For those really interested in the RPI and how it works, it's important to start out knowing that the Women's Soccer Committee really only should be using the RPI at the end of the season immediately before the NCAA Tournament. The Committee uses it earlier, as it has its bi-weekly meetings, but hopefully the Committee members know that the RPI at the time of those meetings has significant limitations.
Here's a way to think about the RPI at the current stage of the season. Let's say a team I'm interested in has played 8 games so far and that each of its opponents has played 8 games. In terms of effective weight in determining a team's rating, the team's winning percentage and their opponents' average winning percentage account for about 90% of the team's rating. Thus the competition among 64 teams (our team's opponents' opponents) plus 8 teams (our team's opponents) plus 1 team (our team) account for about 90% of our team's ratings. Those 73 teams are about 25% of all the Division I teams. So, about 25% of all teams play a significant role in our team's rating and about 75% of all teams don't. Each team has its own group that contribute to its rating,but essentially there are a bunch of different playing pools and a team's rating reflects only where it fits within its pool. But, the ratings all are put together as though a team from one pool has a rating that fits properly in relation to the rating of a team from another pool. This really isn't true, as the pools aren't equal.
As the season shifts from the non-conference competition to the conference competition, the in-conference competition over the weeks does a better and better job of producing ratings of the conference teams that reflect where they really stand in relation to each other. This feeds back into the system and, to some extent, gets the non-conference pools of teams in a more correct relation to each other. Does it get them into a truly correct relation to each other? No. It would take in the vicinity of a 28 to 30 game season to overcome the unbalanced nature of the non-conference playing pools, whereas the average team plays about 19 games.
If the season were turned around and the conference season preceded the non-conference season, you might see this better. At the end of the conference season, each conference's teams' ratings would be essentially the same as each other conference teams' ratings. The non-conference season then would put the different conferences' teams in a more correct relation to each other. Again, however, there wouldn't be enough games to do get the teams into a truly correct relation to each other. And in fact, I have run statistical analyses that prove this: stronger conferences' teams' ratings are not high enough to match with actual game results and weaker conferences' teams' ratings are not low enough.
So, what you're seeing in this week's RPI report, with the conference season just having begun, is the very early stage of corrections to the ratings from the non-conference season.
With that little lecture, here are the ARPI ranks generated from games played through Sunday, September 17:
