2022 PRE-SEASON ASSIGNED RPI RANKS AND RESULTING SIMULATED END-OF-SEASON RPI RANKS

Before each season, I prepare an Excel workbook that, among other things, assigns pre-season RPI ratings and ranks for all teams based on their historic rank trends.  You can use this link to download the Team Histories and Simulated 2022 Ranks Data Only  workbook.  (One purpose of the workbook is to be a data source for coaches doing non-conference scheduling.)  Once downloaded, the workbook will open to its User Guide page where you can find an explanation of how I assign pre-season ratings and ranks and of what their limitations are.

Once I have all team schedules, I apply the assigned pre-season RPI ratings to each game to project a game result on the assumption the result will be consistent with the two opponent ratings as adjusted for home field advantage.  (Home field advantage is worth 0.0148 in RPI rating points.)  If the location-adjusted rating difference between the two opponents is 0.0133 or less, then the projected game result is a tie.  This is because at that rating difference level, each team has a statistical win likelihood of less than 50%, so it is better to project a tie than a win-loss.  (The higher rated team is more likely to lose or tie the game than win it.)

My system also is set up to populate the conference tournament brackets based on the projected results of the in-conference games, as well as to project each conference tournament game result as described above.

With projected results for the entire season, including conference tournaments, my system then calculates final RPI ratings and ranks for all teams.  One might think that the final ratings and ranks would be about the same as the assigned pre-season ratings and ranks given that all game results are consistent with the assigned pre-season ratings.  In some cases, that is what happens.  In many cases, however, there are significant differences.  This is due in part to how team schedules interact with the RPI formula -- and can give insight into how important it is to do non-conference scheduling with a view to how the RPI formula works, if your team has NCAA Tournament aspirations.  It also is due, however, to the RPI’s patterns of discriminating against (or in favor of) some conferences and geographic regions.

With that background, the following table shows team assigned pre-season RPI ranks followed by their resulting RPI ranks after going through the game results assigning process described above.  You might want to bear in mind that since 2007 no team with an end-of-season RPI rank of 58 or poorer has received an NCAA Tournament at large selection, so it is likely that the end-of-season pool of candidates for an at large selection is, at best, the Top 60.

