2016 NCAA Bracket Simulation: Week 5 Update

Using the 2016 Season Simulation: Week 5 Update (games through September 18) from two posts previous to this one, I've applied my bracket formation system to those data to come up with Week 5 simulated automatic qualifiers, at large selections, and seeds for the NCAA Tournament bracket.  My system simply compares teams' information to (1) standards as to which, if met, the team always has gotten a particular seed or an at large selection and (2) standards as to which, if met, the team never has gotten a particular seed or at large selection.  It simply says, "If the Women's Soccer Committee is going to be consistent with all of its decisions over the last nine years, here's what it will do."  In some cases, the simulation doesn't indicate a clear decision.  In those cases, I award the decision to the team scoring best under my system.

For the Bracket simulation at this stage of the season, I'm considering teams ranked through ARPI #60 as potential at large selections.  Once we reach the end of the season (including conference tournaments), the most poorly ranked team the Women's Soccer Committee has given an at large selection (using the 2015 ARPI formula) is #57.

It is important to note that the Week 5 Bracket Simulation does not provide at large selections to Notre Dame and Arkansas.  This is because the simulation currently ranks them outside the top 60.  There is a good chance, however, that they will end the season in the top 60.  If so, then they are highly likely to get at large selections, which means that two teams the current simulation indicates for at large selections will drop down to the "next in line group.

Here's what the system comes up with following Week 5. The code for the NCAA Seed or Selection column is as follows:

1 = #1 seed

2 = #2 seed

3 = #3 seed

4 = #4 seed

5 = automatic qualifier (that is not seeded)

6 = at large selection (that is not seeded)

7 = next in line for an at large selection

NCAA Seed or Selection	Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank	Team
1	AQ	1	WestVirginiaU
1	AQ	2	Stanford
1	AQ	3	Georgetown
1	AQ	5	FloridaU
2	AQ	4	Duke
2		6	Clemson
2		8	SouthernCalifornia
2	AQ	9	BYU
3		19	SouthCarolinaU
3		7	UCLA
3		11	FloridaState
3		15	OklahomaState
4		12	PennState
4		14	VirginiaU
4	AQ	10	ConnecticutU
4		13	Auburn
5	AQ	16	WisconsinU
5	AQ	26	SouthAlabama
5	AQ	33	LongBeachState
5	AQ	30	KentState
5	AQ	24	Rice
5	AQ	53	Drake
5	AQ	39	Samford
5	AQ	35	Harvard
5	AQ	37	Northeastern
5	AQ	46	SanDiegoState
5	AQ	58	SoutheastMissouriState
5	AQ	61	HighPoint
5	AQ	72	Seattle
5	AQ	73	StephenFAustin
5	AQ	77	Milwaukee
5	AQ	80	FloridaGulfCoast
5	AQ	84	Rider
5	AQ	89	IdahoU
5	AQ	98	BostonU
5	AQ	100	Dayton
5	AQ	106	Albany
5	AQ	129	NorthDakotaState
5	AQ	162	StFrancis
5	AQ	244	AlabamaState
6		20	Rutgers
6		27	CaliforniaU
6		21	TexasA&M
6		22	OklahomaU
6		23	TexasTech
6		25	OhioState
6		38	NorthCarolinaU
6		18	BostonCollege
6		29	MinnesotaU
6		17	Memphis
6		28	WashingtonState
6		32	UCF
6		36	LSU
6		34	VirginiaTech
6		31	Princeton
6		40	SantaClara
6		41	ArizonaU
6		55	Baylor
6		60	TCU
6		48	NebraskaU
6		56	IowaState
6		43	Pepperdine
6		42	StJosephs
6		44	GeorgiaU
7		47	KentuckyU
7		49	Marquette
7		52	WashingtonU
7		45	GeorgeWashington
7		51	StJohns