Team | Conference | ARPI Rank 2015 BPs NC |
SouthCarolinaU | SEC | 1 |
Stanford | PacTwelve | 2 |
TexasU | BigTwelve | 3 |
UCF | American | 4 |
NorthCarolinaU | ACC | 5 |
Duke | ACC | 6 |
Rutgers | BigTen | 7 |
Princeton | Ivy | 8 |
FloridaU | SEC | 9 |
WestVirginiaU | BigTwelve | 10 |
TennesseeU | SEC | 11 |
Wisconsin | BigTen | 12 |
NCState | ACC | 13 |
WakeForest | ACC | 14 |
LSU | SEC | 15 |
WashingtonU | PacTwelve | 16 |
Clemson | ACC | 17 |
VirginiaU | ACC | 18 |
UCLA | PacTwelve | 19 |
Cincinnati | American | 20 |
NotreDame | ACC | 21 |
Purdue | BigTen | 22 |
LoyolaMarymount | WestCoast | 23 |
StLouis | AtlanticTen | 24 |
Penn State | BigTen | 25 |
Marquette | BigEast | 26 |
Michigan | BigTen | 27 |
Pepperdine | WestCoast | 28 |
Rice | ConferenceUSA | 29 |
MississippiU | SEC | 30 |
VirginiaTech | ACC | 31 |
Georgetown | BigEast | 32 |
Memphis | American | 33 |
CaliforniaU | PacTwelve | 34 |
KansasU | BigTwelve | 35 |
AlabamaU | SEC | 36 |
Butler | BigEast | 37 |
SMU | American | 38 |
UtahU | PacTwelve | 39 |
Baylor | BigTwelve | 40 |
TexasA&M | SEC | 41 |
IndianaU | BigTen | 42 |
SantaClara | WestCoast | 43 |
WashingtonState | PacTwelve | 44 |
Vanderbilt | SEC | 45 |
FloridaGulfCoast | AtlanticSun | 46 |
MississippiState | SEC | 47 |
OhioState | BigTen | 48 |
FloridaState | ACC | 49 |
LongBeachState | BigWest | 50 |
Maryland | BigTen | 51 |
MontanaU | BigSky | 52 |
NorthwesternU | BigTen | 53 |
ColoradoU | PacTwelve | 54 |
BostonCollege | ACC | 55 |
MurrayState | OhioValley | 56 |
MinnesotaU | BigTen | 57 |
Oregon | PacTwelve | 58 |
CalStateNorthridge | BigWest | 59 |
SouthFlorida | American | 60 |
EastCarolina | American | 61 |
Auburn | SEC | 62 |
Monmouth | MetroAtlantic | 63 |
NebraskaU | BigTen | 64 |
SouthernCalifornia | PacTwelve | 65 |
CollegeofCharleston | Colonial | 66 |
Drexel | Colonial | 67 |
CalStateFullerton | BigWest | 68 |
Syracuse | ACC | 69 |
Milwaukee | Horizon | 70 |
Navy | Patriot | 71 |
Gonzaga | WestCoast | 72 |
ArizonaU | PacTwelve | 73 |
Northeastern | Colonial | 74 |
Providence | BigEast | 75 |
BYU | WestCoast | 76 |
Harvard | Ivy | 77 |
StJosephs | AtlanticTen | 78 |
GeorgiaU | SEC | 79 |
OklahomaState | BigTwelve | 80 |
UNLV | MountainWest | 81 |
UCIrvine | BigWest | 82 |
Charlotte | ConferenceUSA | 83 |
NorthFlorida | AtlanticSun | 84 |
KentuckyU | SEC | 85 |
MichiganState | BigTen | 86 |
Colgate | Patriot | 87 |
CoastalCarolina | SunBelt | 88 |
Yale | Ivy | 89 |
Villanova | BigEast | 90 |
NewHampshireU | AmericaEast | 91 |
You | AtlanticTen | 92 |
Louisville | ACC | 93 |
SacramentoState | BigSky | 94 |
UCSantaBarbara | BigWest | 95 |
Houston | American | 96 |
SanFrancisco | WestCoast | 97 |
Belmont | OhioValley | 98 |
ArkansasU | SEC | 99 |
UtahState | MountainWest | 100 |
TCU | BigTwelve | 101 |
NewMexicoU | MountainWest | 102 |
UNCWilmington | Colonial | 103 |
Pittsburgh | ACC | 104 |
Bryant | Northeast | 105 |
GeorgiaSouthern | SunBelt | 106 |
FresnoState | MountainWest | 107 |
IowaU | BigTen | 108 |
LoyolaChicago | MissouriValley | 109 |
UAB | ConferenceUSA | 110 |
William&Mary | Colonial | 111 |
NorthernColorado | BigSky | 112 |
TexasTech | BigTwelve | 113 |
Hofstra | Colonial | 114 |
