Before each season, I prepare an Excel workbook that, among other things, assigns pre-season RPI ratings and ranks for all teams based on their historic rank trends. You can use this link to download the Team Histories and Simulated 2022 Ranks Data Only workbook. (One purpose of the workbook is to be a data source for coaches doing non-conference scheduling.) Once downloaded, the workbook will open to its User Guide page where you can find an explanation of how I assign pre-season ratings and ranks and of what their limitations are.
Once I have all team schedules, I apply the assigned pre-season RPI ratings to each game to project a game result on the assumption the result will be consistent with the two opponent ratings as adjusted for home field advantage. (Home field advantage is worth 0.0148 in RPI rating points.) If the location-adjusted rating difference between the two opponents is 0.0133 or less, then the projected game result is a tie. This is because at that rating difference level, each team has a statistical win likelihood of less than 50%, so it is better to project a tie than a win-loss. (The higher rated team is more likely to lose or tie the game than win it.)
My system also is set up to populate the conference tournament brackets based on the projected results of the in-conference games, as well as to project each conference tournament game result as described above.
With projected results for the entire season, including conference tournaments, my system then calculates final RPI ratings and ranks for all teams. One might think that the final ratings and ranks would be about the same as the assigned pre-season ratings and ranks given that all game results are consistent with the assigned pre-season ratings. In some cases, that is what happens. In many cases, however, there are significant differences. This is due in part to how team schedules interact with the RPI formula -- and can give insight into how important it is to do non-conference scheduling with a view to how the RPI formula works, if your team has NCAA Tournament aspirations. It also is due, however, to the RPI’s patterns of discriminating against (or in favor of) some conferences and geographic regions.
With that background, the following table shows team assigned pre-season RPI ranks followed by their resulting RPI ranks after going through the game results assigning process described above. You might want to bear in mind that since 2007 no team with an end-of-season RPI rank of 58 or poorer has received an NCAA Tournament at large selection, so it is likely that the end-of-season pool of candidates for an at large selection is, at best, the Top 60.
|
Team
for Simulation Rating Purposes |
Assigned
Pre Season ARPI Rank |
Resulting
Final Simulated RPI Rank |
|
Duke |
1 |
1 |
|
FloridaState |
2 |
2 |
|
ArkansasU |
3 |
4 |
|
NorthCarolinaU |
4 |
5 |
|
VirginiaU |
5 |
7 |
|
Stanford |
6 |
10 |
|
Pepperdine |
7 |
17 |
|
BYU |
8 |
24 |
|
TennesseeU |
9 |
12 |
|
SouthernCalifornia |
