2016 Season Simulation: Week 5 Update

This Week 5 Update to the 2016 Season Simulation is a hybrid of (1) the actual results of the games played from the beginning of the season through Sunday, September 18 and (2) my simulated results for the balance of the season (including simulated conference tournaments).  Starting with this week's Update since conference games now have begun, each week I update my simulated conference tournament brackets to incorporate the results of conference games actually played.

Team	Conference	Adjusted RPI	ARPI Rank	Total Wins	Total Losses	Total Ties
WestVirginiaU	BigTwelve	0.7333	1	19	1	1
Stanford	PacTwelve	0.7284	2	17	0	2
Georgetown	BigEast	0.7038	3	19	1	0
Duke	ACC	0.7037	4	16	2	3
FloridaU	SEC	0.7022	5	18	2	0
Clemson	ACC	0.6930	6	17	2	2
UCLA	PacTwelve	0.6726	7	13	4	2
SouthernCalifornia	PacTwelve	0.6712	8	16	2	1
BYU	WestCoast	0.6705	9	18	1	0
ConnecticutU	American	0.6682	10	20	2	0
FloridaState	ACC	0.6620	11	15	3	1
PennState	BigTen	0.6590	12	14	3	4
Auburn	SEC	0.6572	13	13	6	2
VirginiaU	ACC	0.6538	14	14	4	2
OklahomaState	BigTwelve	0.6490	15	16	4	2
WisconsinU	BigTen	0.6468	16	14	3	5
Memphis	American	0.6466	17	14	4	3
BostonCollege	ACC	0.6460	18	14	2	4
SouthCarolinaU	SEC	0.6454	19	14	4	1
Rutgers	BigTen	0.6430	20	13	2	5
TexasA&M	SEC	0.6427	21	16	3	1
OklahomaU	BigTwelve	0.6400	22	12	6	3
TexasTech	BigTwelve	0.6373	23	13	4	3
Rice	ConferenceUSA	0.6366	24	15	3	1
OhioState	BigTen	0.6321	25	12	5	3
SouthAlabama	SunBelt	0.6239	26	18	2	1
CaliforniaU	PacTwelve	0.6233	27	15	4	1
WashingtonState	PacTwelve	0.6233	28	12	6	1
MinnesotaU	BigTen	0.6214	29	16	3	2
KentState	MidAmerican	0.6204	30	18	1	0
Princeton	Ivy	0.6201	31	14	2	1
UCF	American	0.6196	32	13	5	2
LongBeachState	BigWest	0.6180	33	14	5	1
VirginiaTech	ACC	0.6179	34	13	6	1
Harvard	Ivy	0.6171	35	12	3	1
LSU	SEC	0.6140	36	14	6	1
Northeastern	Colonial	0.6130	37	16	4	1
NorthCarolinaU	ACC	0.6095	38	9	6	3
Samford	Southern	0.6073	39	14	2	4
SantaClara	WestCoast	0.6064	40	10	6	3
ArizonaU	PacTwelve	0.5975	41	10	6	3
StJosephs	AtlanticTen	0.5974	42	16	2	4
Pepperdine	WestCoast	0.5971	43	13	4	2
GeorgiaU	SEC	0.5957	44	8	9	2
GeorgeWashington	AtlanticTen	0.5938	45	15	3	3
SanDiegoState	MountainWest	0.5926	46	15	5	0
KentuckyU	SEC	0.5896	47	7	6	6
NebraskaU	BigTen	0.5882	48	11	9	0
Marquette	BigEast	0.5872	49	11	7	3
WakeForest	ACC	0.5866	50	12	7	0
StJohns	BigEast	0.5824	51	12	4	4
WashingtonU	PacTwelve	0.5816	52	10	8	2
Drake	MissouriValley	0.5815	53	16	1	3
BallState	MidAmerican	0.5811	54	17	4	1
Baylor	BigTwelve	0.5770	55	11	6	2
IowaState	BigTwelve	0.5762	56	8	9	2
Tulsa	American	0.5758	57	11	9	1
SoutheastMissouriState	OhioValley	0.5750	58	16	2	1
UCSantaBarbara	BigWest	0.5742	59	17	3	1
