2016 Season Simulation: Week 4 Update

This Week 4 Update to the 2016 Season Simulation is a hybrid of (1) the actual results of the games played from the beginning of the season through Sunday, September 11 and (2) my simulated results for the balance of the season (including simulated conference tournaments).  Starting with this week's Update since conference games now have begun, each week I will update my simulated conference tournament brackets to incorporate the results of conference games actually played.

Team	Conference	Adjusted RPI	ARPI Rank	Total Wins	Total Losses	Total Ties
WestVirginiaU	BigTwelve	0.7402	1	20	0	1
Stanford	PacTwelve	0.7313	2	17	0	2
FloridaU	SEC	0.7148	3	19	1	0
Duke	ACC	0.7046	4	16	2	3
Clemson	ACC	0.6955	5	17	2	2
SouthernCalifornia	PacTwelve	0.6773	6	16	2	1
Georgetown	BigEast	0.6770	7	18	2	0
ConnecticutU	American	0.6749	8	20	2	0
BYU	WestCoast	0.6704	9	18	1	0
UCLA	PacTwelve	0.6703	10	12	4	3
Auburn	SEC	0.6649	11	14	5	2
FloridaState	ACC	0.6630	12	15	3	1
WisconsinU	BigTen	0.6599	13	16	2	4
BostonCollege	ACC	0.6525	14	15	3	3
OklahomaState	BigTwelve	0.6476	15	16	4	2
Memphis	American	0.6472	16	14	4	3
TexasA&M	SEC	0.6471	17	16	3	1
Rice	ConferenceUSA	0.6443	18	16	2	1
PennState	BigTen	0.6419	19	13	5	2
VirginiaU	ACC	0.6400	20	13	4	2
TexasTech	BigTwelve	0.6347	21	13	4	3
LongBeachState	BigWest	0.6337	22	15	4	1
MinnesotaU	BigTen	0.6327	23	18	3	1
Rutgers	BigTen	0.6302	24	13	3	4
Princeton	Ivy	0.6283	25	14	2	1
VirginiaTech	ACC	0.6280	26	13	5	2
SouthCarolinaU	SEC	0.6257	27	13	5	1
CaliforniaU	PacTwelve	0.6245	28	15	4	1
Harvard	Ivy	0.6244	29	12	3	1
WashingtonState	PacTwelve	0.6242	30	12	6	1
KentState	MidAmerican	0.6237	31	18	1	0
OklahomaU	BigTwelve	0.6204	32	11	7	3
OhioState	BigTen	0.6203	33	12	6	2
UCF	American	0.6195	34	13	5	2
NorthCarolinaU	ACC	0.6192	35	10	5	3
LSU	SEC	0.6169	36	14	6	1
SouthAlabama	SunBelt	0.6169	37	18	2	1
ArizonaU	PacTwelve	0.6167	38	11	5	3
Pepperdine	WestCoast	0.6130	39	14	3	2
SantaClara	WestCoast	0.6114	40	10	6	3
Northeastern	Colonial	0.6101	41	15	4	2
Samford	Southern	0.6055	42	13	2	5
SanDiegoState	MountainWest	0.6018	43	15	4	1
GeorgeWashington	AtlanticTen	0.5982	44	16	3	3
GeorgiaU	SEC	0.5962	45	8	9	2
WashingtonU	PacTwelve	0.5959	46	11	7	2
NebraskaU	BigTen	0.5948	47	11	8	1
KentuckyU	SEC	0.5941	48	8	7	5
SoutheastMissouriState	OhioValley	0.5938	49	17	1	1
Drake	MissouriValley	0.5927	50	17	0	3
StJosephs	AtlanticTen	0.5890	51	15	1	5
Tulsa	American	0.5888	52	12	8	1
PortlandU	WestCoast	0.5851	53	13	4	2
BallState	MidAmerican	0.5839	54	17	4	1
WakeForest	ACC	0.5827	55	12	7	0
UCSantaBarbara	BigWest	0.5819	56	17	2	2
Marquette	BigEast	0.5808	57	11	7	3
WesternKentucky	ConferenceUSA	0.5760	58	14	5	2
