SIMULATED RPI RANKS WITH ACTUAL GAMES THROUGH AUGUST 21

Below are my system’s simulated end-of-season RPI ranks using actual game results through August 21 and simulated results for games not yet played.

As a caution in addition to all the others when considering the simulated rankings:

During the opening weekend, there were more than twice the number of ties as in the past.  This almost certainly is due to the elimination of overtime games.  The simulation system assigns ties as game results when the location-adjusted rating difference between opponents is 0.0133 or less.  This number comes from a statistical analysis of games played since 2007.  If the rating difference is below that threshold, then the better rated team’s likelihood of winning is below 50%, which means that the result for that team is more likely to be a tie or loss than a win.  Given that, the system compromises and treats the game as a tie.  With elimination of overtimes, however, it is possible that the 0.0133 threshold now is too low.  It would be desirable to do a new analysis to see if that is the case, but that would mean identifying all the games that went to extra time over many years and doing a new set of calculations.  I may do that eventually, but it will take a lot of time and effort, so I may not get it done during the current season.

So with those cautions, here are the simulated end-of-season rankings for this week:

Duke	1
FloridaState	2
NorthCarolinaU	3
VirginiaU	4
SouthernCalifornia	5
ArkansasU	6
Rutgers	7
Brown	8
Xavier	9
Stanford	10
MichiganU	11
TennesseeU	12
Georgetown	13
Clemson	14
Princeton	15
TCU	16
NotreDame	17
Pepperdine	18
SouthCarolinaU	19
WashingtonState	20
Purdue	21
PennState	22
UCLA	23
NCState	24
Pittsburgh	25
BYU	26
Auburn	27
Hofstra	28
VirginiaTech	29
Vanderbilt	30
Butler	31
Harvard	32
LSU	33
TexasA&M	34
SMU	35
WakeForest	36
Samford	37
MississippiU	38
StLouis	39
SantaClara	40
OregonU	41
WisconsinU	42
ArizonaState	43
UNCWilmington	44
GrandCanyon	45
Providence	46
UCF	47
SouthDakotaState	48
VCU	49
ColoradoU	50
LoyolaChicago	51
BowlingGreen	52
TexasU	53
OklahomaState	54
NebraskaU	55
SouthFlorida	56
Memphis	57
OhioState	58
NorthwesternState	59
MichiganState	60
CaliforniaU	61
WashingtonU	62
SouthAlabama	63
Liberty	64
Louisville	65
StJohns	66
Milwaukee	67
OldDominion	68
Gonzaga	69
GeorgiaU	70
NewMexicoU	71
Columbia	72
Quinnipiac	73
NorthwesternU	74
JamesMadison	75
Campbell	76
Northeastern	77
KentState	78
WestVirginiaU	79
WesternCarolina	80
Rice	81
NorthTexas	82
IndianaU	83
SouthernMississippi	84
Lipscomb	85
Lamar	86
Monmouth	87
Dayton	88
ArkansasState	89
BostonCollege	90
Buffalo	91
Navy	92
UtahU	93
UtahState	94
VermontU	95
LongBeachState	96
SanFrancisco	97
Houston	98
Niagara	99
Denver	100
TennesseeTech	101
TexasTech	102
EastCarolina	103
PennsylvaniaU	104
StMarys	105
OregonState	106
Furman	107
Fairfield	108
BostonU	109
MinnesotaU	110
Dartmouth	111
UtahValley	112
MassachusettsU	113
Elon	114
Toledo	115
Seattle	116
IowaU	117
Oakland	118
PortlandU	119
CalPoly	120
Creighton	121
NorthFlorida	122
McNeeseState	123
Mercer	124
Albany	125
UMassLowell	126
Marquette	127
MississippiState	128
MontanaU	129
UCIrvine	130
SIUEdwardsville	131
WesternKentucky	132
Drake	133
AlabamaU	134
SouthDakotaU	135
OhioU	136
Towson	137
