouriState |
106 |
|
MassachusettsU |
107 |
|
Purdue |
108 |
|
NebraskaU |
109 |
|
MaineU |
110 |
|
SouthernCalifornia |
111 |
|
SantaClara |
112 |
|
UtahState |
113 |
|
MountStMary |
114 |
|
TennesseeTech |
115 |
|
Dartmouth |
116 |
|
WestVirginiaU |
117 |
|
HawaiiU |
118 |
|
Denver |
119 |
|
Yale |
120 |
|
LoyolaMD |
121 |
|
Duquesne |
122 |
|
LoyolaMarymount |
123 |
|
WesternKentucky |
124 |
|
Lipscomb |
125 |
|
Davidson |
126 |
|
OhioU |
127 |
|
TexasTech |
128 |
|
Hartford |
129 |
|
Butler |
130 |
|
AppalachianState |
131 |
|
Drake |
132 |
|
GeorgiaState |
133 |
|
Tarleton |
134 |
|
MissouriU |
135 |
|
OregonState |
136 |
|
Gonzaga |
137 |
|
Oakland |
138 |
|
Army |
139 |
|
Elon |
140 |
|
Vanderbilt |
141 |
|
Hofstra |
142 |
|
KennesawState |
143 |
|
Marist |
144 |
|
ColoradoU |
145 |
|
Cincinnati |
146 |
|
NorthDakotaState |
147 |
|
AirForce |
148 |
|
Merrimack |
149 |
|
UNCWilmington |
150 |
|
MiamiOH |
151 |
|
Tulsa |
152 |
|
Seattle |
153 |
|
NorthTexas |
154 |
|
IllinoisU |
155 |
|
LongBeachState |
156 |
|
IndianaU |
157 |
|
NJIT |
158 |
|
Syracuse |
159 |
|
CentralConnecticut |
160 |
|
SetonHall |
161 |
|
Binghamton |
162 |
|
NorthernColorado |
163 |
|
StMarys |
164 |
|
Toledo |
165 |
|
NewMexicoU |
166 |
|
Niagara |
167 |
|
MichiganU |
168 |
|
ClevelandState |
169 |
|
TexasCommerce |
170 |
|
GreenBay |
171 |
|
MarylandU |
172 |
|
Mercer |
173 |
|
RhodeIslandU |
174 |
|
Grambling |
175 |
|
SouthernUtah |
176 |
|
RobertMorris |
177 |
|
ColoradoCollege |
178 |
|
IdahoU |
179 |
|
UCIrvine |
180 |
|
BostonCollege |
181 |
|
WesternIllinois |
182 |
|
LouisianaMonroe |
183 |
|
UCDavis |
184 |
|
StThomas |
185 |
|
Navy |
186 |
|
Marquette |
187 |
|
Belmont |
188 |
|
GeorgiaSouthern |
189 |
|
WesternCarolina |
190 |
|
OldDominion |
191 |
|
GeorgeMason |
192 |
|
Lafayette |
193 |
|
Rice |
194 |
|
Longwood |
195 |
|
SIUCarbondale |
196 |
|
Baylor |
197 |
|
Bucknell |
198 |
|
SanDiegoU |
199 |
|
UtahTech |
200 |
|
Houston |
201 |
|
FloridaGulfCoast |
202 |
|
UMKC |
203 |
|
Canisius |
204 |
|
NorthernIllinois |
205 |
|
EastTennesseeState |
206 |
|
SoutheastMissouriState |
207 |
|
CollegeofCharleston |
208 |
|
IPFW |
209 |
|
PennsylvaniaU |
210 |
|
CalStateNorthridge |
211 |
|
GeorgeWashington |
212 |
|
GardnerWebb |
213 |
|
KansasState |
214 |
|
EasternWashington |
215 |
|
StJohns |
216 |
|
UCRiverside |
217 |
|
Providence |
218 |
|
IowaState |
219 |
|
ColoradoState |
220 |
|
Bellarmine |
221 |
|
BostonU |
222 |
|
OralRoberts |
223 |
|
Evansville |
224 |
|
CentralArkansas |
225 |
|
Temple |
226 |
|
VermontU |
227 |
|
WesternMichigan |
228 |
|
UMBC |
229 |
|