UtahU	PacTwelve	0.5758	59	9	9	1
IowaState	BigTwelve	0.5752	60	8	9	2
StJohns	BigEast	0.5748	61	12	4	4
TCU	BigTwelve	0.5727	62	11	5	2
Baylor	BigTwelve	0.5717	63	11	6	2
HighPoint	BigSouth	0.5685	64	15	5	1
NotreDame	ACC	0.5684	65	8	7	3
WyomingU	MountainWest	0.5672	66	15	4	2
Hofstra	Colonial	0.5669	67	12	5	3
Providence	BigEast	0.5633	68	10	9	1
Seattle	WAC	0.5631	69	13	4	3
Buffalo	MidAmerican	0.5631	70	12	5	4
BostonU	Patriot	0.5626	71	11	8	2
IdahoU	BigSky	0.5621	72	15	2	3
UtahState	MountainWest	0.5619	73	12	6	3
Cincinnati	American	0.5612	74	10	7	3
Brown	Ivy	0.5612	75	10	3	3
AlabamaU	SEC	0.5608	76	9	7	4
StephenFAustin	Southland	0.5601	77	16	2	0
Butler	BigEast	0.5593	78	16	4	1
Liberty	BigSouth	0.5574	79	15	6	0
CoastalCarolina	SunBelt	0.5556	80	13	5	3
Rider	MetroAtlantic	0.5554	81	14	2	3
Furman	Southern	0.5550	82	12	1	5
ArizonaState	PacTwelve	0.5547	83	7	9	3
William&Mary	Colonial	0.5542	84	13	4	3
UNCWilmington	Colonial	0.5541	85	11	4	5
Milwaukee	Horizon	0.5528	86	15	3	2
Columbia	Ivy	0.5523	87	8	4	5
NorthTexas	ConferenceUSA	0.5515	88	14	3	4
OregonU	PacTwelve	0.5500	89	7	11	2
FloridaGulfCoast	AtlanticSun	0.5491	90	15	4	0
MississippiU	SEC	0.5465	91	7	10	3
CalPoly	BigWest	0.5461	92	9	7	4
CentralMichigan	MidAmerican	0.5460	93	14	4	3
MichiganU	BigTen	0.5458	94	7	4	7
SouthFlorida	American	0.5457	95	9	5	4
NorthwesternU	BigTen	0.5454	96	12	5	2
Louisville	ACC	0.5436	97	8	8	2
Fordham	AtlanticTen	0.5436	98	11	8	1
JamesMadison	Colonial	0.5435	99	11	8	1
Albany	AmericaEast	0.5420	100	13	5	1
MissouriU	SEC	0.5410	101	9	6	4
Dayton	AtlanticTen	0.5408	102	16	5	0
Yale	Ivy	0.5406	103	7	5	4
WesternMichigan	MidAmerican	0.5400	104	13	4	3
ArkansasU	SEC	0.5389	105	7	10	2
TennesseeU	SEC	0.5382	106	7	11	1
Colgate	Patriot	0.5362	107	11	5	4
UTEP	ConferenceUSA	0.5361	108	11	5	6
Syracuse	ACC	0.5361	109	7	8	4
GeorgeMason	AtlanticTen	0.5358	110	12	7	2
SanJoseState	MountainWest	0.5356	111	9	6	6
MontanaU	BigSky	0.5356	112	12	5	5
Hartford	AmericaEast	0.5350	113	13	4	2
Morehead	OhioValley	0.5338	114	13	6	3
NewHampshireU	AmericaEast	0.5319	115	10	6	3
CalStateNorthridge	BigWest	0.5309	116	8	6	6
TexasU	BigTwelve	0.5304	117	6	10	3
DePaul	BigEast	0.5298	118	8	9	2
NCState	ACC	0.5298	119	6	11	1
Lipscomb	AtlanticSun	0.5287	120	13	4	2
CalStateFullerton	BigWest	0.5275	121	10	8	1
IowaU	BigTen	0.5267	122	10	7	2
Navy	Patriot	0.5267	123	12	8	2
LouisianaLafayette	SunBelt	0.5220	124	13	5	2
OregonState	PacTwelve	0.5216	125	5	11	4
FloridaAtlantic	ConferenceUSA	0.5213	126	10	7	3
KansasU	BigTwelve	0.5209	127	5	12	1
Cornell	Ivy	0.5209	128	5	8	3
Siena	MetroAtlantic	0.5198	129	10	5	5
Troy	SunBelt	0.5196	130	9	8	4
EasternWashington	BigSky	0.5188	131	14	4	2
Bucknell	Patriot	0.5175	132	10	5	4
