2016 Season Simulation: Week 10 Update (Games Through October 23)

In the season simulation, I include simulated conference tournaments.  To set up the tournaments, I base the seeding on conference points scored by teams over the course of the season, including using simulated game results for future conference games.  If teams in a conference have scored the same number of conference points, I give the better seed to the team with the better ARPI.  I do the same when multiple teams with the same number of points are in line for a last slot in a conference tournament.  In other words, I do not use each conference's "tie break" procedure.  I don't because (1) it would make the project too complicated, (2) not all conferences' tie break procedures are easily accessible, and (3) since the conference's season is not yet completed, using ARPIs to make distinctions may be the best way to simulate likely tournament brackets.  Once a conference has played all its games -- there are five conferences that have reached this point, so far -- then I use the conference's published tournament bracket rather than a simulated bracket.

Here are the simulated full season ratings and rankings:

Team	Conference	Adjusted RPI	ARPI Rank	Total Wins	Total Losses	Total Ties
Stanford	PacTwelve	0.7077	1	17	1	1
WestVirginiaU	BigTwelve	0.7054	2	19	1	1
SouthCarolinaU	SEC	0.7005	3	20	0	1
SouthernCalifornia	PacTwelve	0.6774	4	16	3	0
OklahomaU	BigTwelve	0.6709	5	15	5	2
Georgetown	BigEast	0.6651	6	17	2	2
UCLA	PacTwelve	0.6630	7	14	4	1
Clemson	ACC	0.6585	8	13	3	4
VirginiaU	ACC	0.6583	9	13	3	3
NotreDame	ACC	0.6521	10	13	2	6
ConnecticutU	American	0.6510	11	19	2	1
Duke	ACC	0.6484	12	13	3	5
FloridaU	SEC	0.6465	13	14	4	1
Auburn	SEC	0.6464	14	14	6	1
BYU	WestCoast	0.6435	15	16	2	1
FloridaState	ACC	0.6409	16	12	2	5
ArkansasU	SEC	0.6345	17	16	5	0
Rutgers	BigTen	0.6328	18	11	2	7
NebraskaU	BigTen	0.6308	19	12	5	4
NorthCarolinaU	ACC	0.6270	20	10	4	4
KansasU	BigTwelve	0.6261	21	11	5	4
MinnesotaU	BigTen	0.6222	22	14	3	5
NorthwesternU	BigTen	0.6201	23	15	1	5
Memphis	American	0.6169	24	15	4	2
Marquette	BigEast	0.6149	25	12	7	2
Princeton	Ivy	0.6130	26	12	4	1
OhioState	BigTen	0.6108	27	10	6	4
UtahU	PacTwelve	0.6086	28	10	5	4
StJosephs	AtlanticTen	0.6064	29	19	1	2
CaliforniaU	PacTwelve	0.6062	30	14	3	3
Pepperdine	WestCoast	0.6037	31	13	3	3
BallState	MidAmerican	0.6035	32	17	3	2
Rice	ConferenceUSA	0.6018	33	13	4	2
PennState	BigTen	0.5995	34	10	4	5
IowaState	BigTwelve	0.5966	35	11	8	1
SMU	American	0.5957	36	13	5	2
LongBeachState	BigWest	0.5941	37	11	6	3
Fordham	AtlanticTen	0.5891	38	11	4	5
Harvard	Ivy	0.5880	39	10	3	3
Providence	BigEast	0.5875	40	13	6	2
VirginiaTech	ACC	0.5861	41	11	5	3
ColoradoU	PacTwelve	0.5858	42	13	6	1
NCState	ACC	0.5849	43	10	8	1
LoyolaMarymount	WestCoast	0.5847	44	11	5	3
