EVALUATION OF TEAMS FOR NCAA TOURNAMENT PURPOSES BASED ON ACTUAL RESULTS OF GAMES PLAYED THROUGH SEPTEMBER 18 AND SIMULATED RESULTS OF FUTURE GAMES

 Below is information related to teams that my simulation identifies as candidates for #1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds and for at large selections for the NCAA Tournament based on the actual results of games played through September 18 and simulated results of games not yet played.  I also have included simulated conference champion automatic qualifiers.

For each seed level and for at large selections, I am showing the entire candidate pool based on Committee decisions since 2007.  For example, since 2007 all #1 seeds have come from teams ranked #1 through 7 by the RPI.  Thus the #1 seed candidate pool is teams #1 through 7 in the simulation end-of-season rankings.

For automatic qualifiers, the teams are those the simulation produces as conference tournament champions for conferences that have tournaments and those it produces as conference regular season champions for conferences that do not have tournaments.

I previously have described my standards-based system for determining what the Committee will decide if it follows its historic decision-making patterns.  In each of the seed and at large selection tables below, I will show how many "yes" and "no" standards the candidates meet for that particular Committee decision.  Where a team meets both "yes" and "no" standards, it means the simulation is producing a profile the Committee has not seen in the past.  I anticipate that by the end of the season, there will be fewer of these cases than you will see currently.

All of the reservations I set out in the previous post apply here.  In addition, the standards my system uses come from Committee decision-making patterns during the overtime era.  It is possible these patterns will change, with the elimination of overtimes.  I will do a study to see whether the standards should change to reflect the no overtime change, but I have not done it yet.

#1 Seeds (Candidate Pool ## 1-7)

ARPI Rank for Formation Team for Formation 1 Seed Total No 1 Seed Total 2 UCLA 41 0 1 AlabamaU 21 0 4 NotreDame 14 0 3 Rutgers 9 1 6 NorthCarolinaU 7 0 5 VirginiaU 5 5 7 Harvard 1 7 #2 Seeds (Candidate Pool ## 1-14) ARPI Rank for Formation Team for Formation 2 Seed Total No 2 Seed Total 2 UCLA 57 0 1 AlabamaU 34 0 4 NotreDame 30 0 6 NorthCarolinaU 27 0 5 VirginiaU 24 0 3 Rutgers 21 0 7 Harvard 16 0 9 ArizonaState 15 10 8 StLouis 15 23 11 Clemson 10 0 10 Duke 9 0 12 SouthCarolinaU 7 0 13 OhioState 2 10 14 PortlandU 0 11 #3 Seeds (Candidate Pool ## 1-23) ARPI Rank for Formation Team for Formation 3 Seed Total No 3 Seed Total 2 UCLA 64 0 1 AlabamaU 36 0 4 NotreDame 35 0 6 NorthCarolinaU 32 0 5 VirginiaU 29 0 3 Rutgers 26 0 7 Harvard 18 0 8 StLouis 16 11 11 Clemson 15 0 9 ArizonaState 15 1 10 Duke 12 0 12 SouthCarolinaU 9 0 13 OhioState 2 0 14 PortlandU 0 0 17 ArkansasU 0 0 18 MississippiU 0 0 19 TCU 0 1 16 BYU 0 2 20 NCState 0 10 23 WashingtonState 0 12 15 Georgetown 0 15 22 PennState 0 15 21 Xavier 0 56 #4 Seeds (Candidate Pool ## 1-26) ARPI Rank for Formation Team for Formation 4 Seed Total No Seed Total 2 UCLA 72 0 4 NotreDame 50 0 5 VirginiaU 45 0 6 NorthCarolinaU 44 0 1 AlabamaU 43 0 3 Rutgers 39 0 7 Harvard 35 0 8 StLouis 27 1 9 ArizonaState 23 0 11 Clemson 20 0 10 Duke 19 0 12 SouthCarolinaU 19 0 14 PortlandU 9 0 13 OhioState 8 0 15 Georgetown 2 0 17 ArkansasU 0 0 18 MississippiU 0 0 19 TCU 0 0 16 BYU 0 0 25 NorthwesternU 0 1 20 NCState 0 2 23 WashingtonState 0 3 22 PennState 0 5 24 LSU 0 6 26 SouthAlabama 0 15 21 Xavier 0 30 At Large ARPI Rank for Formation Team for Formation At Large In Total At Large Out Total 2 UCLA 104 0 4 NotreDame 100 0 5 VirginiaU 91 0 6 NorthCarolinaU 91 0 1 AlabamaU 89 0 12 SouthCarolinaU 88 0 10 Duke 87 0 11 Clemson 85 0 3 Rutgers 84 0 7 Harvard 75 0 8 StLouis 73 0 9 ArizonaState 68 0 14 PortlandU 49 0 17 ArkansasU 47 0 13 OhioState 45 0 18 MississippiU 44 0 23 WashingtonState 43 0 29 Lamar 43 0 19 TCU 40 0 20 NCState 40 0 52 EasternKentucky 40 41 15 Georgetown 35 0 39 SouthDakotaState 32 11 36 Buffalo 32 17 16 BYU 31 0 24 LSU 31 0 22 PennState 27 0 33 TexasA&M 27 0 27 UtahValley 24 0 40 FloridaState 24 0 21 Xavier 23 1 25 NorthwesternU 21 0 28 Pepperdine 20 0 26 SouthAlabama 19 0 30 GrandCanyon 18 0 35 VCU 17 0 31 WisconsinU 13 0 48 UtahU 12 0 34 UCF 11 0 38 Pittsburgh 11 8 41 WakeForest 7 6 55 WashingtonU 6 0 37 CalStateFullerton 5 14 32 OklahomaState 4 0 53 GeorgiaU 2 0 46 Drexel 2 13 54 BoiseState 2 33 51 Fairfield 2 37 43 Memphis 1 0 47 SMU 1 0 50 MississippiState 1 0 57 CaliforniaU 1 1 42 Brown 1 8 45 JamesMadison 0 1 49 Northeastern 0 6 56 MichiganState 0 11 44 UAB 0 38 Automatic Qualifiers Automatic Qualifier ARPI Rank for Formation Team for Formation AQ 2 UCLA AQ 3 Rutgers AQ 6 NorthCarolinaU AQ 7 Harvard AQ 8 StLouis AQ 12 SouthCarolinaU AQ 14 PortlandU AQ 19 TCU AQ 21 Xavier AQ 26 SouthAlabama AQ 29 Lamar AQ 30 GrandCanyon AQ 36 Buffalo AQ 37 CalStateFullerton AQ 39 SouthDakotaState AQ 47 SMU AQ 49 Northeastern AQ 52 EasternKentucky AQ 54 BoiseState AQ 63 Quinnipiac AQ 67 FloridaAtlantic AQ 68 Campbell AQ 70 Milwaukee AQ 72 Chattanooga AQ 79 UMassLowell AQ 100 MontanaU AQ 102 SIUEdwardsville AQ 106 MissouriState AQ 149 Merrimack AQ 175 Grambling AQ 186 Navy