TCU	BigTwelve	0.5742	60	11	5	2
HighPoint	BigSouth	0.5736	61	16	4	1
WesternKentucky	ConferenceUSA	0.5722	62	14	5	1
UtahU	PacTwelve	0.5696	63	8	9	2
PortlandU	WestCoast	0.5695	64	12	5	2
NotreDame	ACC	0.5689	65	8	7	3
Butler	BigEast	0.5666	66	16	4	1
Providence	BigEast	0.5643	67	10	9	1
Hofstra	Colonial	0.5613	68	12	5	3
ArkansasU	SEC	0.5611	69	9	9	1
NorthTexas	ConferenceUSA	0.5604	70	16	4	2
MississippiU	SEC	0.5602	71	8	9	3
Seattle	WAC	0.5601	72	13	4	3
StephenFAustin	Southland	0.5601	73	16	2	0
MichiganU	BigTen	0.5597	74	9	4	5
UtahState	MountainWest	0.5587	75	12	6	3
AlabamaU	SEC	0.5585	76	9	7	4
Milwaukee	Horizon	0.5528	77	15	3	2
CoastalCarolina	SunBelt	0.5526	78	13	5	3
GeorgeMason	AtlanticTen	0.5526	79	13	6	2
FloridaGulfCoast	AtlanticSun	0.5523	80	15	4	0
Buffalo	MidAmerican	0.5519	81	12	6	3
WyomingU	MountainWest	0.5518	82	14	5	2
TexasU	BigTwelve	0.5517	83	8	10	1
Rider	MetroAtlantic	0.5515	84	14	2	3
Fordham	AtlanticTen	0.5497	85	11	8	1
Cincinnati	American	0.5494	86	10	7	3
NorthwesternU	BigTen	0.5493	87	12	5	2
NCState	ACC	0.5488	88	7	10	1
IdahoU	BigSky	0.5479	89	14	3	3
Louisville	ACC	0.5468	90	8	8	2
OregonU	PacTwelve	0.5466	91	7	11	2
ArizonaState	PacTwelve	0.5463	92	7	9	3
Furman	Southern	0.5459	93	13	1	5
WesternMichigan	MidAmerican	0.5456	94	13	5	3
Brown	Ivy	0.5452	95	9	3	4
Liberty	BigSouth	0.5451	96	14	7	0
CentralMichigan	MidAmerican	0.5441	97	14	3	3
BostonU	Patriot	0.5428	98	10	10	1
JamesMadison	Colonial	0.5422	99	11	8	1
Dayton	AtlanticTen	0.5420	100	15	5	1
UNCWilmington	Colonial	0.5419	101	10	5	5
William&Mary	Colonial	0.5414	102	12	5	3
SouthFlorida	American	0.5410	103	9	5	4
DePaul	BigEast	0.5394	104	8	9	2
TennesseeU	SEC	0.5370	105	8	11	0
Albany	AmericaEast	0.5361	106	12	6	1
Syracuse	ACC	0.5360	107	8	8	3
Hartford	AmericaEast	0.5355	108	13	4	2
OregonState	PacTwelve	0.5327	109	6	10	4
CalStateNorthridge	BigWest	0.5326	110	8	6	6
KansasU	BigTwelve	0.5324	111	5	11	2
NewHampshireU	AmericaEast	0.5324	112	10	6	3
Lipscomb	AtlanticSun	0.5324	113	13	5	1
Columbia	Ivy	0.5323	114	7	5	5
MissouriU	SEC	0.5321	115	9	8	3
SanJoseState	MountainWest	0.5318	116	9	6	6
Bucknell	Patriot	0.5307	117	11	4	4
UTEP	ConferenceUSA	0.5304	118	11	4	6
Colgate	Patriot	0.5293	119	10	5	4
MontanaU	BigSky	0.5274	120	12	5	4
Navy	Patriot	0.5271	121	13	8	2
CalPoly	BigWest	0.5270	122	8	8	4
SMU	American	0.5265	123	8	10	1
SanDiegoU	WestCoast	0.5265	124	7	9	3
LaSalle	AtlanticTen	0.5240	125	7	7	5
Yale	Ivy	0.5229	126	6	6	4
UALR	SunBelt	0.5223	127	11	8	2
FloridaAtlantic	ConferenceUSA	0.5215	128	10	8	3
NorthDakotaState	Summit	0.5215	129	12	5	2
EasternWashington	BigSky	0.5189	130	13	4	3
Monmouth	MetroAtlantic	0.5162	131	13	4	3
Siena	MetroAtlantic	0.5154	132	10	5	5
