2016 Season Simulation: Week 3 Update

This Week 3 Update to the 2016 Season Simulation is a hybrid of (1) the actual results of the games played from the beginning of the season through Sunday, September 4 and (2) my simulated results for the balance of the season (including simulated conference tournaments).  In response to in inquiry I received: Yes, each week, the Simulation Update will come closer to what the actual end-of-season ratings, rankings, and records will be.

Team	Conference	Adjusted RPI	ARPI Rank	Total Wins	Total Losses	Total Ties
Stanford	PacTwelve	0.7425	1	18	0	1
WestVirginiaU	BigTwelve	0.7165	2	19	1	1
Duke	ACC	0.7164	3	17	1	3
FloridaU	SEC	0.7137	4	19	1	0
Clemson	ACC	0.6971	5	17	2	2
UCLA	PacTwelve	0.6855	6	13	3	3
ConnecticutU	American	0.6842	7	20	2	0
FloridaState	ACC	0.6799	8	16	2	1
SouthernCalifornia	PacTwelve	0.6762	9	16	2	1
Memphis	American	0.6684	10	15	3	3
Georgetown	BigEast	0.6682	11	17	2	1
BYU	WestCoast	0.6648	12	18	1	0
WisconsinU	BigTen	0.6631	13	16	2	4
Auburn	SEC	0.6596	14	14	5	2
BostonCollege	ACC	0.6595	15	15	3	3
TexasA&M	SEC	0.6467	16	15	3	2
PennState	BigTen	0.6461	17	13	5	2
Rice	ConferenceUSA	0.6449	18	15	2	2
VirginiaU	ACC	0.6432	19	13	3	3
OklahomaState	BigTwelve	0.6388	20	16	4	2
WashingtonState	PacTwelve	0.6367	21	13	6	0
CaliforniaU	PacTwelve	0.6365	22	16	3	1
MinnesotaU	BigTen	0.6362	23	18	3	1
VirginiaTech	ACC	0.6356	24	13	5	2
Rutgers	BigTen	0.6338	25	13	3	4
LongBeachState	BigWest	0.6333	26	15	4	1
UCF	American	0.6266	27	13	5	2
Harvard	Ivy	0.6254	28	12	3	1
SouthCarolinaU	SEC	0.6246	29	13	5	1
TexasTech	BigTwelve	0.6241	30	13	4	3
LSU	SEC	0.6224	31	14	5	2
Princeton	Ivy	0.6211	32	13	2	2
OhioState	BigTen	0.6203	33	12	6	2
ArizonaU	PacTwelve	0.6177	34	11	5	3
Northeastern	Colonial	0.6162	35	15	4	2
KentState	MidAmerican	0.6143	36	18	1	0
Pepperdine	WestCoast	0.6129	37	15	3	1
SantaClara	WestCoast	0.6116	38	11	6	2
Tulsa	American	0.6115	39	13	6	2
NorthCarolinaU	ACC	0.6083	40	9	6	3
GeorgeWashington	AtlanticTen	0.5994	41	16	2	4
SanDiegoState	MountainWest	0.5988	42	15	4	1
KentuckyU	SEC	0.5963	43	8	7	5
GeorgiaU	SEC	0.5949	44	8	9	2
WashingtonU	PacTwelve	0.5946	45	10	7	3
BostonU	Patriot	0.5932	46	12	6	3
Samford	Southern	0.5914	47	12	3	5
SouthAlabama	SunBelt	0.5902	48	16	3	2
NebraskaU	BigTen	0.5898	49	10	8	2
SoutheastMissouriState	OhioValley	0.5889	50	17	1	1
Marquette	BigEast	0.5869	51	12	7	2
Drake	MissouriValley	0.5862	52	16	1	3
Hofstra	Colonial	0.5853	53	13	4	3
Seattle	WAC	0.5820	54	14	2	4
StJosephs	AtlanticTen	0.5816	55	15	2	4
WakeForest	ACC	0.5804	56	12	7	0
PortlandU	WestCoast	0.5796	57	13	4	2
UCSantaBarbara	BigWest	0.5794	58	17	2	2
Baylor	BigTwelve	0.5794	59	12	6	2
WesternKentucky	ConferenceUSA	0.5785	60	14	5	2
