Friday, January 20, 2017

NCAA Tournament Bracket Formation: Most Important Factors for #2 Seeds

Continuing with my reports on the most important factors in the Women's Soccer Committee's decision-making on NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds, here is a table showing the most important factors in deciding that "yes," a team gets a #2 seed:

Factor Yes 2 Seed
ARPI Rating and Top 60 CO 12
ARPI Rank and Top 60 CO Score 10
Conference ARPI and CO Score 9
Top 60 CO Score 9
ANCRPI Rating and CO Score 8
Conference Standing and Top 60 CO Score 8
ARPI Rank and Top 60 CO Rank 8
ARPI Rating and Last 8 Games (Poor Results) 8
CO Score and Last 8 Games (Poor Results) 8
ARPI Rating 7
ARPI Rating and Top 60 CO Rank 7
Conference Standing and Top 60 CO Rank 7
Top 50 Results Rank and CO Score 7
Conference Rank and CO Rank 7
ARPI Rank and Top 50 Results Rank 6
ARPI Rating and Top 50 Results Rank 6
ARPI Rating and Conference Standing 6
ARPI Rank and ANCRPI Rating 6
ANCRPI Rank and Top 50 Results Rank 5
ARPI Rank and Conference Rank 5
ARPI Rank and Rating 5
ANCRPI Rank and Top 50 Results Score 5
ARPI Rank and ANCRPI Rank 5
Top 50 Results Rank and CO Rank 5
ANCRPI Rating and Top 50 Results Rank 5
ARPI Rank and Last 8 Games (Poor Results) 5

This table shows the 26 most important factors in determining which teams get #2 seeds.  As with the #1 seeds, teams' ARPI Ratings and Ranks, paired with their Top 60 Common Opponent Results, are the most powerful factors.  (And, once again, Head to Head Results do not appear on the list of the most powerful factors.)

The following table shows the 25 most important factors in determining which teams do not get #2 seeds:

Factor No 2 Seed
ARPI Rank and Top 60 CO Rank 477
ARPI Rating and Top 50 Results Rank 472
ARPI Rank and Top 60 CO Score 467
ARPI Rank and Conference Rank 460
ARPI Rank 457
ANCRPI Rank and CO Rank 455
ANCRPI Rank and CO Score 452
ARPI Rating and Top 50 Results Score 450
ANCRPI Rating and CO Score 443
ARPI Rating and Top 60 CO Rank 437
ARPI Rating and Conference ARPI 436
ARPI Rating and Last 8 Games (Poor Results) 434
ARPI Rank and Rating 434
ARPI Rank and ANCRPI Rank 431
Conference Rank and CO Rank 423
Top 50 Results Rank and CO Score 422
ARPI Rating 421
HTH Score and Last 8 Games (Poor Results) 411
Top 50 Results Rank and CO Rank 409
ARPI Rank and Top 50 Results Rank 408
CO Score and Last 8 Games (Poor Results) 407
Top 60 CO Rank 407
ARPI Rating and Conference Rank 406
ARPI Rating and Top 60 HTH 405
ARPI Rating and ANCRPI Rank 403
Again, ARPI Rank paired with Top 60 Common Opponents Rank is the most powerful factor, with ARPI paired with Top 50 Results Rank and paired with Conference Rank also being powerful factors.

ARPI Rank, by itself, is the most powerful single factor.  By itself, this factor excludes all but the top 14 ARPI teams each year from getting a #2 seed, just as it excludes all but the top 7 ARPI teams from getting a #1 seed.

No comments:

Post a Comment