CalStateFullerton	BigWest	0.5136	133	9	9	1
FresnoState	MountainWest	0.5135	134	10	6	4
UMKC	WAC	0.5131	135	11	6	4
Morehead	OhioValley	0.5103	136	11	7	3
SanFrancisco	WestCoast	0.5088	137	8	10	1
LoyolaMarymount	WestCoast	0.5086	138	5	12	2
Troy	SunBelt	0.5086	139	8	8	4
MississippiState	SEC	0.5080	140	5	13	0
Denver	Summit	0.5079	141	11	7	2
TexasState	SunBelt	0.5078	142	9	7	3
Charlotte	ConferenceUSA	0.5077	143	8	8	3
IndianaU	BigTen	0.5074	144	4	12	3
MiamiFL	ACC	0.5072	145	6	10	2
EastCarolina	American	0.5067	146	7	10	3
VermontU	AmericaEast	0.5059	147	9	6	4
OldDominion	ConferenceUSA	0.5054	148	5	9	4
UNCGreensboro	Southern	0.5050	149	8	9	3
LouisianaLafayette	SunBelt	0.5042	150	11	6	3
Creighton	BigEast	0.5041	151	7	7	3
HawaiiU	BigWest	0.5035	152	9	7	1
Gonzaga	WestCoast	0.5034	153	6	9	3
IowaU	BigTen	0.5013	154	9	9	1
Cornell	Ivy	0.5009	155	4	9	3
Duquesne	AtlanticTen	0.5008	156	9	8	3
MurrayState	OhioValley	0.5007	157	8	5	5
NewMexicoU	MountainWest	0.4997	158	9	7	4
AbileneChristian	Southland	0.4990	159	9	8	4
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.4987	160	5	12	1
AustinPeay	OhioValley	0.4986	161	10	8	2
StFrancis	Northeast	0.4984	162	13	8	0
UCIrvine	BigWest	0.4983	163	11	7	2
Richmond	AtlanticTen	0.4979	164	9	9	2
Towson	Colonial	0.4977	165	4	12	3
TennesseeMartin	OhioValley	0.4975	166	10	7	3
SouthDakotaState	Summit	0.4973	167	11	7	1
GrandCanyon	WAC	0.4970	168	10	9	1
Purdue	BigTen	0.4964	169	4	12	1
SacramentoState	BigSky	0.4953	170	10	5	4
Elon	Colonial	0.4952	171	8	9	2
NorthernIllinois	MidAmerican	0.4948	172	6	9	4
SELouisiana	Southland	0.4945	173	12	5	4
EastTennesseeState	Southern	0.4942	174	12	4	4
AppalachianState	SunBelt	0.4936	175	8	10	1
SetonHall	BigEast	0.4935	176	5	11	1
Manhattan	MetroAtlantic	0.4901	177	10	8	1
Marshall	ConferenceUSA	0.4901	178	5	7	6
UtahValley	WAC	0.4900	179	10	8	2
Mercer	Southern	0.4880	180	8	8	4
StMarys	WestCoast	0.4880	181	4	12	4
CentralArkansas	Southland	0.4871	182	12	5	3
CentralConnecticut	Northeast	0.4868	183	10	10	1
MichiganState	BigTen	0.4863	184	6	11	1
NorthernKentucky	Horizon	0.4848	185	12	6	1
OralRoberts	Summit	0.4848	186	9	9	2
ColoradoCollege	MountainWest	0.4844	187	8	9	2
Villanova	BigEast	0.4842	188	4	13	1
DelawareU	Colonial	0.4834	189	4	13	2
GeorgiaState	SunBelt	0.4830	190	5	9	4
NorthernColorado	BigSky	0.4819	191	11	8	1
BowlingGreen	MidAmerican	0.4815	192	9	9	2
BoiseState	MountainWest	0.4810	193	5	9	6
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.4796	194	6	9	1
PennsylvaniaU	Ivy	0.4791	195	8	5	3
StLouis	AtlanticTen	0.4785	196	9	9	1
HoustonBaptist	Southland	0.4784	197	10	9	1
LouisianaTech	ConferenceUSA	0.4772	198	13	6	2
LoyolaChicago	MissouriValley	0.4763	199	8	9	2