ArizonaState	PacTwelve	0.5762	61	8	8	3
Rider	MetroAtlantic	0.5747	62	15	2	2
UtahU	PacTwelve	0.5743	63	10	9	1
StJohns	BigEast	0.5738	64	12	4	4
OklahomaU	BigTwelve	0.5723	65	8	9	3
MississippiU	SEC	0.5699	66	8	9	4
HighPoint	BigSouth	0.5675	67	15	5	1
BallState	MidAmerican	0.5670	68	16	4	2
WyomingU	MountainWest	0.5661	69	15	4	2
Cincinnati	American	0.5649	70	10	8	2
NorthTexas	ConferenceUSA	0.5647	71	15	2	4
IowaState	BigTwelve	0.5624	72	7	9	3
Providence	BigEast	0.5619	73	10	9	1
William&Mary	Colonial	0.5614	74	13	4	3
Furman	Southern	0.5604	75	12	0	6
TCU	BigTwelve	0.5603	76	11	6	1
Columbia	Ivy	0.5596	77	9	4	4
UtahState	MountainWest	0.5592	78	12	6	3
Colgate	Patriot	0.5580	79	12	4	4
Milwaukee	Horizon	0.5570	80	15	3	2
StephenFAustin	Southland	0.5566	81	14	2	2
Navy	Patriot	0.5556	82	14	6	2
UNCWilmington	Colonial	0.5553	83	10	4	6
Butler	BigEast	0.5549	84	16	4	1
Yale	Ivy	0.5541	85	8	4	4
Liberty	BigSouth	0.5540	86	14	6	1
Buffalo	MidAmerican	0.5537	87	12	5	4
CoastalCarolina	SunBelt	0.5520	88	13	5	3
Brown	Ivy	0.5512	89	9	3	4
JamesMadison	Colonial	0.5506	90	11	7	2
Louisville	ACC	0.5504	91	8	7	3
NotreDame	ACC	0.5503	92	8	9	1
MichiganU	BigTen	0.5502	93	7	4	7
IdahoU	BigSky	0.5501	94	14	3	3
Albany	AmericaEast	0.5498	95	14	4	1
NorthwesternU	BigTen	0.5496	96	12	5	2
MontanaU	BigSky	0.5496	97	13	4	5
SouthFlorida	American	0.5481	98	9	5	4
AlabamaU	SEC	0.5474	99	8	6	5
CalPoly	BigWest	0.5472	100	9	7	4
Siena	MetroAtlantic	0.5471	101	12	4	4
OregonU	PacTwelve	0.5466	102	6	11	3
UTEP	ConferenceUSA	0.5431	103	11	3	7
TennesseeU	SEC	0.5431	104	7	10	2
FloridaGulfCoast	AtlanticSun	0.5429	105	15	4	0
CentralMichigan	MidAmerican	0.5421	106	14	4	3
Hartford	AmericaEast	0.5413	107	13	3	3
Syracuse	ACC	0.5402	108	7	8	4
DePaul	BigEast	0.5394	109	9	8	2
Dayton	AtlanticTen	0.5392	110	16	4	1
CalStateFullerton	BigWest	0.5384	111	11	7	1
IowaU	BigTen	0.5371	112	11	6	2
LouisianaLafayette	SunBelt	0.5351	113	14	4	2
FloridaAtlantic	ConferenceUSA	0.5347	114	11	8	2
Fordham	AtlanticTen	0.5347	115	10	8	2
NewHampshireU	AmericaEast	0.5310	116	10	6	3
SanJoseState	MountainWest	0.5310	117	9	7	5
Lipscomb	AtlanticSun	0.5309	118	13	4	2
ArkansasU	SEC	0.5301	119	6	11	2
GeorgeMason	AtlanticTen	0.5287	120	12	7	2
UMKC	WAC	0.5284	121	13	4	4
SacramentoState	BigSky	0.5276	122	13	2	3
Bucknell	Patriot	0.5276	123	10	5	4
Monmouth	MetroAtlantic	0.5272	124	13	3	4
EastCarolina	American	0.5271	125	8	9	3
MissouriU	SEC	0.5266	126	8	7	4
WesternMichigan	MidAmerican	0.5265	127	12	4	4
Morehead	OhioValley	0.5253	128	13	6	3
CalStateNorthridge	BigWest	0.5253	129	9	7	4
TexasU	BigTwelve	0.5249	130	6	10	3
OregonState	PacTwelve	0.5221	131	5	11	4
NCState	ACC	0.5176	132	5	12	1