SMU	American	0.5173	133	7	11	1
UMKC	WAC	0.5171	134	12	5	4
LaSalle	AtlanticTen	0.5160	135	7	7	5
UALR	SunBelt	0.5148	136	10	9	1
NorthDakotaState	Summit	0.5144	137	12	5	2
Monmouth	MetroAtlantic	0.5128	138	13	4	3
SanDiegoU	WestCoast	0.5118	139	6	10	3
HawaiiU	BigWest	0.5112	140	9	7	1
SanFrancisco	WestCoast	0.5109	141	8	10	1
UNCGreensboro	Southern	0.5108	142	8	10	3
EastCarolina	American	0.5105	143	7	10	3
FresnoState	MountainWest	0.5081	144	9	6	5
NorthernIllinois	MidAmerican	0.5075	145	7	9	3
SacramentoState	BigSky	0.5074	146	11	3	4
Gonzaga	WestCoast	0.5068	147	6	9	3
MississippiState	SEC	0.5067	148	5	13	0
Denver	Summit	0.5057	149	11	6	3
EastTennesseeState	Southern	0.5049	150	12	4	4
MurrayState	OhioValley	0.5048	151	8	5	5
Charlotte	ConferenceUSA	0.5044	152	8	8	3
UCIrvine	BigWest	0.5040	153	11	7	2
AustinPeay	OhioValley	0.5033	154	10	8	2
LoyolaMarymount	WestCoast	0.5024	155	5	13	1
AbileneChristian	Southland	0.5017	156	10	8	4
MiamiFL	ACC	0.5013	157	6	10	2
OldDominion	ConferenceUSA	0.5009	158	5	9	4
NewMexicoU	MountainWest	0.5002	159	9	7	4
StFrancis	Northeast	0.4989	160	13	7	1
Duquesne	AtlanticTen	0.4985	161	9	8	3
TennesseeMartin	OhioValley	0.4981	162	9	7	3
Richmond	AtlanticTen	0.4970	163	9	9	2
ColoradoCollege	MountainWest	0.4969	164	9	8	2
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.4965	165	5	12	1
IllinoisU	BigTen	0.4959	166	7	11	1
GrandCanyon	WAC	0.4946	167	10	9	1
VermontU	AmericaEast	0.4943	168	7	6	6
DelawareU	Colonial	0.4938	169	5	12	2
AppalachianState	SunBelt	0.4938	170	8	10	1
Campbell	BigSouth	0.4938	171	12	5	3
Elon	Colonial	0.4934	172	8	9	2
TexasState	SunBelt	0.4925	173	9	7	3
Mercer	Southern	0.4912	174	8	7	4
IndianaU	BigTen	0.4912	175	3	13	3
PennsylvaniaU	Ivy	0.4898	176	9	5	2
Marshall	ConferenceUSA	0.4894	177	5	7	6
Manhattan	MetroAtlantic	0.4889	178	10	8	1
CentralArkansas	Southland	0.4880	179	12	6	3
TennesseeTech	OhioValley	0.4860	180	10	8	2
SELouisiana	Southland	0.4859	181	11	5	4
CentralConnecticut	Northeast	0.4853	182	10	10	1
Purdue	BigTen	0.4851	183	3	13	1
UtahValley	WAC	0.4837	184	10	9	1
Towson	Colonial	0.4837	185	3	13	3
Creighton	BigEast	0.4832	186	7	8	3
BoiseState	MountainWest	0.4832	187	5	9	6
NorthernKentucky	Horizon	0.4827	188	12	7	1
Lafayette	Patriot	0.4827	189	8	6	4
StMarys	WestCoast	0.4827	190	3	13	4
OralRoberts	Summit	0.4803	191	9	9	2
LouisianaTech	ConferenceUSA	0.4795	192	12	6	2
BowlingGreen	MidAmerican	0.4793	193	9	9	2
HoustonBaptist	Southland	0.4773	194	10	8	1
StLouis	AtlanticTen	0.4773	195	9	9	1
MiamiOH	MidAmerican	0.4766	196	6	11	2
Longwood	BigSouth	0.4765	197	8	9	3
Radford	BigSouth	0.4750	198	7	5	4
Belmont	OhioValley	0.4742	199	5	9	4
Howard	Southwestern	0.4731	200	12	4	5