10 |
3 |
|
MichiganU |
11 |
8 |
|
Rutgers |
12 |
11 |
|
UCLA |
13 |
22 |
|
TCU |
14 |
14 |
|
NotreDame |
15 |
19 |
|
Brown |
16 |
6 |
|
Clemson |
17 |
13 |
|
WashingtonState |
18 |
21 |
|
Georgetown |
19 |
15 |
|
SantaClara |
20 |
33 |
|
PennState |
21 |
16 |
|
Purdue |
22 |
20 |
|
VirginiaTech |
23 |
27 |
|
Xavier |
24 |
9 |
|
Gonzaga |
25 |
54 |
|
Princeton |
26 |
18 |
|
LSU |
27 |
26 |
|
SouthCarolinaU |
28 |
23 |
|
ColoradoU |
29 |
45 |
|
NCState |
30 |
25 |
|
TexasA&M |
31 |
38 |
|
OregonU |
32 |
34 |
|
TexasU |
33 |
49 |
|
Auburn |
34 |
28 |
|
WakeForest |
35 |
40 |
|
Pittsburgh |
36 |
31 |
|
Hofstra |
37 |
29 |
|
CaliforniaU |
38 |
48 |
|
NebraskaU |
39 |
50 |
|
MississippiU |
40 |
30 |
|
WisconsinU |
41 |
51 |
|
Butler |
42 |
39 |
|
Milwaukee |
43 |
84 |
|
ArizonaState |
44 |
41 |
|
WestVirginiaU |
45 |
78 |
|
IndianaU |
46 |
100 |
|
Louisville |
47 |
69 |
|
WashingtonU |
48 |
60 |
|
Vanderbilt |
49 |
36 |
|
OhioState |
50 |
55 |
|
IowaU |
51 |
117 |
|
OklahomaState |
52 |
52 |
|
Memphis |
53 |
61 |
|
MichiganState |
54 |
58 |
|
NorthwesternU |
55 |
68 |
|
Harvard |
56 |
32 |
|
OregonState |
57 |
96 |
|
GeorgiaU |
58 |
73 |
|
SouthFlorida |
59 |
93 |
|
UtahU |
60 |
87 |
|
AlabamaU |
61 |
106 |
|
MinnesotaU |
62 |
107 |
|
Providence |
63 |
37 |
|
SMU |
64 |
46 |
|
UCF |
65 |
53 |
|
TexasTech |
66 |
82 |
|
StJohns |
67 |
57 |
|
MississippiState |
68 |
115 |
|
LoyolaChicago |
69 |
43 |
|
UNCWilmington |
70 |
44 |
|
StMarys |
71 |
101 |
|
SanFrancisco |
72 |
104 |
|
GrandCanyon |
73 |
35 |
|
NewMexicoU |
74 |
70 |
|
BostonCollege |
75 |
98 |
|
SouthernMississippi |
76 |
80 |
|
Baylor |
77 |
177 |
|
Houston |
78 |
95 |
|
Samford |
79 |
42 |
|
BowlingGreen |
80 |
47 |
|
FloridaU |
81 |
171 |
|
MissouriU |
82 |
168 |
|
KansasU |
83 |
167 |
|
Columbia |
84 |
76 |
|
Denver |
85 |
99 |
|
SouthDakotaState |
86 |
63 |
|
CalPoly |
87 |
122 |
|
IllinoisU |
88 |
182 |
|
PortlandU |
89 |
128 |
|
OldDominion |
90 |
66 |
|
ArizonaU |
91 |
161 |
|
LongBeachState |
92 |
94 |
|
UCIrvine |
93 |
140 |
|
Pacific |
94 |
198 |
|
OklahomaU |
95 |
136 |
|
Cincinnati |
96 |
166 |
|
EastCarolina |
97 |
116 |
|
VCU |
98 |
56 |
|
JamesMadison |
99 |
74 |
|
StLouis |
100 |
62 |
|
CalStateFullerton |
101 |
143 |
|
KentuckyU |
102 |
154 |
|
UtahValley |
103 |
102 |
|
NorthTexas |
104 |
72 |
|
UtahState |
105 |
90 |
|
UCSantaBarbara |
106 |
131 |
|
SouthAlabama |
107 |
67 |
|
Seattle |
108 |
103 |
|
PennsylvaniaU |
109 |
114 |
|
KentState |
110 |
64 |
|
MontanaU |
111 |
137 |
|
DePaul |
112 |
141 |
|
Marquette |
113 |
149 |
|
FresnoState |
114 |
156 |
|
Rice |
115 |
65 |
|
KansasState |
116 |
199 |
|
IowaState |
117 |
217 |
|
MiamiFL |
118 |
180 |
|
ConnecticutU |
119 |
146 |
|
MarylandU |
120 |
192 |
|
BoiseState |
121 |
173 |
|
Creighton |
122 |
145 |
|
SanDiegoU |
123 |
203 |
|
Dayton |
124 |
81 |
|
SouthDakotaU |
125 |
113 |
|
Lipscomb |
126 |
89 |
|
Buffalo |
127 |
97 |
|
SIUEdwardsville |
128 |
112 |
|
UTSA |
129 |
126 |
|
SanDiegoState |
130 |
174 |
|
