Saturday, November 5, 2016

Reports Summary: Games Through Friday, November 4

The post below this one is my updated NCAA Tournament bracket simulation, now based on games through Friday, November 4.  Here are a number of notes:

Seeds:  The #1 and #2 seeds are clearer, the #3 and #4 seeds not so clear.  There are unseeded teams that could receive seeds, the most likely of which is Florida State.  Connecticut also is a possibility for a seed, as are Duke, Rutgers, and Nebraska.  Of the seeded teams, the most likely to be bumped from seeding are Minnesota, Auburn, Arkansas, and Virginia.  This all is based on the simulation having North Carolina, Minnesota, and Florida winning their conference tournaments.

At Large "In":  There are some "iffy" teams getting at large selections.  Among -- but not all of -- them are:

#29 Princeton is relying almost exclusively on its ARPI and ANCRPI ranks.  Its best result is a tie against #48 Bucknell.  At #29, based on past history, it should be a lock for an at large selection, but based on a close review of its actual games, it looks undeserving of an at large selection.  Assuming Princeton wins its game tonight against Penn, Princeton will test the Committee's allegiance to the RPI.  If Princeton loses, it may make the Committee's job easier.

#45 NC State is relying mostly on some very good results, but also has a bunch of negatives.  Here, the test will be of the value the Committee assigns to very good results, especially in comparison to NC State's not-so-good position in the ACC.

#55 Oklahoma State has both positive and negative attributes.

#42 and #44 Texas Tech and Missouri have positive attributes, with Texas Tech also having a negative, but they are just on the right side of the border.

At Large "Out":  There are some other teams that might get at large selections.  Among -- but not all of -- them are:

#40 Virginia Tech has some positive attributes, but a poor position in the ACC.  Although it is not unheard of for the #9 team in a conference to get an at large selection, it is very difficult no matter how strong the conference.  And this year, the ACC is not the top conference according to the ARPI and the ANCRPI.

#39 and #51 Loyola Marymount and Michigan are relatively strong potential candidates for at large selections.  They don't have any strong positive attributes, but they don't have any strong negatives either.

#57 DePaul has a couple of positive attributes, but a bunch of negatives.

And, if one wants to drop down in the rankings to areas from which the Committee has not picked an at large selection over the last decade, #58 Texas A&M and #63 Baylor might receive some Committee consideration although each has negatives that probably are too strong.

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