Reports Summary: Games Through October 16

The following three reports are in the posts just before this one:

Weekly RPI Report: Games Through October 16:

This is a report showing teams' actual ARPI ratings and ranks for games through Sunday, October 16.  For those interested in the NCAA Tournament, the following are the potential seed and at large selection ranges based on what's happened over the last 9 years:

Potential #1 seeds:  teams ranked #19 or better

Potential #2 seeds:  teams ranked #25 or better

Potential #3 seeds:  teams ranked #30 or better

Potential #4 seeds:  teams ranked #43 or better

Likely assured of getting an at large selection: teams ranked #29 or better

Likely not to get an at large selection:  teams ranked #79 or poorer

Could or could not get an at large selection:  teams ranked #30 to #78

Although I have not yet done a complete comparison of my ARPI ratings and ranks to the NCAA's, my preliminary comparison indicates that our ratings and ranks match.

2016 Season Simulation:  Week 9 Update (Games Through October 16):

This report is based on a simulation that uses actual game results for games already played and simulated game results for games not yet played (including simulated conference tournaments).  For games not yet played, the simulated results are based on teams' current actual ARPIs, adjusted for home field advantage.

For those interested in the season simulation, when using teams' current actual ARPIs:

When the simulation projects a win it is correct (based on games already played) 70.2% of the time;

When the simulation projects a win, the projected winning team actually loses 11.6% of the time;

The remaining 18.2% of the time, either the simulation projects a tie but the result is not a tie, or the simulation projects a win/loss but the result is a tie.

2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulation:  Week 9 Update (Games Through October 16):

This simulation is of the seeds, automatic qualifiers, and at large selections for the NCAA Tournament, based on the Women's Soccer Committee's decisions over the past 9 years.  The simulation is based on the Season Simulation in the preceding report.