SouthAlabama	SunBelt	0.5840	45	15	5	1
OregonU	PacTwelve	0.5834	46	11	8	1
NorthTexas	ConferenceUSA	0.5830	47	16	4	2
StLouis	AtlanticTen	0.5822	48	15	4	3
SantaClara	WestCoast	0.5806	49	8	6	5
KentState	MidAmerican	0.5796	50	14	3	2
Brown	Ivy	0.5792	51	10	2	4
UNLV	MountainWest	0.5788	52	17	3	2
Samford	Southern	0.5771	53	14	4	2
WisconsinU	BigTen	0.5757	54	7	6	7
TexasA&M	SEC	0.5745	55	11	8	1
MissouriU	SEC	0.5744	56	11	7	1
OklahomaState	BigTwelve	0.5738	57	9	8	3
MichiganU	BigTen	0.5736	58	10	5	3
Northeastern	Colonial	0.5728	59	14	6	1
CentralArkansas	Southland	0.5722	60	17	3	1
Tulsa	American	0.5713	61	9	9	3
DePaul	BigEast	0.5696	62	10	7	2
BostonCollege	ACC	0.5693	63	11	7	1
GeorgeMason	AtlanticTen	0.5691	64	14	5	2
SanDiegoU	WestCoast	0.5685	65	11	7	1
CalStateNorthridge	BigWest	0.5676	66	12	5	5
TexasTech	BigTwelve	0.5660	67	8	8	2
CentralMichigan	MidAmerican	0.5654	68	15	3	3
KentuckyU	SEC	0.5639	69	6	8	4
TCU	BigTwelve	0.5632	70	10	6	2
TexasU	BigTwelve	0.5603	71	8	10	1
EasternKentucky	OhioValley	0.5587	72	15	4	0
Bucknell	Patriot	0.5585	73	15	3	1
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.5584	74	9	8	2
UCF	American	0.5574	75	8	9	2
Louisville	ACC	0.5564	76	7	7	4
UALR	SunBelt	0.5560	77	13	8	1
WakeForest	ACC	0.5547	78	10	8	0
MiamiFL	ACC	0.5532	79	10	9	0
Baylor	BigTwelve	0.5516	80	11	7	1
HighPoint	BigSouth	0.5507	81	14	5	2
MississippiU	SEC	0.5504	82	9	10	1
WesternKentucky	ConferenceUSA	0.5487	83	14	6	0
Monmouth	MetroAtlantic	0.5486	84	14	4	2
SanJoseState	MountainWest	0.5474	85	11	5	5
Lipscomb	AtlanticSun	0.5473	86	12	4	3
FloridaGulfCoast	AtlanticSun	0.5470	87	13	4	2
Drake	MissouriValley	0.5468	88	15	4	2
ArizonaU	PacTwelve	0.5460	89	8	10	1
WashingtonState	PacTwelve	0.5452	90	7	10	2
Charlotte	ConferenceUSA	0.5424	91	11	8	1
GeorgeWashington	AtlanticTen	0.5420	92	11	7	2
TennesseeU	SEC	0.5413	93	10	9	2
OregonState	PacTwelve	0.5413	94	6	10	4
UNCWilmington	Colonial	0.5411	95	11	6	3
IndianaU	BigTen	0.5409	96	7	8	4
UtahState	MountainWest	0.5387	97	12	9	0
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.5387	98	8	6	2
SanDiegoState	MountainWest	0.5385	99	10	6	4
Cincinnati	American	0.5378	100	11	6	3
SouthFlorida	American	0.5372	101	10	5	3
Hartford	AmericaEast	0.5358	102	13	4	2
UCSantaBarbara	BigWest	0.5343	103	12	5	2
UCIrvine	BigWest	0.5340	104	14	6	1
EasternWashington	BigSky	0.5335	105	13	3	4
WesternMichigan	MidAmerican	0.5326	106	13	7	1
StephenFAustin	Southland	0.5319	107	13	5	0
Creighton	BigEast	0.5314	108	9	6	2
Hofstra	Colonial	0.5311	109	10	7	1
Milwaukee	Horizon	0.5310	110	14	4	2
MurrayState	OhioValley	0.5298	111	9	5	4
AlabamaU	SEC	0.5294	112	8	8	3
Syracuse	ACC	0.5290	113	8	8	3
Columbia	Ivy	0.5283	114	7	5	5
Liberty	BigSouth	0.5281	115	13	8	0
Butler	BigEast	0.5279	116	11	7	2
GeorgiaU	SEC	0.5275	117	5	12	1
Albany	AmericaEast	0.5270	118	10	6	3
Seattle	WAC	0.5263	119	12	5	3