ColoradoU	PacTwelve	0.4753	200	6	14	0
Campbell	BigSouth	0.4749	201	11	7	2
Longwood	BigSouth	0.4748	202	9	9	2
StonyBrook	AmericaEast	0.4745	203	7	9	4
Lafayette	Patriot	0.4738	204	7	6	5
Belmont	OhioValley	0.4707	205	5	9	4
KennesawState	AtlanticSun	0.4706	206	10	7	2
Valparaiso	Horizon	0.4705	207	11	9	0
JacksonvilleU	AtlanticSun	0.4703	208	6	9	1
IllinoisChicago	Horizon	0.4701	209	10	7	3
MiamiOH	MidAmerican	0.4700	210	6	11	2
IllinoisU	BigTen	0.4662	211	5	13	1
MassachusettsU	AtlanticTen	0.4662	212	4	11	2
CollegeofCharleston	Colonial	0.4657	213	7	11	1
Xavier	BigEast	0.4655	214	6	12	1
MiddleTennessee	ConferenceUSA	0.4655	215	5	10	2
TennesseeTech	OhioValley	0.4654	216	9	9	2
IUPUI	Summit	0.4645	217	9	8	2
UCRiverside	BigWest	0.4631	218	4	11	4
MissouriState	MissouriValley	0.4621	219	6	8	4
Toledo	MidAmerican	0.4618	220	7	10	2
LoyolaMD	Patriot	0.4611	221	5	7	5
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.4592	222	1	15	2
FIU	ConferenceUSA	0.4580	223	3	9	5
RhodeIslandU	AtlanticTen	0.4575	224	3	10	5
Howard	Southwestern	0.4565	225	11	5	4
Evansville	MissouriValley	0.4552	226	4	12	3
Drexel	Colonial	0.4545	227	5	11	2
UMBC	AmericaEast	0.4544	228	6	10	2
Quinnipiac	MetroAtlantic	0.4525	229	9	7	2
IllinoisState	MissouriValley	0.4524	230	11	8	2
Radford	BigSouth	0.4511	231	7	7	2
GeorgiaSouthern	SunBelt	0.4481	232	4	10	3
MaineU	AmericaEast	0.4473	233	6	7	2
Pacific	WestCoast	0.4467	234	1	14	2
ArkansasState	SunBelt	0.4453	235	2	10	4
SouthernUtah	BigSky	0.4449	236	5	10	2
MarylandU	BigTen	0.4447	237	2	15	2
Houston	American	0.4443	238	6	9	1
NorthFlorida	AtlanticSun	0.4441	239	6	8	2
LouisianaMonroe	SunBelt	0.4434	240	4	12	2
VCU	AtlanticTen	0.4407	241	5	13	1
UNLV	MountainWest	0.4406	242	7	12	1
Marist	MetroAtlantic	0.4403	243	9	9	1
AlabamaState	Southwestern	0.4400	244	10	7	3
UCDavis	BigWest	0.4391	245	3	13	2
McNeeseState	Southland	0.4388	246	9	9	1
JacksonState	Southwestern	0.4382	247	9	6	4
EasternKentucky	OhioValley	0.4381	248	6	9	2
NevadaU	MountainWest	0.4380	249	5	12	1
UTSA	ConferenceUSA	0.4368	250	4	14	1
CalStateBakersfield	WAC	0.4363	251	6	13	1
CharlestonSouthern	BigSouth	0.4362	252	6	10	2
Oakland	Horizon	0.4359	253	7	10	1
Davidson	AtlanticTen	0.4349	254	4	13	2
SouthernMississippi	ConferenceUSA	0.4313	255	6	10	0
Army	Patriot	0.4307	256	4	12	2
AirForce	MountainWest	0.4303	257	6	10	2
JacksonvilleState	OhioValley	0.4291	258	4	12	3
Lehigh	Patriot	0.4276	259	6	10	1
Stetson	AtlanticSun	0.4269	260	4	9	3
Citadel	Southern	0.4268	261	8	11	0
Akron	MidAmerican	0.4267	262	5	13	1
Temple	American	0.4264	263	4	15	0
WeberState	BigSky	0.4256	264	5	11	1
NJIT	AtlanticSun	0.4234	265	6	10	2
PortlandState	BigSky	0.4225	266	6	12	0
NorthwesternState	Southland	0.4224	267	5	10	2