Cornell	Ivy	0.5175	133	5	8	3
NorthDakotaState	Summit	0.5161	134	12	5	2
SMU	American	0.5147	135	6	11	2
Troy	SunBelt	0.5142	136	9	8	4
Denver	Summit	0.5137	137	11	5	4
LaSalle	AtlanticTen	0.5137	138	7	7	5
MiamiFL	ACC	0.5129	139	7	9	2
UALR	SunBelt	0.5127	140	10	9	1
HawaiiU	BigWest	0.5122	141	9	6	2
EasternWashington	BigSky	0.5113	142	13	4	3
AbileneChristian	Southland	0.5107	143	10	8	4
UNCGreensboro	Southern	0.5098	144	8	10	3
EastTennesseeState	Southern	0.5097	145	13	4	3
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.5092	146	6	11	1
DelawareU	Colonial	0.5091	147	6	11	2
IllinoisU	BigTen	0.5076	148	8	10	1
StFrancis	Northeast	0.5076	149	14	6	1
SELouisiana	Southland	0.5056	150	12	4	4
Charlotte	ConferenceUSA	0.5056	151	8	8	3
FresnoState	MountainWest	0.5048	152	9	6	5
Marshall	ConferenceUSA	0.5037	153	6	7	5
NorthernIllinois	MidAmerican	0.5030	154	7	9	3
OldDominion	ConferenceUSA	0.5030	155	5	9	4
CentralArkansas	Southland	0.5030	156	13	5	3
Elon	Colonial	0.4992	157	9	9	1
KansasU	BigTwelve	0.4974	158	4	13	1
Longwood	BigSouth	0.4965	159	9	8	3
MurrayState	OhioValley	0.4962	160	8	5	5
Campbell	BigSouth	0.4962	161	12	4	3
UCIrvine	BigWest	0.4959	162	10	7	3
GrandCanyon	WAC	0.4951	163	9	8	3
Manhattan	MetroAtlantic	0.4950	164	10	8	1
NewMexicoU	MountainWest	0.4945	165	9	7	4
TexasState	SunBelt	0.4945	166	9	6	4
SanDiegoU	WestCoast	0.4945	167	5	11	3
AustinPeay	OhioValley	0.4936	168	10	8	2
Lafayette	Patriot	0.4929	169	8	5	5
Mercer	Southern	0.4924	170	8	7	4
SanFrancisco	WestCoast	0.4921	171	7	11	1
MississippiState	SEC	0.4915	172	4	14	0
TennesseeMartin	OhioValley	0.4915	173	9	7	3
Radford	BigSouth	0.4913	174	8	5	4
UtahValley	WAC	0.4894	175	10	8	2
AppalachianState	SunBelt	0.4893	176	8	10	1
Duquesne	AtlanticTen	0.4887	177	9	9	2
Richmond	AtlanticTen	0.4886	178	9	10	1
HoustonBaptist	Southland	0.4870	179	10	8	1
IllinoisChicago	Horizon	0.4866	180	11	5	4
Gonzaga	WestCoast	0.4864	181	5	10	3
Purdue	BigTen	0.4863	182	3	14	1
MichiganState	BigTen	0.4860	183	6	11	1
NorthernKentucky	Horizon	0.4855	184	12	6	1
ColoradoCollege	MountainWest	0.4843	185	8	8	3
Creighton	BigEast	0.4843	186	7	8	3
IndianaU	BigTen	0.4838	187	2	13	4
MiddleTennessee	ConferenceUSA	0.4836	188	6	9	2
OralRoberts	Summit	0.4824	189	9	9	2
LoyolaMarymount	WestCoast	0.4815	190	4	14	1
LouisianaTech	ConferenceUSA	0.4811	191	12	6	2
BoiseState	MountainWest	0.4795	192	5	9	6
Towson	Colonial	0.4779	193	2	13	4
Howard	Southwestern	0.4779	194	12	4	5
Villanova	BigEast	0.4750	195	4	13	1
PennsylvaniaU	Ivy	0.4727	196	8	6	2
LoyolaChicago	MissouriValley	0.4727	197	7	9	3
Evansville	MissouriValley	0.4718	198	5	10	4
Houston	American	0.4702	199	7	8	1
NorthernColorado	BigSky	0.4699	200	10	9	1