Elon | Colonial | 115 |
Brown | Ivy | 116 |
Lehigh | Patriot | 117 |
Connecticut | American | 118 |
Kent State | MidAmerican | 119 |
DelawareU | Colonial | 120 |
Old Domain | ConferenceUSA | 121 |
MiamiFL | ACC | 122 |
GeorgeWashington | AtlanticTen | 123 |
UALR | SunBelt | 124 |
DePaul | BigEast | 125 |
StJohns | BigEast | 126 |
Lamar | Southland | 127 |
AustinPeay | OhioValley | 128 |
JamesMadison | Colonial | 129 |
Radford | BigSouth | 130 |
RhodeIslandU | AtlanticTen | 131 |
UNI | MissouriValley | 132 |
Furman | Southern | 133 |
ArizonaState | PacTwelve | 134 |
MissouriU | SEC | 135 |
TexasRGV | WAC | 136 |
WesternMichigan | MidAmerican | 137 |
IndianaState | MissouriValley | 138 |
SouthAlabama | SunBelt | 139 |
CentralMichigan | MidAmerican | 140 |
NorthTexas | ConferenceUSA | 141 |
CalPoly | BigWest | 142 |
ArkansasState | SunBelt | 143 |
Xavier | BigEast | 144 |
LaSalle | AtlanticTen | 145 |
Dartmouth | Ivy | 146 |
IUPUI | Horizon | 147 |
KennesawState | AtlanticSun | 148 |
Drake | MissouriValley | 149 |
Liberty | BigSouth | 150 |
Binghamton | AmericaEast | 151 |
Boston | Patriot | 152 |
Seattle | WAC | 153 |
UNCGreensboro | Southern | 154 |
Dayton | AtlanticTen | 155 |
LouisianaTech | ConferenceUSA | 156 |
SanJoseState | MountainWest | 157 |
NorthernIllinois | MidAmerican | 158 |
Valparaiso | MissouriValley | 159 |
WesternKentucky | ConferenceUSA | 160 |
PortlandU | WestCoast | 161 |
ColoradoCollege | MountainWest | 162 |
LouisianaLafayette | SunBelt | 163 |
StephenFAustin | Southland | 164 |
Stetson | AtlanticSun | 165 |
TennesseeTech | OhioValley | 166 |
IllinoisState | MissouriValley | 167 |
CentralConnecticut | Northeast | 168 |
Quinnipiac | MetroAtlantic | 169 |
GeorgeMason | AtlanticTen | 170 |
SouthDakotaState | Summit | 171 |
SIUEdwardsville | OhioValley | 172 |
Wyoming | MountainWest | 173 |
UNCAsheville | BigSouth | 174 |
KansasState | BigTwelve | 175 |
Fairfield | MetroAtlantic | 176 |
SanDiegoState | MountainWest | 177 |
IowaState | BigTwelve | 178 |
NewMexicoState | WAC | 179 |
Towson | Colonial | 180 |
Bucknell | Patriot | 181 |
BowlingGreen | MidAmerican | 182 |
WrightState | Horizon | 183 |
Samford | Southern | 184 |
MiddleTennessee | ConferenceUSA | 185 |
ClevelandState | Horizon | 186 |
IdahoU | BigSky | 187 |
OregonState | PacTwelve | 188 |
EasternWashington | BigSky | 189 |
NorthernKentucky | Horizon | 190 |
OklahomaU | BigTwelve | 191 |
NorthernArizona | BigSky | 192 |
Toledo | MidAmerican | 193 |
Cornell | Ivy | 194 |
HighPoint | BigSouth | 195 |
WesternCarolina | Southern | 196 |
StFrancis | Northeast | 197 |
MassachusettsU | AtlanticTen | 198 |
SoutheastMissouriState | OhioValley | 199 |
Columbia | Ivy | 200 |
BoiseState | MountainWest | 201 |
Lipscomb | AtlanticSun | 202 |
ColoradoState | MountainWest | 203 |
TexasCorpusChristi | Southland | 204 |
Troy | SunBelt | 205 |
HawaiiU | BigWest | 206 |
Duquesne | AtlanticTen | 207 |
Pacific | WestCoast | 208 |
UMassLowell | AmericaEast | 209 |
FloridaAtlantic | ConferenceUSA | 210 |
AirForce | MountainWest | 211 |
CalStateBakersfield | WAC | 212 |
UTSA | ConferenceUSA | 213 |
EasternIllinois | OhioValley | 214 |
