2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulation: Week 10 Update (Games Through October 23)

The code for the "NCAA Seed or Selection" column is:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed

5 = automatic qualifier

6 = unseeded at large selection

7 = next teams in line for at large selection

The bracket simulation is a computer-generated simulation that compares teams' end-of-season data (using simulated results for games not yet played) to the Women's Soccer Committee's decisions over the last 9 years.  The simulation simply says that if the Committee follows the pattern over those years, here's what its decisions will be.  There are a number of cases in which a team meets criteria under which the Committee always has made a particular decision -- such as giving a team an at large selection -- and simultaneously meets criteria under which the Committee always has made the opposite decision -- such as not giving a team an at large selection.  If the Committee were making a decision today, what that means is the Committee would be facing a team profile it hasn't seen over the previous 9 years.  Because of this, in some cases I have to make a guess as to how the Committee would handle particular teams.  In those cases, I simply have made a best guess about what I think the Committee would do.

In line with the preceding paragraph, regarding at large selections, the current simulation identifies the following teams as getting at large selections, but without the data being clear on it.  The format of the list is ARPI Rank, Team, Number of "Yes" Criteria Met for Getting an At Large Selection/Number of "No" Criteria Met:

39 Harvard 4/7
41 Virginia Tech 5/15 (quite "iffy" for getting a selection)
42 Colorado 2/5
46 Oregon 0/0
49 Santa Clara 11/1
54 Wisconsin 0/0
57 Oklahoma State 4/7

The simulation identifies the following teams as not getting at large selections:

33 Rice 7/43 (very "iffy" for not getting a selection, due to its simulated rank)
43 NC State 0/11
44 LSU (0/1)
55 Texas A&M 0/1
56 Missouri (0/15)
58 Michigan (0/7)

Here are the overall simulation results:

NCAA Seed or Selection	Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank	Team
1	AQ	1	Stanford
1	AQ	2	WestVirginiaU
1	AQ	3	SouthCarolinaU
1		4	SouthernCalifornia
2		5	OklahomaU
2	AQ	6	Georgetown
2		8	Clemson
2	AQ	10	NotreDame
3		9	VirginiaU
3		12	Duke
3		13	FloridaU
3		16	FloridaState
4		7	UCLA
4	AQ	11	ConnecticutU
4		15	BYU
4		21	KansasU
5	AQ	23	NorthwesternU
5	AQ	29	StJosephs
5	AQ	31	Pepperdine
5	AQ	32	BallState
5	AQ	37	LongBeachState
5	AQ	45	SouthAlabama
5	AQ	47	NorthTexas
5	AQ	51	Brown
5	AQ	52	UNLV
5	AQ	53	Samford
5	AQ	59	Northeastern
5	AQ	60	CentralArkansas
5	AQ	72	EasternKentucky
5	AQ	73	Bucknell
5	AQ	81	HighPoint
5	AQ	84	Monmouth
5	AQ	87	FloridaGulfCoast
5	AQ	88	Drake
5	AQ	110	Milwaukee
5	AQ	118	Albany
5	AQ	119	Seattle
5	AQ	135	SouthDakotaState
5	AQ	140	IdahoU
5	AQ	175	Howard
5	AQ	200	CentralConnecticut
6		14	Auburn
6		17	ArkansasU
6		18	Rutgers
6		19	NebraskaU
6		20	NorthCarolinaU
6		22	MinnesotaU
6		24	Memphis
6		25	Marquette
6		26	Princeton
6		27	OhioState
6		28	UtahU
6		30	CaliforniaU
6		34	PennState
6		35	IowaState
6		36	SMU
6		39	Harvard
6		40	Providence
6		41	VirginiaTech
6		42	ColoradoU
6		46	OregonU
6		49	SantaClara
6		54	WisconsinU
6		57	OklahomaState
7		33	Rice
7		43	NCState
7		44	LoyolaMarymount
7		55	TexasA&M
7		56	MissouriU
7		58	MichiganU