2025 ARTICLE 25: RPI REPORTS AFTER WEEK 11 GAMES

This week's article has updates of the following reports:

Rankings and other data based on the results of games actually played to date;

Ratings and other data based on the results of games actually played to date PLUS predicted results of games not yet played.

Predicted NCAA Tournament bracket based on the Women's Soccer Committee's historic patterns (1) with the Committee using the NCAA RPI as its rating system and (2) as if the Committee were using the Balanced RPI rather than the NCAA RPI.  This also includes Chris Henderson's projected bracket so that you can compare all three.

 In a bonus article this week, I'll post a predicted NCAA Tournament bracket based on the Women's Soccer Committee's historic patterns (1) with the Committee using the NCAA RPI as its rating system and (2) as if the Committee were using the Balanced RPI rather than the NCAA RPI.  The bonus article also will include Chris Henderson's projected bracket so that you can compare all three.  And finally, it will include a case study showing why the Committee likely would include Saint Louis as an at large team if using the NCAA RPI but instead would include Kansas State if using the Balanced RPI and how the difference relates to the way the NCAA RPI computes strength of schedule.

THIS WEEK'S TABLES

1.  Actual Current Ranks.  These are based only on games already played, through Sunday, October 26.  Teams' actual ranks in these reports (and the ratings on which the ranks are based) match those published by the NCAA at the NCAA's RPI Archive (except that the NCAA mistakenly is imposing penalty adjustments for losses and ties against non-Division 1 opponents), and also those published at Chris Henderson's 2025 Division I College Women's Soccer Schedule website.  These reports also include teams' current KPI, Massey, and Balanced RPI ranks so you can compare those systems' ratings.

2.  "Predicted" End-of-Season Ranks.  These are RPI reports based on the actual results of games already played PLUS predicted results of games not yet played, including in conference tournaments.  The reports now are getting close to where teams will end up at the end of the regular season.  The reports show both NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks.

The result predictions for future games use teams' actual current NCAA RPI ratings as the basis for the predictions.  So these reports show where teams will end up if they all perform exactly in accord with their current NCAA RPI ratings.

ACTUAL CURRENT RANKS

 Here are the actual current NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks for teams.  For an Excel workbook containing these data, use the following link: 2025 RPI Report Actual Results Only After Week 11.

NOTE:  If you use the link, you will see the workbook in a Google Sheets format, which will be difficult or impossible to read.  Rather than trying to use that workbook, take the following steps to download the workbook as an Excel workbook:

Click on File in the upper left.

In the drop down menu, click on Download.

In the drop down menu, click on Microsoft Excel (.xlsx).

This will download the workbook as an Excel workbook.

In the tables, be sure to note the differences between teams', conferences', and regions' NCAA RPI ranks and their ranks, within the NCAA RPI formula, as strength of schedule contributors to their opponents' ratings.  You also can see the same information for the Balanced RPI.  Also check the the salmon-highlighted columns showing the differences between actual winning percentages and probable winning percentages.  The probable winning percentages are based on current NCAA RPI ratings.

Also, for each of teams, conferences, and regions, these reports show current KPI and Massey ranks so you can compare them to the NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks.

In the Teams table, the color coded columns on the left show, based on past history, the teams that are potential seeds and at large selections for the NCAA Tournament, given their NCAA RPI ranks at this point in the season.

Here are the actual current ranks for conferences:

And here are the current actual ranks for the regions.  Note that at the right end of the table are the distributions of each region's games among the different regions.  Next to that, you will see the proportion of tie games when teams from a region are playing opponents from the same region, which is an indicator of the level of parity within the region:

"PREDICTED" END-OF-SEASON RANKS

Here are the predicted end-of-season NCAA RPI  and Balanced RPI ranks for teams.  For an Excel workbook containing these data, use the following link: 2025 RPI Report After Week 11.

The color coded columns on the left show, based on past history, the teams that would be candidates for NCAA Tournament seed pods and at large positions if these were the final NCAA RPI ranks:

Here are the predicted end-of-season ranks for conferences:

And here are the predicted end-of-season ranks for the four geographic regions: