EVALUATION OF TEAMS FOR NCAA TOURNAMENT PURPOSES BASED ON ACTUAL RESULTS OF GAMES PLAYED THROUGH SEPTEMBER 4 AND SIMULATED RESULTS OF FUTURE GAMES

For NCAA Tournament bracket projection, this week I am going to do something different that usual, that I think will be more useful.  I simply am going to put the current simulated Top 60 teams (plus the automatic qualifiers outside that group) in order, based on how many of my system’s "yes" and "no" at large selection standards they will meet at the end of the season, according to my simulation.  Later in the season, I will go back to showing seeds and at large selections, but at this early stage of the season it appears to me that using at large selection standards is likely to be closer to how the Committee will seed the teams.

Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank	Team	At Large In Total	At Large Out Total
AQ	1	Duke	109	0
0	6	NorthCarolinaU	97	0
0	11	UCLA	94	0
0	2	FloridaState	93	0
0	5	VirginiaU	92	0
AQ	9	Stanford	82	0
0	8	SouthernCalifornia	81	0
AQ	3	ArkansasU	79	0
AQ	4	Rutgers	77	0
AQ	7	Brown	75	0
0	19	Auburn	69	0
0	15	PennState	68	0
0	17	MichiganU	68	0
0	10	TennesseeU	67	0
0	14	SouthCarolinaU	67	0
0	13	Princeton	62	0
AQ	12	TCU	60	0
AQ	24	Pepperdine	54	0
0	16	NotreDame	53	0
0	26	Pittsburgh	47	0
0	27	Vanderbilt	47	0
0	30	StLouis	45	1
0	22	Harvard	44	0
0	20	Clemson	42	0
AQ	229	PrairieViewA&M	40	74
0	25	WashingtonState	39	0
AQ	102	Niagara	38	63
0	21	Georgetown	37	0
0	28	TexasA&M	37	0
0	23	LSU	35	0
0	33	VirginiaTech	35	0
AQ	18	Xavier	33	0
0	36	Purdue	32	0
0	41	WakeForest	30	0
0	37	NCState	21	0
0	39	WisconsinU	21	0
AQ	32	Hofstra	20	0
0	34	MississippiU	18	0
0	35	TexasU	16	0
AQ	29	GrandCanyon	16	22
0	31	BYU	15	0
0	38	SMU	13	0
AQ	47	NorthwesternState	9	19
AQ	42	LoyolaChicago	7	0
0	48	SouthDakotaState	4	18
AQ	40	Samford	4	19
0	44	ColoradoU	2	0
AQ	51	Milwaukee	2	31
AQ	61	BowlingGreen	2	48
AQ	65	SouthernMississippi	2	49
AQ	80	NewMexicoU	2	75
AQ	82	NorthTexas	2	75
AQ	79	Campbell	2	78
AQ	140	Drake	2	96
AQ	113	SIUEdwardsville	2	98
AQ	120	CentralConnecticut	2	98
AQ	121	MontanaU	2	101
0	52	ArizonaState	1	1
0	46	OregonU	0	0
0	49	UNCWilmington	0	0
0	50	Butler	0	0
0	45	SantaClara	0	1
0	55	WestVirginiaU	0	1
0	43	VCU	0	2
0	58	Memphis	0	7
0	54	OhioState	0	8
0	53	Providence	0	15
0	60	CaliforniaU	0	15
0	56	MichiganState	0	17
0	57	OklahomaState	0	21
0	59	JamesMadison	0	35
AQ	81	SouthFlorida	0	61
AQ	110	Denver	0	81
AQ	76	Liberty	0	83
AQ	105	LongBeachState	0	89
AQ	114	BostonU	0	92
AQ	130	UMassLowell	0	97