StJohns	BigEast	0.5248	120	8	5	6
PortlandU	WestCoast	0.5243	121	9	7	3
MichiganState	BigTen	0.5232	122	7	10	1
StonyBrook	AmericaEast	0.5231	123	10	9	1
NorthernKentucky	Horizon	0.5197	124	12	6	1
Duquesne	AtlanticTen	0.5187	125	11	7	3
Richmond	AtlanticTen	0.5182	126	10	9	1
HawaiiU	BigWest	0.5177	127	9	6	2
JamesMadison	Colonial	0.5171	128	9	10	1
UtahValley	WAC	0.5171	129	11	6	4
WashingtonU	PacTwelve	0.5171	130	6	12	2
AppalachianState	SunBelt	0.5163	131	9	7	3
UTEP	ConferenceUSA	0.5161	132	12	7	2
BostonU	Patriot	0.5161	133	8	11	2
MississippiState	SEC	0.5158	134	6	12	0
SouthDakotaState	Summit	0.5151	135	12	6	2
LSU	SEC	0.5150	136	7	11	1
Rider	MetroAtlantic	0.5148	137	11	6	3
SetonHall	BigEast	0.5143	138	6	10	1
Buffalo	MidAmerican	0.5141	139	7	8	5
IdahoU	BigSky	0.5121	140	11	4	5
CoastalCarolina	SunBelt	0.5112	141	10	6	4
William&Mary	Colonial	0.5104	142	10	8	1
Lehigh	Patriot	0.5086	143	12	4	3
ArkansasState	SunBelt	0.5085	144	6	8	4
IowaU	BigTen	0.5085	145	8	11	0
AustinPeay	OhioValley	0.5073	146	11	7	3
Yale	Ivy	0.5072	147	5	7	4
Drexel	Colonial	0.5071	148	8	7	5
LouisianaTech	ConferenceUSA	0.5056	149	14	6	1
LouisianaMonroe	SunBelt	0.5043	150	7	8	4
PennsylvaniaU	Ivy	0.5020	151	9	5	2
IllinoisState	MissouriValley	0.5019	152	12	6	2
Troy	SunBelt	0.5003	153	8	9	3
TennesseeTech	OhioValley	0.5003	154	11	7	3
FloridaAtlantic	ConferenceUSA	0.4997	155	10	8	2
WyomingU	MountainWest	0.4994	156	10	8	2
Furman	Southern	0.4994	157	12	5	1
ArizonaState	PacTwelve	0.4989	158	6	11	2
NorthDakotaState	Summit	0.4968	159	10	7	2
MiamiOH	MidAmerican	0.4961	160	8	9	2
OldDominion	ConferenceUSA	0.4931	161	6	13	0
RhodeIslandU	AtlanticTen	0.4915	162	6	8	4
IllinoisU	BigTen	0.4914	163	6	11	2
Towson	Colonial	0.4900	164	6	12	1
Colgate	Patriot	0.4894	165	7	8	5
CollegeofCharleston	Colonial	0.4893	166	10	7	3
NorthwesternState	Southland	0.4890	167	10	8	1
AbileneChristian	Southland	0.4879	168	10	9	2
CalStateFullerton	BigWest	0.4875	169	7	12	0
OralRoberts	Summit	0.4872	170	10	10	1
Cornell	Ivy	0.4862	171	4	10	2
EastTennesseeState	Southern	0.4861	172	13	6	2
Xavier	BigEast	0.4854	173	7	11	1
Elon	Colonial	0.4854	174	7	9	3
Howard	Southwestern	0.4852	175	15	4	2
Siena	MetroAtlantic	0.4852	176	10	6	3
FresnoState	MountainWest	0.4838	177	9	9	1
KansasState	Independent	0.4838	178	5	9	2
SanFrancisco	WestCoast	0.4835	179	7	12	0
FairleighDickinson	Northeast	0.4834	180	9	10	2
CalStateBakersfield	WAC	0.4834	181	9	10	1
NorthernColorado	BigSky	0.4826	182	11	9	2
NewHampshireU	AmericaEast	0.4820	183	7	9	3
Houston	American	0.4815	184	6	8	3
Navy	Patriot	0.4811	185	8	10	3
CalPoly	BigWest	0.4807	186	7	10	2
UNCGreensboro	Southern	0.4806	187	7	11	2
EasternMichigan	MidAmerican	0.4805	188	6	10	4
Gonzaga	WestCoast	0.4800	189	6	10	2
Stetson	AtlanticSun	0.4800	190	8	7	2
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.4797	191	2	15	1
