In part 1 of this series, I showed a history-based process for seeding teams into the NCAA Tournament bracket: pods of 4 #1 seeds, 4 #2 seeds, 4 #3 seeds, and 4 #4 seeds; a pod of additional automatic qualifiers and at large selections to bring the total at large selections to 19; and the remaining automatic qualifiers. Please refer to part 1 for how the process works.
Using on that process, based on games played through April 11, I come up with the following initial array of teams (not in order within their pods). (To rank teams within their conferences, for the conferences that played in the Fall, I used the average of their conference regular season and conference tournament finishing positions; and for the conferences that did not play in the Fall, I used their current conference ranks based average points per game played, which means I have disregarded what has happened so far in their conference tournaments. Once the season is done, I will re-rank them using the system I used for the Fall-playing conferences. Bold face = actual or most likely automatic qualifier.)
#1 seeds:
ACC, Florida State
ACC, North Carolina
Pac 12, UCLA
SEC, Arkansas
#2 seeds:
ACC, Virginia
Big 10, Penn State
Big 12, TCU
Pac 12, Southern California
#3 seeds:
ACC, Duke
SEC, Texas A&M
SEC, South Carolina
West Coast, Santa Clara
#4 seeds:
ACC, Clemson
Big 10: Ohio State
Big 12: West Virginia
Pac 12: Washington
Pod of most likely at large selections (from the non-automatic qualifiers, three will have to be removed to get the total number of at large selections down to 19):
ACC, Louisville
ACC, Notre Dame
American, South Florida
American, Memphis
Big East, Georgetown
Big 10, Illinois
Big 10, Indiana
Big 12, Oklahoma State
Big 12, Kansas
Pac 12, Arizona State
Pac 12, Stanford
SEC, Vanderbilt
SEC, Tennessee
West Coast, BYU
Pod of longer shots to displace other potential at large selections:
ACC, Virginia Tech
ACC, Wake Forest
American, SMU
Big East, Butler
Big East, Connecticut
Big 10, Wisconsin
Big 10, Minnesota
Big 10, Rutgers
Big 10, Michigan
Big 12, Baylor
Big 12, Texas
Pac 12, Colorado
Pac 12, Washington State
SEC, Missouri
SEC, Auburn
SEC, Mississippi
West Coast, Pepperdine
Atlantic 10, St. Louis (included on basis of win over Arkansas)
Conference USA, Rice (included on basis of win over Texas A&M)
The above is my history-based initial array of teams. Starting there, I need to remove three of the non-automatic qualifiers from the most likely at large selection group and, after that, I need to review the longer shot group to see if I should pick some of them to replace teams remaining in the most likely at large selection group. To do this, I use the following table. This table, and the next one, likely will not be readable as you first see it. To see it clearly, simply click on the table. That should bring up a readable version. Then, to return to this article, simply on the black area to either side of the table.
In this table, for each team on the list, I show its numbers of wins, ties, and losses against the initial #1, #2, #3, and #4 seeds, against the most likely at large selection teams (group 5), against the longer shot at large selection teams (group 6), and against other teams it played (group 7). Then, on the table, I have highlighted in green good results and in orange poor results, in relation to the position the team is competing for.
Using the table as highlighted, I then decided which three teams to remove from the likely at large selection group in order to bring the number of at large selections to 19. I removed Louisville, Indiana, and Illinois.
Next, I compared teams on the longer shot list to the remaining teams on the likely at large selection list and made two more changes: I removed Memphis and Kansas from the likely list and added Rutgers and Colorado from the longer shot list.
I then re-created the above table, but with the changes I just made:
I reviewed this table to see if I should make further changes. Although Notre Dame is a close call to retain as an at large selection, I decided to leave it with a selection. However, if St. Louis turns out not to be an automatic qualifier, I probably would give it an at large selection and would remove Notre Dame from that group. I also would consider Rice, although its chances would be smaller.
Once the selections are set, I could use the above table to place in exact order some or possibly even all of the 16 #1 to #4 seeded teams and the additional 11 teams. Some of the ordering of teams would be clear and some of it would be speculative. Since the season is not yet over, I am not going to try to do that this week. I may try to do it once the coming weekend’s final results are in.
For the remaining automatic qualifiers that are not covered by the above tables but that will be in the Tournament, I have shown in Part 1 how I would order them for seeding purposes.
Observation. The point of this is not to show what the Tournament at large selections and seeding should be. Rather, it is to show a workable system for making the at large selections and doing the seeding. The system is based on historic and current-year data, allowing for the exercise of some discretion but with pretty clearly defined boundaries. I believe, the system would produce a relatively credible and defensible bracket given the unique circumstances of this year.
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