Monday, September 25, 2017

2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulation 9.25.2017

Here are my system's simulated NCAA Tournament seeds, automatic qualifiers, and at large selections, based on (1) the actual results of games played through Sunday, September 24 and (2) the simulated results of future games (including simulated conference tournaments).  The simulated results of future games are based on teams' actual ARPIs derived from games played through September 24.  I've also indicated teams within the Top 60 that the simulation does not give at large selections as well as teams outside the Top 60 but that might get consideration if they were within the Top 60.  At the bottom of the table, I've indicated other potential candidates for seeds.

The NCAA Seed or Selection column's code is as follows:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded automatic qualifiers
6 = unseeded at large selections
7 = teams within the Top 60, not getting at large selections
8 = teams disqualified from at large selection due to records poorer than 0.500
9 = teams outside the Top 60 that might get consideration for at large selections if within the Top 60

NCAA Seed or Selection Automatic Qualifier ARPI Rank for Formation Team for Formation
1 AQ 1 SouthCarolinaU
1 AQ 2 Stanford
1 AQ 3 NorthCarolinaU
1 AQ 5 Rutgers
2 AQ 4 TexasU
2 AQ 6 UCF
2 0 7 UCLA
2 0 9 Duke
3 0 8 WestVirginiaU
3 0 10 LSU
3 0 12 FloridaU
3 0 13 PennState
4 AQ 11 Princeton
4 AQ 15 Georgetown
4 0 16 CaliforniaU
4 0 18 Cincinnati
5 AQ 17 Rice
5 AQ 19 MurrayState
5 AQ 23 SantaClara
5 AQ 26 Drexel
5 AQ 28 FloridaGulfCoast
5 AQ 35 LongBeachState
5 AQ 36 Monmouth
5 AQ 42 SanJoseState
5 AQ 47 NewHampshireU
5 AQ 48 UNI
5 AQ 50 KentState
5 AQ 54 MontanaU
5 AQ 58 Milwaukee
5 AQ 59 StLouis
5 AQ 60 Bryant
5 AQ 63 Lamar
5 AQ 67 Navy
5 AQ 68 UALR
5 AQ 77 Furman
5 AQ 89 Radford
5 AQ 131 Seattle
5 AQ 149 SouthDakotaState
5 AQ 186 AlabamaState
6 0 14 NotreDame
6 0 20 WashingtonU
6 0 21 MississippiU
6 0 22 TennesseeU
6 0 24 WisconsinU
6 0 25 TexasA&M
6 0 27 MichiganU
6 0 29 AlabamaU
6 0 30 Memphis
6 0 31 Baylor
6 0 32 Pepperdine
6 0 33 Purdue
6 0 34 VirginiaU
6 0 37 LoyolaMarymount
6 0 38 WakeForest
6 0 39 FloridaState
6 0 40 UtahU
6 0 41 Butler
6 0 43 Northeastern
6 0 44 Clemson
6 0 45 Auburn
6 0 49 SouthFlorida
6 0 51 NCState
6 0 52 OhioState
6 0 55 NorthwesternU
7 0 46 Marquette
7 0 53 UAB
7 0 56 Hofstra
7 0 57 ArizonaU
9 0 61 NewMexicoU
9 0 62 MississippiState
9 0 64 AustinPeay
9 0 65 UCIrvine
9 0 74 WashingtonState
9 0 75 Gonzaga
9 0 79 Brown
9 0 80 TexasTech

Other potential seeds:

#1:  Texas, UCF, UCLA, Duke
#2:  LSU, Florida, Penn State, West Virginia
#3:  Princeton, Cincinnati, California, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Washington
#4:  Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Washington, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Virginia, Pepperdine, Santa Clara

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