2016 Season Simulation: How Teams Have Progressed

Here is a table that shows how teams' simulated rankings have changed from the initial pre-season simulation to the weekly hybrid updates that incorporate actual game results for the games already played.  Some teams have made significant moves -- both up and down -- in the simulated rankings.  The moves could be due to problems with the ratings I assigned to the teams.  Or, the moves could be due simply to upsets.

Team	Simulation	Updated Simulation Through 8/21	Updated Simulation Through 8/28	Updated Simulation Through 9/4	Updated Simulation Through 9/11
AbileneChristian	120		139	143	156
AirForce	286		277	270	256
Akron	245		263	260	257
AlabamaA&M	290		305	313	314
AlabamaState	225		232	242	242
AlabamaU	99	97	95	99	76
Albany	101		82	95	100
AlcornState	316		322	325	326
American	243		265	273	279
AppalachianState	197		183	176	170
ArizonaState	74	51	52	61	83
ArizonaU	40	44	33	34	38
ArkansasPineBluff	296		313	308	309
ArkansasState	262		244	246	247
ArkansasU	155		118	119	105
Army	240		239	264	253
Auburn	10	7	8	14	11
AustinPeay	181		179	168	154
BallState	70	58	61	68	54
Baylor	47	63	54	59	63
Belmont	229		217	204	199
Binghamton	315		296	284	260
BoiseState	190		185	192	187
BostonCollege	13	15	13	15	14
BostonU	26	31	37	46	71
BowlingGreen	188		204	205	193
Brown	107		106	89	75
Bryant	294		278	285	285
Bucknell	166		131	123	132
Buffalo	97	85	89	87	70
Butler	88	88	100	84	78
BYU	20	14	15	12	9
CaliforniaU	23	27	25	22	28
CalPoly	114		105	100	92
CalStateBakersfield	276		268	247	252
CalStateFullerton	121		96	111	121
CalStateNorthridge	137		143	129	116
Campbell	151		158	161	171
Canisius	306		294	304	312
CentralArkansas	171		149	156	179
CentralConnecticut	147		192	201	182
CentralMichigan	139		129	106	93
CharlestonSouthern	212		218	244	237
Charlotte	130		152	151	152
Chattanooga	292		293	287	277
ChicagoState	328		329	329	329
Cincinnati	73	69	83	70	74
Citadel	230		219	223	235
Clemson	4	4	5	5	5
ClevelandState	259		282	290	294
CoastalCarolina	55	60	58	88	80
Colgate	82	98	71	79	107
CollegeofCharleston	196		236	230	229
ColoradoCollege	227		193	185	164
ColoradoState	308		290	283	283
ColoradoU	235		237	227	202
Columbia	91	92	81	77	87
ConnecticutU	6	6	6	7	8
Cornell	161		125	133	128
Creighton	218		188	186	186
Dartmouth	220		203	206	204
Davidson	275		266	253	250
Dayton	64	87	97	110	102
DelawareState	333		333	332	330
DelawareU	100		136	147	169
Denver	143		171	137	149
DePaul	118		126	109	118
Detroit	313		315	317	319
Drake	63	73	57	52	50
Drexel	204		202	226	234
Duke	1	1	2	3	4
Duquesne	152		175	177	161
EastCarolina	102		112	125	143
EasternIllinois	329		328	327	321
EasternKentucky	295		279	254	243
EasternMichigan	270		270	263	245
EasternWashington	138		150	142	131
EastTennesseeState	116		116	145	150
Elon	163		167	157	172
Evansville	195		213	198	201
Fairfield	208		243	261	272
FairleighDickinson	307		304	314	306
FIU	199		226	241	227
FloridaAtlantic	106	100	104	114	126
FloridaGulfCoast	65	91	87	105	90
FloridaState	11	8	9	8	12
FloridaU	5	3	3	4	3
Fordham	141		128	115	98
FresnoState	165		159	152	144
Furman	90	79	77	75	82
GardnerWebb	297		309	301	296
GeorgeMason	111		123	120	110
Georgetown	21	19	17	11	7
GeorgeWashington	67	65	48	41	44
GeorgiaSouthern	200		222	235	215
GeorgiaState	203		210	229	207
GeorgiaU	36	30	32	44	45
Gonzaga	221		178	181	147
Grambling	332		332	333	333
GrandCanyon	158		172	163	167
GreenBay	320		323	324	324
Hampton	331		331	330	331
Hartford	136		110	107	113
Harvard	25	22	23	28	29
HawaiiU	182		170	141	140
HighPoint	46	49	60	67	64
Hofstra	45	47	46	53	67
HolyCross	302		302	307	307
Houston	205		199	199	213
HoustonBaptist	134		151	179	194
Howard	191		186	194	200
IdahoState	309		306	311	311
IdahoU	58	70	73	94	72
IllinoisChicago	144		166	180	216
IllinoisState	226		233	228	233
IllinoisU	133		146	148	166
IncarnateWord	250		256	275	286
IndianaState	280		283	282	282
IndianaU	174		182	187	175
Iona	287		292	300	308
IowaState	115		109	72	60
IowaU	117		114	112	122
IPFW	325		320	315	317
IUPUI	268		246	248	246
JacksonState	215		212	218	238
JacksonvilleState	293		286	281	262
JacksonvilleU	184		187	209	210
JamesMadison	35	56	66	90	99
KansasState	321		312	289	291
KansasU	169		168	158	127
KennesawState	186		189	215	218
KentState	51	48	44	36	31
KentuckyU	32	35	45	43	48
Lafayette	168		163	169	189
Lamar	257		284	291	299
LaSalle	125		147	138	135
Lehigh	298		289	276	270
Liberty	62	76	91	86	79
Lipscomb	129		120	118	120
LongBeachState	31	29	22	26	22
LongIsland	251		273	278	276
Longwood	98		145	159	197
LouisianaLafayette	77	78	99	113	124
LouisianaMonroe	271		255	267	258
LouisianaTech	167		176	191	192
Louisville	126		122	91	97
LoyolaChicago	157		191	197	208
LoyolaMarymount	236		230	190	155
LoyolaMD	206		190	208	221
LSU	19	20	30	31	36
MaineU	274		249	243	236
Manhattan	87	96	130	164	178
Marist	185		206	217	251
Marquette	78	80	75	51	57
Marshall	154		148	153	177
MarylandU	237		215	231	241
MassachusettsU	241		241	222	222
McNeeseState	216		200	220	255
Memphis	8	10	12	10	16
Mercer	146		161	170	174
MiamiFL	162		153	139	157
MiamiOH	244		240	216	196
MichiganState	170		157	183	205
MichiganU	96		101	93	94
MiddleTennessee	176		173	188	209
Milwaukee	83	83	88	80	86
MinnesotaU	29	26	24	23	23
MississippiState	213		201	172	148
MississippiU	59	55	62	66	91
MississippiValley	253		264	269	274
MissouriState	224		229	232	224
MissouriU	103		102	126	101
Monmouth	85	89	108	124	138
MontanaU	123		86	97	112
Morehead	124		117	128	114
MountStMary	322		317	318	315
MurrayState	179		160	160	151
Navy	66	75	78	82	123
NCState	207		184	132	119
NebraskaU	56	59	53	49	47
NevadaU	272		267	250	240
NewHampshireU	142		92	116	115
NewMexicoState	327		326	320	318
NewMexicoU	180		165	165	159
Niagara	279		303	312	316
NichollsState	301		297	306	313
NJIT	283		259	255	265
NorthCarolinaU	49	33	49	40	35
NorthDakotaState	156		142	134	137
NorthDakotaU	303		291	295	304
Northeastern	18	24	26	35	41
NorthernArizona	310		314	316	301
NorthernColorado	194		205	200	203
NorthernIllinois	164		155	154	145
NorthernKentucky	173		208	184	188
NorthFlorida	267		254	272	271
NorthTexas	68	64	65	71	88
NorthwesternState	255		247	257	269
NorthwesternU	150		90	96	96
NotreDame	145		121	92	65
Oakland	246		253	249	264
OhioState	44	50	41	33	33
OhioU	285		288	271	266
OklahomaState	16	18	19	20	15
OklahomaU	69	66	80	65	32
OldDominion	140		169	155	158
OralRoberts	233		224	189	191
OregonState	127		137	131	125
OregonU	153		115	102	89
Pacific	231		245	238	220
PennState	28	25	20	17	19
PennsylvaniaU	172		194	196	176