CentralConnecticut	Northeast	0.4698	201	9	11	1
VermontU	AmericaEast	0.4692	202	5	8	6
StMarys	WestCoast	0.4691	203	2	13	5
Belmont	OhioValley	0.4689	204	5	9	4
BowlingGreen	MidAmerican	0.4684	205	8	9	3
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.4681	206	5	10	1
Temple	American	0.4680	207	7	12	0
LoyolaMD	Patriot	0.4672	208	6	8	4
JacksonvilleU	AtlanticSun	0.4666	209	6	8	2
StLouis	AtlanticTen	0.4665	210	8	9	2
SouthDakotaState	Summit	0.4659	211	9	9	1
TennesseeTech	OhioValley	0.4636	212	9	10	1
StonyBrook	AmericaEast	0.4619	213	6	10	4
Quinnipiac	MetroAtlantic	0.4619	214	9	7	2
KennesawState	AtlanticSun	0.4612	215	10	6	3
MiamiOH	MidAmerican	0.4592	216	5	12	2
Marist	MetroAtlantic	0.4587	217	10	7	2
JacksonState	Southwestern	0.4555	218	11	6	3
SouthernMississippi	ConferenceUSA	0.4541	219	6	10	0
McNeeseState	Southland	0.4539	220	9	8	1
Valparaiso	Horizon	0.4522	221	10	10	0
MassachusettsU	AtlanticTen	0.4511	222	5	12	1
Citadel	Southern	0.4507	223	9	8	2
UMBC	AmericaEast	0.4504	224	6	10	2
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.4503	225	1	15	2
Drexel	Colonial	0.4503	226	5	12	1
ColoradoU	PacTwelve	0.4494	227	3	16	1
IllinoisState	MissouriValley	0.4493	228	11	9	1
GeorgiaState	SunBelt	0.4490	229	4	10	3
CollegeofCharleston	Colonial	0.4486	230	4	11	4
MarylandU	BigTen	0.4484	231	2	15	2
MissouriState	MissouriValley	0.4462	232	5	10	3
SouthernUtah	BigSky	0.4461	233	5	10	2
UCRiverside	BigWest	0.4458	234	2	12	5
GeorgiaSouthern	SunBelt	0.4452	235	4	10	4
RhodeIslandU	AtlanticTen	0.4447	236	3	11	5
SetonHall	BigEast	0.4446	237	3	15	0
Pacific	WestCoast	0.4445	238	1	14	2
Toledo	MidAmerican	0.4444	239	6	11	2
UTSA	ConferenceUSA	0.4437	240	4	14	1
FIU	ConferenceUSA	0.4423	241	2	10	5
AlabamaState	Southwestern	0.4417	242	10	6	4
MaineU	AmericaEast	0.4391	243	6	7	2
CharlestonSouthern	BigSouth	0.4382	244	6	9	3
WeberState	BigSky	0.4359	245	5	10	2
ArkansasState	SunBelt	0.4357	246	2	11	3
CalStateBakersfield	WAC	0.4344	247	5	13	2
IUPUI	Summit	0.4340	248	7	9	3
Oakland	Horizon	0.4339	249	7	10	1
NevadaU	MountainWest	0.4328	250	4	12	2
Xavier	BigEast	0.4314	251	3	13	3
Wofford	Southern	0.4307	252	8	11	0
Davidson	AtlanticTen	0.4290	253	3	13	3
EasternKentucky	OhioValley	0.4290	254	6	9	2
NJIT	AtlanticSun	0.4290	255	6	10	2
YoungstownState	Horizon	0.4288	256	7	8	3
NorthwesternState	Southland	0.4274	257	5	10	2
UAB	ConferenceUSA	0.4271	258	3	13	1
UCDavis	BigWest	0.4250	259	1	13	4
Akron	MidAmerican	0.4247	260	5	12	2
Fairfield	MetroAtlantic	0.4220	261	5	13	0
PortlandState	BigSky	0.4215	262	5	11	2
EasternMichigan	MidAmerican	0.4215	263	3	14	2
Army	Patriot	0.4202	264	3	13	2
UNLV	MountainWest	0.4194	265	5	13	2
VMI	Southern	0.4173	266	7	13	0
LouisianaMonroe	SunBelt	0.4148	267	2	14	2
