SIMULATED NCAA TOURNAMENT AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS, AT LARGE SELECTIONS, AND SEEDS USING ACTUAL GAME RESULTS THROUGH AUGUST 21 AND SIMULATED RESULTS FOR REMAINING GAMES

Here are simulated NCAA Tournament Automatic Qualifiers, At Large Selections, and Seeds using the actual results of games through August 21 and simulated results for games not yet played including conference tournaments.  Although some teams were upset during the opening weekend, those results do not affect simulated future results.  That will not occur until later in the season, when I will change from using assigned trended historic ratings to having the current RPI as the basis for assigning results to games not yet played.  In addition, as mentioned in my previous post, the threshold I use for assigning ties as results (location-adjusted rating difference of 0.0133 or less), may be too low due to the elimination of overtime games.

Thus as always, take these early simulations with a big grain of salt.

Key:

1  #1 seed

2  #2 seed

3  #3 seed

4  #4 seed

5  Unseeded automatic qualifier

6  Unseeded at large selection

7  Top 60 team not getting an at large selection

Additional potential seeds are at the bottom of the table. 

NCAA Seed or Selection	Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank for Formation	Team for Formation
1	AQ	1	Duke
1	0	2	FloridaState
1	0	3	NorthCarolinaU
1	0	5	SouthernCalifornia
2	0	4	VirginiaU
2	AQ	6	ArkansasU
2	AQ	7	Rutgers
2	AQ	10	Stanford
3	AQ	8	Brown
3	0	11	MichiganU
3	0	14	Clemson
3	0	17	NotreDame
4	AQ	9	Xavier
4	0	12	TennesseeU
4	AQ	16	TCU
4	AQ	18	Pepperdine
5	AQ	28	Hofstra
5	AQ	37	Samford
5	AQ	45	GrandCanyon
5	AQ	51	LoyolaChicago
5	AQ	52	BowlingGreen
5	AQ	56	SouthFlorida
5	AQ	59	NorthwesternState
5	AQ	64	Liberty
5	AQ	67	Milwaukee
5	AQ	71	NewMexicoU
5	AQ	76	Campbell
5	AQ	82	NorthTexas
5	AQ	84	SouthernMississippi
5	AQ	96	LongBeachState
5	AQ	99	Niagara
5	AQ	100	Denver
5	AQ	109	BostonU
5	AQ	126	UMassLowell
5	AQ	129	MontanaU
5	AQ	131	SIUEdwardsville
5	AQ	133	Drake
5	AQ	143	CentralConnecticut
5	AQ	227	PrairieViewA&M
6	0	13	Georgetown
6	0	15	Princeton
6	0	19	SouthCarolinaU
6	0	20	WashingtonState
6	0	21	Purdue
6	0	22	PennState
6	0	23	UCLA
6	0	24	NCState
6	0	25	Pittsburgh
6	0	26	BYU
6	0	27	Auburn
6	0	29	VirginiaTech
6	0	30	Vanderbilt
6	0	31	Butler
6	0	33	LSU
6	0	34	TexasA&M
6	0	35	SMU
6	0	36	WakeForest
6	0	38	MississippiU
6	0	39	StLouis
6	0	40	SantaClara
6	0	41	OregonU
6	0	42	WisconsinU
6	0	47	UCF
6	0	50	ColoradoU
7	0	32	Harvard
7	0	43	ArizonaState
7	0	44	UNCWilmington
7	0	46	Providence
7	0	48	SouthDakotaState
7	0	49	VCU
7	0	53	TexasU
7	0	54	OklahomaState
7	0	55	NebraskaU
7	0	57	Memphis
7	0	58	OhioState
7	0	60	MichiganState

Potential other seeds:

1  Virginia

2  Michigan, Brown

3  Xavier, Tennessee, Georgetown, Princeton, South Carolina, Purdue

4  Princeton, Georgetown, South Carolina, Washington State, Purdue, UCLA, Penn State