Evansville	MissouriValley	0.4728	201	5	11	3
ColoradoU	PacTwelve	0.4720	202	5	14	1
NorthernColorado	BigSky	0.4707	203	10	9	1
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.4690	204	5	10	1
MichiganState	BigTen	0.4684	205	5	12	1
SetonHall	BigEast	0.4681	206	4	13	0
GeorgiaState	SunBelt	0.4679	207	5	9	3
LoyolaChicago	MissouriValley	0.4675	208	7	10	2
MiddleTennessee	ConferenceUSA	0.4664	209	5	10	2
JacksonvilleU	AtlanticSun	0.4662	210	6	8	2
StonyBrook	AmericaEast	0.4654	211	6	10	4
SouthDakotaState	Summit	0.4653	212	9	9	1
Houston	American	0.4647	213	7	8	1
Villanova	BigEast	0.4642	214	3	14	1
GeorgiaSouthern	SunBelt	0.4633	215	5	10	3
IllinoisChicago	Horizon	0.4622	216	10	6	3
Toledo	MidAmerican	0.4622	217	7	10	2
KennesawState	AtlanticSun	0.4611	218	10	7	2
Xavier	BigEast	0.4581	219	5	11	3
Pacific	WestCoast	0.4580	220	1	13	3
LoyolaMD	Patriot	0.4573	221	5	8	4
MassachusettsU	AtlanticTen	0.4572	222	4	12	1
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.4563	223	1	15	2
MissouriState	MissouriValley	0.4557	224	6	9	3
Quinnipiac	MetroAtlantic	0.4548	225	9	7	2
UMBC	AmericaEast	0.4540	226	6	10	2
FIU	ConferenceUSA	0.4535	227	3	9	5
UCRiverside	BigWest	0.4526	228	3	12	4
CollegeofCharleston	Colonial	0.4525	229	5	11	3
Temple	American	0.4521	230	6	13	0
Valparaiso	Horizon	0.4510	231	10	10	0
RhodeIslandU	AtlanticTen	0.4507	232	3	11	5
IllinoisState	MissouriValley	0.4484	233	11	9	1
Drexel	Colonial	0.4480	234	5	12	1
Citadel	Southern	0.4477	235	9	9	1
MaineU	AmericaEast	0.4455	236	6	7	2
CharlestonSouthern	BigSouth	0.4437	237	6	9	3
JacksonState	Southwestern	0.4435	238	10	6	3
SouthernUtah	BigSky	0.4431	239	5	10	2
NevadaU	MountainWest	0.4428	240	5	12	1
MarylandU	BigTen	0.4421	241	2	15	2
AlabamaState	Southwestern	0.4419	242	9	6	4
EasternKentucky	OhioValley	0.4399	243	6	9	2
UTSA	ConferenceUSA	0.4397	244	4	14	1
EasternMichigan	MidAmerican	0.4396	245	4	13	2
IUPUI	Summit	0.4369	246	7	9	3
ArkansasState	SunBelt	0.4363	247	2	11	3
SouthernMississippi	ConferenceUSA	0.4362	248	5	10	0
UCDavis	BigWest	0.4358	249	2	13	3
Davidson	AtlanticTen	0.4349	250	4	13	2
Marist	MetroAtlantic	0.4341	251	9	9	1
CalStateBakersfield	WAC	0.4319	252	5	13	2
Army	Patriot	0.4300	253	4	12	2
Wofford	Southern	0.4299	254	8	11	0
McNeeseState	Southland	0.4298	255	8	9	1
AirForce	MountainWest	0.4277	256	6	10	2
Akron	MidAmerican	0.4272	257	5	13	1
LouisianaMonroe	SunBelt	0.4271	258	3	13	2
VCU	AtlanticTen	0.4262	259	4	14	1
Binghamton	AmericaEast	0.4254	260	4	10	4
PortlandState	BigSky	0.4243	261	6	12	0
JacksonvilleState	OhioValley	0.4232	262	3	13	3
UNLV	MountainWest	0.4224	263	5	13	2
Oakland	Horizon	0.4221	264	6	10	2
NJIT	AtlanticSun	0.4221	265	6	10	2
OhioU	MidAmerican	0.4216	266	2	14	2