VermontU	AmericaEast	0.4784	192	7	7	4
GeorgiaState	SunBelt	0.4782	193	5	6	6
AirForce	MountainWest	0.4777	194	7	8	3
Quinnipiac	MetroAtlantic	0.4776	195	10	6	2
Marshall	ConferenceUSA	0.4769	196	5	8	4
Campbell	BigSouth	0.4766	197	12	8	0
SoutheastMissouriState	OhioValley	0.4766	198	7	6	4
MontanaU	BigSky	0.4766	199	8	6	6
CentralConnecticut	Northeast	0.4763	200	9	9	3
Purdue	BigTen	0.4761	201	4	12	1
VCU	AtlanticTen	0.4761	202	7	11	1
UMKC	WAC	0.4756	203	7	10	4
Marist	MetroAtlantic	0.4753	204	10	8	2
ColoradoCollege	MountainWest	0.4748	205	7	11	1
BoiseState	MountainWest	0.4746	206	6	11	4
NewMexicoU	MountainWest	0.4745	207	8	8	3
Mercer	Southern	0.4741	208	10	9	1
WrightState	Horizon	0.4741	209	8	10	2
SouthernMississippi	ConferenceUSA	0.4739	210	8	7	2
NorthernArizona	BigSky	0.4728	211	8	7	5
Belmont	OhioValley	0.4724	212	6	9	4
MissouriState	MissouriValley	0.4718	213	6	9	3
GrandCanyon	WAC	0.4709	214	7	10	1
DelawareU	Colonial	0.4709	215	4	13	1
Villanova	BigEast	0.4707	216	3	15	0
EastCarolina	American	0.4699	217	5	12	1
Detroit	Horizon	0.4697	218	9	7	2
Toledo	MidAmerican	0.4697	219	7	10	2
BowlingGreen	MidAmerican	0.4678	220	8	10	2
KennesawState	AtlanticSun	0.4668	221	10	8	1
GeorgiaSouthern	SunBelt	0.4665	222	6	10	1
StFrancis	Northeast	0.4664	223	8	11	1
Lafayette	Patriot	0.4664	224	6	7	5
Denver	Summit	0.4655	225	8	10	1
LouisianaLafayette	SunBelt	0.4654	226	8	9	2
UCDavis	BigWest	0.4653	227	5	10	3
FIU	ConferenceUSA	0.4653	228	4	10	3
MassachusettsU	AtlanticTen	0.4631	229	3	10	4
NorthernIllinois	MidAmerican	0.4623	230	4	10	4
SacredHeart	Northeast	0.4608	231	10	6	3
LoyolaMD	Patriot	0.4604	232	6	6	4
TexasState	SunBelt	0.4600	233	6	9	3
MarylandU	BigTen	0.4598	234	3	15	1
TexasSouthern	Southwestern	0.4583	235	9	6	2
UCRiverside	BigWest	0.4572	236	5	11	3
Longwood	BigSouth	0.4568	237	8	9	2
LaSalle	AtlanticTen	0.4532	238	3	11	4
Radford	BigSouth	0.4519	239	7	9	0
SIUEdwardsville	OhioValley	0.4517	240	8	9	2
GardnerWebb	BigSouth	0.4516	241	9	9	3
IUPUI	Summit	0.4508	242	7	8	3
StMarys	WestCoast	0.4497	243	3	15	2
ArkansasPineBluff	Southwestern	0.4490	244	8	6	2
Morehead	OhioValley	0.4465	245	6	11	2
MaineU	AmericaEast	0.4461	246	7	9	0
McNeeseState	Southland	0.4449	247	9	9	1
UMBC	AmericaEast	0.4448	248	6	10	1
UTSA	ConferenceUSA	0.4445	249	6	13	0
Dayton	AtlanticTen	0.4427	250	5	10	4
SacramentoState	BigSky	0.4424	251	6	7	5
OhioU	MidAmerican	0.4418	252	5	12	1
IndianaState	MissouriValley	0.4408	253	7	10	2
Davidson	AtlanticTen	0.4399	254	5	13	1
Army	Patriot	0.4397	255	4	12	2
WesternCarolina	Southern	0.4395	256	8	12	0
UMassLowell	AmericaEast	0.4391	257	5	10	2
MiddleTennessee	ConferenceUSA	0.4390	258	4	12	1
UNI	MissouriValley	0.4383	259	5	7	5
Akron	MidAmerican	0.4383	260	4	11	4
UNOmaha	Summit	0.4377	261	6	10	3
WeberState	BigSky	0.4360	262	5	10	2
PortlandState	BigSky	0.4358	263	6	10	2