UNCAsheville	BigSouth	0.4147	268	8	12	0
MississippiValley	Southwestern	0.4141	269	7	7	3
AirForce	MountainWest	0.4140	270	5	10	3
OhioU	MidAmerican	0.4130	271	2	14	2
NorthFlorida	AtlanticSun	0.4101	272	3	10	3
American	Patriot	0.4098	273	3	13	3
SouthDakotaU	Summit	0.4085	274	5	13	1
IncarnateWord	Southland	0.4084	275	3	12	2
Lehigh	Patriot	0.4078	276	4	12	1
VCU	AtlanticTen	0.4072	277	3	15	1
LongIsland	Northeast	0.4059	278	5	12	1
WrightState	Horizon	0.4045	279	3	14	1
SamHoustonState	Southland	0.4045	280	5	12	2
JacksonvilleState	OhioValley	0.4003	281	2	15	3
IndianaState	MissouriValley	0.4002	282	5	12	1
ColoradoState	MountainWest	0.3967	283	3	15	1
Binghamton	AmericaEast	0.3961	284	2	12	4
Bryant	Northeast	0.3945	285	6	8	4
Stetson	AtlanticSun	0.3941	286	2	11	3
Chattanooga	Southern	0.3931	287	2	16	1
StBonaventure	AtlanticTen	0.3922	288	1	14	4
KansasState	Independent	0.3919	289	2	12	2
ClevelandState	Horizon	0.3917	290	6	11	0
Lamar	Southland	0.3897	291	2	14	3
UNI	MissouriValley	0.3896	292	4	9	3
Presbyterian	BigSouth	0.3874	293	2	11	3
Wagner	Northeast	0.3872	294	7	11	1
NorthDakotaU	BigSky	0.3872	295	3	13	2
SIUEdwardsville	OhioValley	0.3872	296	3	12	3
Winthrop	BigSouth	0.3865	297	2	13	3
TexasSouthern	Southwestern	0.3857	298	3	9	3
TexasRGV	WAC	0.3834	299	7	8	2
Iona	MetroAtlantic	0.3820	300	2	14	2
GardnerWebb	BigSouth	0.3818	301	2	11	6
SacredHeart	Northeast	0.3793	302	5	9	4
UNOmaha	Summit	0.3787	303	4	14	1
Canisius	MetroAtlantic	0.3770	304	3	13	0
UMassLowell	AmericaEast	0.3769	305	2	12	3
NichollsState	Southland	0.3764	306	4	11	1
HolyCross	Patriot	0.3764	307	2	15	0
ArkansasPineBluff	Southwestern	0.3750	308	3	11	1
WesternCarolina	Southern	0.3749	309	2	17	0
PrairieViewA&M	Southwestern	0.3720	310	4	10	2
IdahoState	BigSky	0.3720	311	2	17	0
Niagara	MetroAtlantic	0.3689	312	4	11	2
AlabamaA&M	Southwestern	0.3687	313	4	12	3
FairleighDickinson	Northeast	0.3680	314	1	16	3
IPFW	Summit	0.3569	315	2	15	1
NorthernArizona	BigSky	0.3566	316	2	16	1
Detroit	Horizon	0.3555	317	2	13	1
MountStMary	Northeast	0.3479	318	3	12	3
SouthCarolinaState	Independent	0.3388	319	2	12	1
NewMexicoState	WAC	0.3384	320	1	16	1
StPeters	MetroAtlantic	0.3373	321	2	13	1
WesternIllinois	Summit	0.3370	322	1	15	1
USCUpstate	AtlanticSun	0.3345	323	0	15	2
GreenBay	Horizon	0.3315	324	0	15	1
AlcornState	Southwestern	0.3300	325	2	9	0
TexasCorpusChristi	Southland	0.3291	326	0	17	1
EasternIllinois	OhioValley	0.3183	327	1	16	0
RobertMorris	Northeast	0.3147	328	0	15	3
ChicagoState	WAC	0.3125	329	0	15	1
Hampton	Independent	0.2924	330	2	5	1
SouthernU	Southwestern	0.2894	331	0	14	1
DelawareState	Independent	0.2875	332	1	15	0
Grambling	Southwestern	0.2708	333	0	10	1