EasternMichigan	MidAmerican	0.4217	268	3	14	2
UAB	ConferenceUSA	0.4192	269	3	13	1
SouthDakotaU	Summit	0.4147	270	5	13	1
Binghamton	AmericaEast	0.4137	271	4	11	3
OhioU	MidAmerican	0.4133	272	2	15	1
MississippiValley	Southwestern	0.4133	273	7	7	3
WrightState	Horizon	0.4116	274	3	13	2
LongIsland	Northeast	0.4087	275	5	12	1
American	Patriot	0.4083	276	3	13	3
Bryant	Northeast	0.4073	277	7	8	3
IndianaState	MissouriValley	0.4062	278	5	12	1
YoungstownState	Horizon	0.4061	279	6	11	1
StBonaventure	AtlanticTen	0.4031	280	2	14	3
UNOmaha	Summit	0.4029	281	4	12	3
UNCAsheville	BigSouth	0.4024	282	8	12	0
Wofford	Southern	0.4023	283	6	13	0
VMI	Southern	0.4011	284	6	14	0
Fairfield	MetroAtlantic	0.4005	285	4	14	0
KansasState	Independent	0.3992	286	2	12	2
Chattanooga	Southern	0.3984	287	3	15	1
IncarnateWord	Southland	0.3979	288	3	12	2
Wagner	Northeast	0.3948	289	7	11	1
SIUEdwardsville	OhioValley	0.3941	290	3	11	4
NorthernArizona	BigSky	0.3938	291	4	13	2
ColoradoState	MountainWest	0.3936	292	2	15	2
GardnerWebb	BigSouth	0.3922	293	3	12	5
UMassLowell	AmericaEast	0.3917	294	2	12	3
ClevelandState	Horizon	0.3899	295	6	11	0
SamHoustonState	Southland	0.3881	296	4	13	2
TexasRGV	WAC	0.3872	297	8	8	1
Winthrop	BigSouth	0.3866	298	3	11	3
SacredHeart	Northeast	0.3853	299	5	9	4
UNI	MissouriValley	0.3836	300	3	10	3
Canisius	MetroAtlantic	0.3834	301	4	12	0
FairleighDickinson	Northeast	0.3833	302	1	15	3
Presbyterian	BigSouth	0.3811	303	2	13	2
MountStMary	Northeast	0.3808	304	5	10	3
NorthDakotaU	BigSky	0.3807	305	2	13	3
WesternCarolina	Southern	0.3800	306	3	16	0
Lamar	Southland	0.3795	307	2	14	3
TexasSouthern	Southwestern	0.3764	308	3	9	3
Detroit	Horizon	0.3737	309	3	12	1
NichollsState	Southland	0.3713	310	4	11	1
IPFW	Summit	0.3688	311	2	15	1
Iona	MetroAtlantic	0.3684	312	2	14	2
ArkansasPineBluff	Southwestern	0.3680	313	3	11	1
IdahoState	BigSky	0.3666	314	2	17	0
PrairieViewA&M	Southwestern	0.3619	315	4	11	2
Niagara	MetroAtlantic	0.3614	316	3	11	2
AlabamaA&M	Southwestern	0.3607	317	4	12	3
HolyCross	Patriot	0.3606	318	1	16	0
WesternIllinois	Summit	0.3521	319	1	14	2
NewMexicoState	WAC	0.3505	320	2	15	1
EasternIllinois	OhioValley	0.3428	321	2	15	0
RobertMorris	Northeast	0.3378	322	2	14	2
SouthCarolinaState	Independent	0.3347	323	2	12	1
GreenBay	Horizon	0.3339	324	0	15	1
USCUpstate	AtlanticSun	0.3302	325	0	15	2
TexasCorpusChristi	Southland	0.3184	326	0	18	0
AlcornState	Southwestern	0.3163	327	2	9	0
ChicagoState	WAC	0.3143	328	0	15	1
StPeters	MetroAtlantic	0.3084	329	1	14	1
DelawareState	Independent	0.3063	330	2	13	0
Hampton	Independent	0.2872	331	2	5	1
SouthernU	Southwestern	0.2785	332	0	15	1
Grambling	Southwestern	0.2752	333	0	11	1