Campbell |
131 |
75 |
|
UNOmaha |
132 |
201 |
|
NorthernColorado |
133 |
159 |
|
Northeastern |
134 |
88 |
|
Liberty |
135 |
59 |
|
UAB |
136 |
139 |
|
WesternKentucky |
137 |
108 |
|
Monmouth |
138 |
71 |
|
CaliforniaBaptist |
139 |
125 |
|
Toledo |
140 |
127 |
|
FloridaAtlantic |
141 |
176 |
|
CentralMichigan |
142 |
133 |
|
UCDavis |
143 |
248 |
|
Tulsa |
144 |
205 |
|
ArkansasState |
145 |
77 |
|
UNLV |
146 |
221 |
|
Charlotte |
147 |
158 |
|
WeberState |
148 |
170 |
|
Dartmouth |
149 |
130 |
|
Elon |
150 |
109 |
|
Drake |
151 |
121 |
|
MassachusettsU |
152 |
105 |
|
ColoradoState |
153 |
212 |
|
OhioU |
154 |
129 |
|
Navy |
155 |
91 |
|
BallState |
156 |
186 |
|
Quinnipiac |
157 |
85 |
|
TennesseeTech |
158 |
92 |
|
NorthFlorida |
159 |
124 |
|
ColoradoCollege |
160 |
227 |
|
BostonU |
161 |
120 |
|
AirForce |
162 |
223 |
|
Towson |
163 |
134 |
|
Furman |
164 |
118 |
|
Oakland |
165 |
183 |
|
Bucknell |
166 |
178 |
|
MiddleTennessee |
167 |
196 |
|
Villanova |
168 |
209 |
|
SanJoseState |
169 |
264 |
|
UCSanDiego |
170 |
226 |
|
Temple |
171 |
244 |
|
NewMexicoState |
172 |
181 |
|
William&Mary |
173 |
153 |
|
IdahoU |
174 |
252 |
|
HighPoint |
175 |
142 |
|
LouisianaTech |
176 |
163 |
|
MiamiOH |
177 |
179 |
|
Niagara |
178 |
110 |
|
FloridaGulfCoast |
179 |
132 |
|
GeorgiaSouthern |
180 |
164 |
|
WyomingU |
181 |
287 |
|
CentralArkansas |
182 |
135 |
|
NorthwesternState |
183 |
79 |
|
Syracuse |
184 |
185 |
|
UCRiverside |
185 |
256 |
|
GeorgiaState |
186 |
169 |
|
WesternIllinois |
187 |
187 |
|
LouisianaMonroe |
188 |
162 |
|
MurrayState |
189 |
144 |
|
WesternMichigan |
190 |
219 |
|
NorthernArizona |
191 |
245 |
|
WesternCarolina |
192 |
86 |
|
CentralConnecticut |
193 |
111 |
|
HawaiiU |
194 |
263 |
|
Hartford |
195 |
138 |
|
Radford |
196 |
152 |
|
VermontU |
197 |
83 |
|
Drexel |
198 |
190 |
|
SetonHall |
199 |
200 |
|
Evansville |
200 |
148 |
|
DelawareU |
201 |
193 |
|
TennesseeMartin |
202 |
202 |
|
KennesawState |
203 |
184 |
|
Mercer |
204 |
151 |
|
StephenFAustin |
205 |
165 |
|
LoyolaMD |
206 |
195 |
|
RhodeIslandU |
207 |
155 |
|
NorthernKentucky |
208 |
210 |
|
Valparaiso |
209 |
204 |
|
UTEP |
210 |
268 |
|
NevadaU |
211 |
319 |
|
IndianaState |
212 |
253 |
|
Fairfield |
213 |
150 |
|
Richmond |
214 |
197 |
|
IllinoisState |
215 |
220 |
|
UMassLowell |
216 |
119 |
|
Binghamton |
217 |
175 |
|
EasternKentucky |
218 |
206 |
|
LaSalle |
219 |
224 |
|
UNCGreensboro |
220 |
194 |
|
Lamar |
221 |
123 |
|
GeorgeMason |
222 |
216 |
|
Colgate |
223 |
215 |
|
MissouriState |
224 |
207 |
|
Lehigh |
225 |
239 |
|
McNeeseState |
226 |
157 |
|
UtahTech |
227 |
228 |
|
LoyolaMarymount |
228 |
279 |
|
Stonehill |
229 |
160 |
|
StonyBrook |
230 |
225 |
|
Albany |
231 |
147 |
|
UALR |
232 |
208 |
|
TexasState |
233 |
189 |
|
GreenBay |
234 |
218 |
|
SacramentoState |
235 |
309 |
|
NewHampshireU |
236 |
172 |
|
LouisianaLafayette |
237 |
240 |
|
EastTennesseeState |
238 |
230 |
|
FairleighDickinson |
239 |
191 |
|
StJosephs |
240 |
269 |
|
Army |