Albany |
230 |
|
American |
231 |
|
JacksonvilleU |
232 |
|
TexasCorpusChristi |
233 |
|
HighPoint |
234 |
|
JacksonState |
235 |
|
FloridaU |
236 |
|
ArkansasState |
237 |
|
StFrancis |
238 |
|
SouthFlorida |
239 |
|
MinnesotaU |
240 |
|
Charlotte |
241 |
|
Detroit |
242 |
|
UNLV |
243 |
|
USCUpstate |
244 |
|
Troy |
245 |
|
IowaU |
246 |
|
TexasRGV |
247 |
|
McNeeseState |
248 |
|
TennesseeMartin |
249 |
|
KentState |
250 |
|
LouisianaTech |
251 |
|
NorthFlorida |
252 |
|
MurrayState |
253 |
|
UCSanDiego |
254 |
|
Iona |
255 |
|
SouthernIndiana |
256 |
|
IllinoisChicago |
257 |
|
WyomingU |
258 |
|
StephenFAustin |
259 |
|
BallState |
260 |
|
DePaul |
261 |
|
Bryant |
262 |
|
UTSA |
263 |
|
LouisianaLafayette |
264 |
|
CalPoly |
265 |
|
StBonaventure |
266 |
|
Furman |
267 |
|
FairleighDickinson |
268 |
|
Lehigh |
269 |
|
Cornell |
270 |
|
StonyBrook |
271 |
|
SacredHeart |
272 |
|
UALR |
273 |
|
AbileneChristian |
274 |
|
StFrancisBrooklyn |
275 |
|
UNCAsheville |
276 |
|
Morehead |
277 |
|
Pacific |
278 |
|
NewHampshireU |
279 |
|
IdahoState |
280 |
|
Fordham |
281 |
|
StJosephs |
282 |
|
Citadel |
283 |
|
Marshall |
284 |
|
CoastalCarolina |
285 |
|
NorthernKentucky |
286 |
|
SanJoseState |
287 |
|
AlcornState |
288 |
|
NichollsState |
289 |
|
MiddleTennessee |
290 |
|
FIU |
291 |
|
Akron |
292 |
|
Richmond |
293 |
|
Winthrop |
294 |
|
StPeters |
295 |
|
UTEP |
296 |
|
JacksonvilleState |
297 |
|
NorthDakotaU |
298 |
|
EasternIllinois |
299 |
|
AlabamaA&M |
300 |
|
Rider |
301 |
|
EasternMichigan |
302 |
|
CalStateBakersfield |
303 |
|
HoustonBaptist |
304 |
|
AustinPeay |
305 |
|
Stonehill |
306 |
|
SouthernU |
307 |
|
Hampton |
308 |
|
UNOmaha |
309 |
|
Manhattan |
310 |
|
HolyCross |
311 |
|
YoungstownState |
312 |
|
IllinoisState |
313 |
|
WeberState |
314 |
|
ArkansasPineBluff |
315 |
|
SamHoustonState |
316 |
|
ChicagoState |
317 |
|
IncarnateWord |
318 |
|
DelawareU |
319 |
|
UCSantaBarbara |
320 |
|
NorthernArizona |
321 |
|
NevadaU |
322 |
|
Valparaiso |
323 |
|
Stetson |
324 |
|
Siena |
325 |
|
FresnoState |
326 |
|
CharlestonSouthern |
327 |
|
CentralMichigan |
328 |
|
SacramentoState |
329 |
|
Presbyterian |
330 |
|
Lindenwood |
331 |
|
MississippiValley |
332 |
|
PortlandState |
333 |
|
Queens |
334 |
|
Wagner |
335 |
|
Villanova |
336 |
|
Colgate |
337 |
|
SouthDakotaU |
338 |
|
VMI |
339 |
|
Howard |
340 |
|
IndianaState |
341 |
|
UNI |
342 |
|
LongIsland |
343 |
|
TexasSouthern |
344 |
|
DelawareState |
345 |
|
PrairieViewA&M |
346 |
|
AlabamaState |
347 |
|
SouthCarolinaState |
348 |
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