WeberState	BigSky	0.4215	267	4	11	2
UAB	ConferenceUSA	0.4178	268	3	13	1
NorthwesternState	Southland	0.4174	269	5	10	2
Lehigh	Patriot	0.4158	270	5	11	1
NorthFlorida	AtlanticSun	0.4152	271	4	10	2
Fairfield	MetroAtlantic	0.4141	272	5	13	0
UNCAsheville	BigSouth	0.4117	273	8	12	0
MississippiValley	Southwestern	0.4114	274	7	7	3
SouthDakotaU	Summit	0.4107	275	5	13	1
LongIsland	Northeast	0.4061	276	5	12	1
Chattanooga	Southern	0.4057	277	3	15	1
VMI	Southern	0.4056	278	6	14	0
American	Patriot	0.4042	279	3	13	3
YoungstownState	Horizon	0.4039	280	6	10	2
StBonaventure	AtlanticTen	0.4027	281	2	14	3
IndianaState	MissouriValley	0.4025	282	5	12	1
ColoradoState	MountainWest	0.4012	283	3	15	1
WrightState	Horizon	0.4001	284	3	14	1
Bryant	Northeast	0.3989	285	6	8	4
IncarnateWord	Southland	0.3987	286	3	12	2
Winthrop	BigSouth	0.3957	287	3	12	3
SIUEdwardsville	OhioValley	0.3930	288	3	12	3
Stetson	AtlanticSun	0.3930	289	2	11	3
Wagner	Northeast	0.3907	290	7	11	1
KansasState	Independent	0.3904	291	2	12	2
TexasRGV	WAC	0.3876	292	8	8	1
UMassLowell	AmericaEast	0.3853	293	2	12	3
ClevelandState	Horizon	0.3851	294	6	11	0
SamHoustonState	Southland	0.3838	295	4	13	2
GardnerWebb	BigSouth	0.3836	296	2	11	6
SacredHeart	Northeast	0.3826	297	5	9	4
TexasSouthern	Southwestern	0.3820	298	3	9	3
Lamar	Southland	0.3809	299	2	14	3
UNOmaha	Summit	0.3802	300	4	14	1
NorthernArizona	BigSky	0.3790	301	3	14	2
UNI	MissouriValley	0.3761	302	3	10	3
WesternCarolina	Southern	0.3761	303	2	17	0
NorthDakotaU	BigSky	0.3758	304	2	13	3
Presbyterian	BigSouth	0.3744	305	2	12	2
FairleighDickinson	Northeast	0.3734	306	1	15	3
HolyCross	Patriot	0.3726	307	2	15	0
Iona	MetroAtlantic	0.3710	308	2	14	2
ArkansasPineBluff	Southwestern	0.3704	309	3	11	1
PrairieViewA&M	Southwestern	0.3698	310	4	10	2
IdahoState	BigSky	0.3695	311	2	17	0
Canisius	MetroAtlantic	0.3692	312	3	13	0
NichollsState	Southland	0.3684	313	4	11	1
AlabamaA&M	Southwestern	0.3681	314	4	12	3
MountStMary	Northeast	0.3610	315	4	11	3
Niagara	MetroAtlantic	0.3604	316	3	11	2
IPFW	Summit	0.3599	317	2	15	1
NewMexicoState	WAC	0.3580	318	2	14	2
Detroit	Horizon	0.3501	319	2	13	1
WesternIllinois	Summit	0.3462	320	1	14	2
EasternIllinois	OhioValley	0.3420	321	2	15	0
SouthCarolinaState	Independent	0.3390	322	2	12	1
USCUpstate	AtlanticSun	0.3321	323	0	15	2
GreenBay	Horizon	0.3278	324	0	15	1
StPeters	MetroAtlantic	0.3260	325	2	13	1
AlcornState	Southwestern	0.3247	326	2	9	0
RobertMorris	Northeast	0.3203	327	1	15	2
TexasCorpusChristi	Southland	0.3149	328	0	18	0
ChicagoState	WAC	0.3098	329	0	15	1
DelawareState	Independent	0.2923	330	1	14	0
Hampton	Independent	0.2912	331	2	5	1
SouthernU	Southwestern	0.2821	332	0	14	1
Grambling	Southwestern	0.2675	333	0	10	1