241 |
267 |
|
EasternWashington |
242 |
302 |
|
Cornell |
243 |
234 |
|
Belmont |
244 |
257 |
|
SoutheastMissouriState |
245 |
266 |
|
CollegeofCharleston |
246 |
231 |
|
SELouisiana |
247 |
213 |
|
StBonaventure |
248 |
236 |
|
CoastalCarolina |
249 |
255 |
|
CalStateNorthridge |
250 |
270 |
|
Yale |
251 |
229 |
|
Siena |
252 |
211 |
|
Chattanooga |
253 |
233 |
|
UNI |
254 |
265 |
|
Citadel |
255 |
222 |
|
UMKC |
256 |
262 |
|
Iona |
257 |
250 |
|
AppalachianState |
258 |
258 |
|
IncarnateWord |
259 |
188 |
|
GeorgeWashington |
260 |
278 |
|
IPFW |
261 |
246 |
|
Marist |
262 |
247 |
|
IUPUI |
263 |
254 |
|
CalStateBakersfield |
264 |
310 |
|
PortlandState |
265 |
318 |
|
Bellarmine |
266 |
273 |
|
Troy |
267 |
242 |
|
HoustonBaptist |
268 |
241 |
|
NJIT |
269 |
259 |
|
OralRoberts |
270 |
272 |
|
American |
271 |
283 |
|
SamHoustonState |
272 |
237 |
|
Duquesne |
273 |
280 |
|
WrightState |
274 |
274 |
|
EasternMichigan |
275 |
297 |
|
Marshall |
276 |
260 |
|
Fordham |
277 |
299 |
|
Stetson |
278 |
261 |
|
JacksonvilleState |
279 |
235 |
|
Longwood |
280 |
214 |
|
AbileneChristian |
281 |
238 |
|
Lafayette |
282 |
317 |
|
FIU |
283 |
315 |
|
SacredHeart |
284 |
249 |
|
Morehead |
285 |
298 |
|
MaineU |
286 |
271 |
|
Davidson |
287 |
275 |
|
NorthDakotaU |
288 |
316 |
|
ClevelandState |
289 |
286 |
|
NorthernIllinois |
290 |
296 |
|
JacksonvilleU |
291 |
291 |
|
StThomas |
292 |
308 |
|
AustinPeay |
293 |
282 |
|
TexasCommerce |
294 |
251 |
|
IllinoisChicago |
295 |
314 |
|
NorthDakotaState |
296 |
306 |
|
Manhattan |
297 |
277 |
|
Bryant |
298 |
281 |
|
Howard |
299 |
276 |
|
SouthernUtah |
300 |
290 |
|
Wofford |
301 |
288 |
|
Akron |
302 |
300 |
|
CharlestonSouthern |
303 |
285 |
|
Rider |
304 |
307 |
|
EasternIllinois |
305 |
326 |
|
YoungstownState |
306 |
325 |
|
UMBC |
307 |
311 |
|
PrairieViewA&M |
308 |
243 |
|
Detroit |
309 |
313 |
|
TexasCorpusChristi |
310 |
284 |
|
UNCAsheville |
311 |
292 |
|
GardnerWebb |
312 |
305 |
|
TexasRGV |
313 |
295 |
|
Winthrop |
314 |
294 |
|
Merrimack |
315.5 |
293 |
|
StFrancisBrooklyn |
315.5 |
301 |
|
Wagner |
317 |
340 |
|
Queens |
318.5 |
304 |
|
SouthernIndiana |
318.5 |
332 |
|
HolyCross |
320 |
337 |
|
Grambling |
321 |
232 |
|
RobertMorris |
322 |
324 |
|
IdahoState |
323 |
320 |
|
MountStMary |
324 |
303 |
|
NorthAlabama |
325 |
323 |
|
Tarleton |
326 |
312 |
|
VMI |
327 |
338 |
|
TexasSouthern |
328 |
289 |
|
LongIsland |
329 |
336 |
|
USCUpstate |
330 |
328 |
|
Canisius |
331 |
335 |
|
StFrancis |
332 |
333 |
|
AlabamaA&M |
333 |
327 |
|
StPeters |
334 |
342 |
|
Presbyterian |
335 |
322 |
|
ChicagoState |
336 |
341 |
|
SIUCarbondale |
337 |
329 |
|
AlabamaState |
338 |
330 |
|
Lindenwood |
339 |
334 |
|
NichollsState |
340 |
321 |
|
JacksonState |
341 |
339 |
|
SouthernU |
342 |
345 |
|
DelawareState |
343 |
346 |
|
ArkansasPineBluff |
344 |
344 |
|
Hampton |
345 |
331 |
|
AlcornState |
346 |
348 |
|
SouthCarolinaState |
347 |
347 |
|
MississippiValley |
348 |
343 |
No comments:
Post a Comment