Team for Simulation Rating Purposes	Assigned Pre Season ARPI Rank	Resulting Final Simulated RPI Rank
Duke	1	1
FloridaState	2	2
ArkansasU	3	4
NorthCarolinaU	4	5
VirginiaU	5	7
Stanford	6	10
Pepperdine	7	17
BYU	8	24
TennesseeU	9	12
SouthernCalifornia	10	3
MichiganU	11	8
Rutgers	12	11
UCLA	13	22
TCU	14	14
NotreDame	15	19
Brown	16	6
Clemson	17	13
WashingtonState	18	21
Georgetown	19	15
SantaClara	20	33
PennState	21	16
Purdue	22	20
VirginiaTech	23	27
Xavier	24	9
Gonzaga	25	54
Princeton	26	18
LSU	27	26
SouthCarolinaU	28	23
ColoradoU	29	45
NCState	30	25
TexasA&M	31	38
OregonU	32	34
TexasU	33	49
Auburn	34	28
WakeForest	35	40
Pittsburgh	36	31
Hofstra	37	29
CaliforniaU	38	48
NebraskaU	39	50
MississippiU	40	30
WisconsinU	41	51
Butler	42	39
Milwaukee	43	84
ArizonaState	44	41
WestVirginiaU	45	78
IndianaU	46	100
Louisville	47	69
WashingtonU	48	60
Vanderbilt	49	36
OhioState	50	55
IowaU	51	117
OklahomaState	52	52
Memphis	53	61
MichiganState	54	58
NorthwesternU	55	68
Harvard	56	32
OregonState	57	96
GeorgiaU	58	73
SouthFlorida	59	93
UtahU	60	87
AlabamaU	61	106
MinnesotaU	62	107
Providence	63	37
SMU	64	46
UCF	65	53
TexasTech	66	82
StJohns	67	57
MississippiState	68	115
LoyolaChicago	69	43
UNCWilmington	70	44
StMarys	71	101
SanFrancisco	72	104
GrandCanyon	73	35
NewMexicoU	74	70
BostonCollege	75	98
SouthernMississippi	76	80
Baylor	77	177
Houston	78	95
Samford	79	42
BowlingGreen	80	47
FloridaU	81	171
MissouriU	82	168
KansasU	83	167
Columbia	84	76
Denver	85	99
SouthDakotaState	86	63
CalPoly	87	122
IllinoisU	88	182
PortlandU	89	128
OldDominion	90	66
ArizonaU	91	161
LongBeachState	92	94
UCIrvine	93	140
Pacific	94	198
OklahomaU	95	136
Cincinnati	96	166
EastCarolina	97	116
VCU	98	56
JamesMadison	99	74
StLouis	100	62
CalStateFullerton	101	143
KentuckyU	102	154
UtahValley	103	102
NorthTexas	104	72
UtahState	105	90
UCSantaBarbara	106	131
SouthAlabama	107	67
Seattle	108	103
PennsylvaniaU	109	114
KentState	110	64
MontanaU	111	137
DePaul	112	141
Marquette	113	149
FresnoState	114	156
Rice	115	65
KansasState	116	199
IowaState	117	217
MiamiFL	118	180
ConnecticutU	119	146
MarylandU	120	192
BoiseState	121	173
Creighton	122	145
SanDiegoU	123	203
Dayton	124	81
SouthDakotaU	125	113
Lipscomb	126	89
Buffalo	127	97
SIUEdwardsville	128	112
UTSA	129	126
SanDiegoState	130	174
Campbell	131	75
UNOmaha	132	201
NorthernColorado	133	159
Northeastern	134	88
Liberty	135	59
UAB	136	139
WesternKentucky	137	108
Monmouth	138	71
CaliforniaBaptist	139	125
Toledo	140	127
FloridaAtlantic	141	176
CentralMichigan	142	133
UCDavis	143	248
Tulsa	144	205
ArkansasState	145	77
UNLV	146	221
Charlotte	147	158
WeberState	148	170
Dartmouth	149	130
Elon	150	109
Drake	151	121
MassachusettsU	152	105
ColoradoState	153	212
OhioU	154	129
Navy	155	91
BallState	156	186
Quinnipiac	157	85
TennesseeTech	158	92
NorthFlorida	159	124
ColoradoCollege	160	227
BostonU	161	120
AirForce	162	223
Towson	163	134
Furman	164	118
Oakland	165	183
Bucknell	166	178
MiddleTennessee	167	196
Villanova	168	209
SanJoseState	169	264
UCSanDiego	170	226
Temple	171	244
NewMexicoState	172	181
William&Mary	173	153
IdahoU	174	252
HighPoint	175	142
LouisianaTech	176	163
MiamiOH	177	179
Niagara	178	110
FloridaGulfCoast	179	132
GeorgiaSouthern	180	164
WyomingU	181	287
CentralArkansas	182	135
NorthwesternState	183	79
Syracuse	184	185
UCRiverside	185	256
GeorgiaState	186	169
WesternIllinois	187	187
LouisianaMonroe	188	162
MurrayState	189	144
WesternMichigan	190	219
NorthernArizona	191	245
WesternCarolina	192	86
CentralConnecticut	193	111
HawaiiU	194	263
Hartford	195	138
Radford	196	152
VermontU	197	83
Drexel	198	190
SetonHall	199	200
Evansville	200	148
DelawareU	201	193
TennesseeMartin	202	202
KennesawState	203	184
Mercer	204	151
StephenFAustin	205	165
LoyolaMD	206	195
RhodeIslandU	207	155
NorthernKentucky	208	210
Valparaiso	209	204
UTEP	210	268
NevadaU	211	319
IndianaState	212	253
Fairfield	213	150
Richmond	214	197
IllinoisState	215	220
UMassLowell	216	119
Binghamton	217	175
EasternKentucky	218	206
LaSalle	219	224
UNCGreensboro	220	194
Lamar	221	123
GeorgeMason	222	216
Colgate	223	215
MissouriState	224	207
Lehigh	225	239
McNeeseState	226	157
UtahTech	227	228
LoyolaMarymount	228	279
Stonehill	229	160
StonyBrook	230	225
Albany	231	147
UALR	232	208
TexasState	233	189
GreenBay	234	218
SacramentoState	235	309
NewHampshireU	236	172
LouisianaLafayette	237	240
EastTennesseeState	238	230
FairleighDickinson	239	191
StJosephs	240	269
Army	241	267
EasternWashington	242	302
Cornell	243	234
Belmont	244	257
SoutheastMissouriState	245	266
CollegeofCharleston	246	231
SELouisiana	247	213
StBonaventure	248	236
CoastalCarolina	249	255
CalStateNorthridge	250	270
Yale	251	229
Siena	252	211
Chattanooga	253	233
UNI	254	265
Citadel	255	222
UMKC	256	262
Iona	257	250
AppalachianState	258	258
IncarnateWord	259	188
GeorgeWashington	260	278
IPFW	261	246
Marist	262	247
IUPUI	263	254
CalStateBakersfield	264	310
PortlandState	265	318
Bellarmine	266	273
Troy	267	242
HoustonBaptist	268	241
NJIT	269	259
OralRoberts	270	272
American	271	283
SamHoustonState	272	237
Duquesne	273	280
WrightState	274	274
EasternMichigan	275	297
Marshall	276	260
Fordham	277	299
Stetson	278	261
JacksonvilleState	279	235
Longwood	280	214
AbileneChristian	281	238
Lafayette	282	317
FIU	283	315
SacredHeart	284	249
Morehead	285	298
MaineU	286	271
Davidson	287	275
NorthDakotaU	288	316
ClevelandState	289	286
NorthernIllinois	290	296
JacksonvilleU	291	291
StThomas	292	308
AustinPeay	293	282
TexasCommerce	294	251
IllinoisChicago	295	314
NorthDakotaState	296	306
Manhattan	297	277
Bryant	298	281
Howard	299	276
SouthernUtah	300	290
Wofford	301	288
Akron	302	300
CharlestonSouthern	303	285
Rider	304	307
EasternIllinois	305	326
YoungstownState	306	325
UMBC	307	311
PrairieViewA&M	308	243
Detroit	309	313
TexasCorpusChristi	310	284
UNCAsheville	311	292
GardnerWebb	312	305
TexasRGV	313	295
Winthrop	314	294
Merrimack	315.5	293
StFrancisBrooklyn	315.5	301
Wagner	317	340
Queens	318.5	304
SouthernIndiana	318.5	332
HolyCross	320	337
Grambling	321	232
RobertMorris	322	324
IdahoState	323	320
MountStMary	324	303
NorthAlabama	325	323
Tarleton	326	312
VMI	327	338
TexasSouthern	328	289
LongIsland	329	336
USCUpstate	330	328
Canisius	331	335
StFrancis	332	333
AlabamaA&M	333	327
StPeters	334	342
Presbyterian	335	322
ChicagoState	336	341
SIUCarbondale	337	329
AlabamaState	338	330
Lindenwood	339	334
NichollsState	340	321
JacksonState	341	339
SouthernU	342	345
DelawareState	343	346
ArkansasPineBluff	344	344
Hampton	345	331
AlcornState	346	348
SouthCarolinaState	347	347
MississippiValley	348	343