UAB	ConferenceUSA	0.4358	264	4	11	2
Chattanooga	Southern	0.4355	265	6	11	2
Canisius	MetroAtlantic	0.4348	266	7	10	0
Valparaiso	Horizon	0.4336	267	8	11	0
NichollsState	Southland	0.4335	268	6	7	3
HoustonBaptist	Southland	0.4335	269	7	11	1
NevadaU	MountainWest	0.4321	270	5	13	0
CharlestonSouthern	BigSouth	0.4315	271	6	11	1
Binghamton	AmericaEast	0.4306	272	6	10	2
Evansville	MissouriValley	0.4283	273	4	13	2
NorthFlorida	AtlanticSun	0.4279	274	6	9	1
Manhattan	MetroAtlantic	0.4278	275	6	10	1
SouthDakotaU	Summit	0.4264	276	5	13	1
SELouisiana	Southland	0.4264	277	6	10	3
ColoradoState	MountainWest	0.4261	278	3	14	2
Oakland	Horizon	0.4251	279	6	11	1
StBonaventure	AtlanticTen	0.4214	280	4	14	1
VMI	Southern	0.4200	281	8	12	0
IncarnateWord	Southland	0.4195	282	4	11	2
NJIT	AtlanticSun	0.4180	283	6	9	3
JacksonvilleU	AtlanticSun	0.4173	284	3	11	1
IllinoisChicago	Horizon	0.4172	285	6	10	2
Pacific	WestCoast	0.4169	286	1	15	1
LoyolaChicago	MissouriValley	0.4146	287	4	11	2
TexasRGV	WAC	0.4146	288	9	7	1
Temple	American	0.4140	289	3	16	0
IdahoState	BigSky	0.4129	290	6	13	0
JacksonvilleState	OhioValley	0.4092	291	5	13	1
Fairfield	MetroAtlantic	0.4091	292	3	13	2
AlabamaState	Southwestern	0.4084	293	7	10	2
HolyCross	Patriot	0.4059	294	3	12	2
TennesseeMartin	OhioValley	0.4044	295	4	14	0
SouthernUtah	BigSky	0.4030	296	2	12	2
TexasCorpusChristi	Southland	0.4029	297	3	14	1
UNCAsheville	BigSouth	0.4005	298	8	12	0
Winthrop	BigSouth	0.3971	299	4	12	1
MississippiValley	Southwestern	0.3970	300	5	8	3
WesternIllinois	Summit	0.3939	301	4	11	2
RobertMorris	Northeast	0.3933	302	6	12	0
YoungstownState	Horizon	0.3917	303	4	12	1
SamHoustonState	Southland	0.3917	304	3	15	1
ClevelandState	Horizon	0.3907	305	5	12	0
IPFW	Summit	0.3861	306	2	14	2
American	Patriot	0.3844	307	1	16	2
Iona	MetroAtlantic	0.3815	308	2	14	2
Bryant	Northeast	0.3807	309	8	11	0
EasternIllinois	OhioValley	0.3804	310	4	13	0
NewMexicoState	WAC	0.3770	311	3	14	2
Niagara	MetroAtlantic	0.3752	312	4	11	1
NorthDakotaU	BigSky	0.3704	313	1	15	2
Lamar	Southland	0.3671	314	1	15	3
Citadel	Southern	0.3606	315	5	13	0
Presbyterian	BigSouth	0.3594	316	3	14	0
MountStMary	Northeast	0.3587	317	4	13	1
LongIsland	Northeast	0.3544	318	2	15	0
DelawareState	Independent	0.3542	319	4	9	2
GreenBay	Horizon	0.3537	320	1	14	1
JacksonState	Southwestern	0.3508	321	4	13	1
Wagner	Northeast	0.3493	322	3	15	0
PrairieViewA&M	Southwestern	0.3480	323	4	12	1
Wofford	Southern	0.3434	324	2	16	1
SouthCarolinaState	Independent	0.3409	325	2	11	2
USCUpstate	AtlanticSun	0.3310	326	0	14	3
SouthernU	Southwestern	0.3303	327	3	14	0
StPeters	MetroAtlantic	0.3204	328	1	13	2
AlabamaA&M	Southwestern	0.3166	329	2	16	0
ChicagoState	WAC	0.3103	330	0	16	0
Grambling	Southwestern	0.3006	331	1	11	0
AlcornState	Southwestern	0.2903	332	1	10	0
Hampton	Independent	0.2073	333	0	8	0