CaliforniaBaptist	138
UCSantaBarbara	139
Cincinnati	140
CentralArkansas	141
RhodeIslandU	142
CentralConnecticut	143
OklahomaU	144
KentuckyU	145
CalStateFullerton	146
UTSA	147
SanDiegoState	148
NorthernColorado	149
Radford	150
ConnecticutU	151
ArizonaU	152
Hartford	153
CentralMichigan	154
UAB	155
NewHampshireU	156
FresnoState	157
FloridaGulfCoast	158
Binghamton	159
MiamiFL	160
GeorgiaState	161
LouisianaMonroe	162
HighPoint	163
KansasU	164
MurrayState	165
MissouriU	166
BoiseState	167
DePaul	168
FloridaU	169
Evansville	170
GeorgiaSouthern	171
UNCGreensboro	172
Drexel	173
WeberState	174
William&Mary	175
Bucknell	176
MiamiOH	177
Syracuse	178
LaSalle	179
StephenFAustin	180
SELouisiana	181
IllinoisU	182
NewMexicoState	183
GreenBay	184
NorthernKentucky	185
FairleighDickinson	186
Baylor	187
DelawareU	188
Pacific	189
Longwood	190
WesternIllinois	191
TexasState	192
UNOmaha	193
SetonHall	194
FloridaAtlantic	195
GeorgeMason	196
TennesseeMartin	197
BallState	198
UALR	199
MarylandU	200
SanDiegoU	201
LoyolaMD	202
LouisianaTech	203
Tulsa	204
ColoradoState	205
Richmond	206
IncarnateWord	207
Siena	208
Charlotte	209
EasternKentucky	210
KennesawState	211
AirForce	212
KansasState	213
Citadel	214
MiddleTennessee	215
ColoradoCollege	216
WesternMichigan	217
MissouriState	218
Villanova	219
Grambling	220
Colgate	221
IowaState	222
IUPUI	223
Valparaiso	224
CollegeofCharleston	225
StonyBrook	226
PrairieViewA&M	227
AbileneChristian	228
Yale	229
UCDavis	230
UtahTech	231
UNLV	232
Cornell	233
EastTennesseeState	234
IdahoU	235
Iona	236
Temple	237
JacksonvilleState	238
Marist	239
HoustonBaptist	240
NorthernArizona	241
Chattanooga	242
Lehigh	243
NJIT	244
Troy	245
LouisianaLafayette	246
WrightState	247
UCSanDiego	248
StBonaventure	249
SamHoustonState	250
MaineU	251
SacredHeart	252
IllinoisState	253
Duquesne	254
Army	255
UCRiverside	256
IPFW	257
ClevelandState	258
CalStateNorthridge	259
Howard	260
AppalachianState	261
UNI	262
StJosephs	263
SanJoseState	264
IndianaState	265
SoutheastMissouriState	266
TexasCommerce	267
Marshall	268
Stetson	269
CoastalCarolina	270
HawaiiU	271
GeorgeWashington	272
UMKC	273
Manhattan	274
Bryant	275
CharlestonSouthern	276
Wofford	277
NorthernIllinois	278
AustinPeay	279
JacksonvilleU	280
LoyolaMarymount	281
Belmont	282
TexasCorpusChristi	283
OralRoberts	284
Morehead	285
Davidson	286
American	287
UNCAsheville	288
TexasSouthern	289
EasternMichigan	290
Merrimack	291
Bellarmine	292
WyomingU	293
UTEP	294
EasternWashington	295
Queens	296
Fordham	297
SouthernUtah	298
MountStMary	299
Detroit	300
Winthrop	301
Akron	302
UMBC	303
Rider	304
CalStateBakersfield	305
TexasRGV	306
SacramentoState	307
Tarleton	308
GardnerWebb	309
RobertMorris	310
Lafayette	311
EasternIllinois	312
PortlandState	313
NevadaU	314
NorthDakotaU	315
USCUpstate	316
NorthDakotaState	317
NorthAlabama	318
IllinoisChicago	319
IdahoState	320
StThomas	321
StFrancisBrooklyn	322
FIU	323
Stonehill	324
AlabamaA&M	325
Presbyterian	326
YoungstownState	327
NichollsState	328
Lindenwood	329
HolyCross	330
AlabamaState	331
Canisius	332
StFrancis	333
Hampton	334
VMI	335
JacksonState	336
SouthernIndiana	337
StPeters	338
LongIsland	339
Wagner	340
SouthernU	341
SIUCarbondale	342
ArkansasPineBluff	343
MississippiValley	344
ChicagoState	345
DelawareState	346
SouthCarolinaState	347
AlcornState	348