Pepperdine	42	40	38	37	39
Pittsburgh	234		242	225	223
PortlandState	265		257	262	261
PortlandU	79	62	55	57	53
PrairieViewA&M	278		301	310	310
Presbyterian	256		271	293	305
Princeton	39	41	35	32	25
Providence	112		103	73	68
Purdue	177		174	182	183
Quinnipiac	189		197	214	225
Radford	132		156	174	198
RhodeIslandU	258		250	236	232
Rice	14	12	14	18	18
Richmond	193		177	178	163
Rider	38	39	40	62	81
RobertMorris	318		327	328	327
Rutgers	30	36	21	25	24
SacramentoState	108		111	122	146
SacredHeart	304		307	302	297
Samford	52	43	47	47	42
SamHoustonState	248		272	280	295
SanDiegoState	43	42	31	42	43
SanDiegoU	201		195	167	139
SanFrancisco	187		164	171	141
SanJoseState	149		113	117	111
SantaClara	61	37	39	38	40
Seattle	57	52	56	54	69
SELouisiana	113		140	150	181
SetonHall	266		251	237	206
Siena	54	54	68	101	129
SIUEdwardsville	300		311	296	288
SMU	135		144	135	133
SouthAlabama	34	37	34	48	37
SouthCarolinaState	324		324	319	322
SouthCarolinaU	41	45	42	29	27
SouthDakotaState	223		220	211	212
SouthDakotaU	282		281	274	275
SoutheastMissouriState	84	68	51	50	49
SouthernCalifornia	7	9	10	9	6
SouthernMississippi	228		238	219	248
SouthernU	330		330	331	332
SouthernUtah	214		207	233	239
SouthFlorida	131		119	98	95
Stanford	2	2	1	1	2
StBonaventure	269		276	288	281
StephenFAustin	72	71	84	81	77
Stetson	277		287	286	289
StFrancis	92		132	149	160
StJohns	60	61	70	64	61
StJosephs	93		76	55	51
StLouis	238		225	210	195
StMarys	211		216	203	190
StonyBrook	192		211	213	211
StPeters	317		325	321	325
Syracuse	110	93	93	108	109
TCU	94	82	85	76	62
Temple	247		228	207	230
TennesseeMartin	175		198	173	162
TennesseeTech	219		214	212	180
TennesseeU	89	94	98	104	106
TexasA&M	12	13	18	16	17
TexasCorpusChristi	323		319	326	328
TexasRGV	305		308	299	292
TexasSouthern	291		300	298	298
TexasState	109		134	166	173
TexasTech	33	32	29	30	21
TexasU	128		138	130	117
Toledo	222		231	239	217
Towson	202		196	193	185
Troy	122		124	136	130
Tulsa	37	38	43	39	52
UAB	288		280	258	268
UALR	119		133	140	136
UCDavis	261		261	259	249
UCF	24	28	36	27	34
UCIrvine	178		154	162	153
UCLA	15	16	7	6	10
UCRiverside	252		235	234	228
UCSantaBarbara	76	72	64	58	56
UMassLowell	319		316	305	293
UMBC	260		227	224	226
UMKC	105		127	121	134
UNCAsheville	239		252	268	273
UNCGreensboro	160		141	144	142
UNCWilmington	71	77	69	83	85
UNI	289		299	292	302
UNLV	299		275	265	263
UNOmaha	311		295	303	300
USCUpstate	314		318	323	323
UtahState	104	99	94	78	73
UtahU	81	81	74	63	59
UtahValley	198		181	175	184
UTEP	86	86	107	103	108
UTSA	242		234	240	244
Valparaiso	210		223	221	231
Vanderbilt	148		162	146	165
VCU	273		269	277	259
VermontU	217		180	202	168
Villanova	209		209	195	214
VirginiaTech	17	17	16	24	26
VirginiaU	27	23	27	19	20
VMI	264		260	266	278
Wagner	232		262	294	290
WakeForest	75	67	63	56	55
WashingtonState	22	22	28	21	30
WashingtonU	50	53	50	45	46
WeberState	263		248	245	267
WesternCarolina	312		310	309	303
WesternIllinois	326		321	322	320
WesternKentucky	48	46	59	60	58
WesternMichigan	159		135	127	104
WestVirginiaU	3	5	4	2	1
William&Mary	53	57	67	74	84
Winthrop	254		285	297	287
WisconsinU	9	11	11	13	13
Wofford	183		221	252	254
WrightState	284		298	279	284
WyomingU	80	74	72	69	66
Xavier	281		274	251	219
Yale	95	84	79	85	103
YoungstownState	249		258	256	280