Longwood | BigSouth | 215 |
Tulsa | American | 216 |
EasternKentucky | OhioValley | 217 |
Richmond | AtlanticTen | 218 |
SanDiegoU | WestCoast | 219 |
StonyBrook | AmericaEast | 220 |
VermontU | AmericaEast | 221 |
StMarys | WestCoast | 222 |
Mercer | Southern | 223 |
TexasState | SunBelt | 224 |
MissouriState | MissouriValley | 225 |
IllinoisU | BigTen | 226 |
Niagara | MetroAtlantic | 227 |
UNOmaha | Summit | 228 |
SouthernMississippi | ConferenceUSA | 229 |
McNeeseState | Southland | 230 |
SamHoustonState | Southland | 231 |
Denver | Summit | 232 |
MississippiValley | Southwestern | 233 |
CharlestonSouthern | BigSouth | 234 |
EastTennesseeState | Southern | 235 |
UCDavis | BigWest | 236 |
Lafayette | Patriot | 237 |
Temple | American | 238 |
Davidson | AtlanticTen | 239 |
OhioU | MidAmerican | 240 |
EasternMichigan | MidAmerican | 241 |
Creighton | BigEast | 242 |
UTEP | ConferenceUSA | 243 |
Winthrop | BigSouth | 244 |
AlcornState | Southwestern | 245 |
NJIT | AtlanticSun | 246 |
SacredHeart | Northeast | 247 |
Siena | MetroAtlantic | 248 |
JacksonvilleState | OhioValley | 249 |
utahvalley | WAC | 250 |
Army | Patriot | 251 |
IncarnateWord | Southland | 252 |
Buffalo | MidAmerican | 253 |
MaineU | AmericaEast | 254 |
SouthDakotaU | Summit | 255 |
Presbyterian | BigSouth | 256 |
FIU | ConferenceUSA | 257 |
Manhattan | MetroAtlantic | 258 |
BallState | MidAmerican | 259 |
CentralArkansas | Southland | 260 |
Chattanooga | Southern | 261 |
Canisius | MetroAtlantic | 262 |
USCUpstate | AtlanticSun | 263 |
Wofford | Southern | 264 |
Detroit | Horizon | 265 |
Akron | MidAmerican | 266 |
PennsylvaniaU | Ivy | 267 |
TennesseeMartin | OhioValley | 268 |
Marist | MetroAtlantic | 269 |
Citadel | Southern | 270 |
TexasSouthern | Southwestern | 271 |
MKC | WAC | 272 |
Marshall | ConferenceUSA | 273 |
SouthernUtah | BigSky | 274 |
NorthDakotaU | BigSky | 275 |
FairleighDickinson | Northeast | 276 |
UCRiverside | BigWest | 277 |
GrandCanyon | WAC | 278 |
Campbell | BigSouth | 279 |
MountStMary | Northeast | 280 |
HolyCross | Patriot | 281 |
JacksonvilleU | AtlanticSun | 282 |
NorthwesternState | Southland | 283 |
Fordham | AtlanticTen | 284 |
Evansville | MissouriValley | 285 |
AbileneChristian | Southland | 286 |
LongIsland | Northeast | 287 |
GeorgiaState | SunBelt | 288 |
OralRoberts | Summit | 289 |
AlabamaState | Southwestern | 290 |
Albany | AmericaEast | 291 |
Morehead | OhioValley | 292 |
GardnerWebb | BigSouth | 293 |
AppalachianState | SunBelt | 294 |
Weber State | BigSky | 295 |
IdahoState | BigSky | 296 |
RobertMorris | Northeast | 297 |
American | Patriot | 298 |
UMBC | AmericaEast | 299 |
Howard | Southwestern | 300 |
Wagner | Northeast | 301 |
LoyolaMD | Patriot | 302 |
YoungstownState | Horizon | 303 |
StBonaventure | AtlanticTen | 304 |
Grambling | Southwestern | 305 |
NorthDakotaState | Summit | 306 |
Oakland | Horizon | 307 |
MiamiOH | MidAmerican | 308 |
Hartford | AmericaEast | 309 |
SetonHall | BigEast | 310 |
HoustonBaptist | Southland | 311 |
IllinoisChicago | Horizon | 312 |
VMI | Southern | 313 |
PrairieViewA&M | Southwestern | 314 |
WesternIllinois | Summit | 315 |
Iona | MetroAtlantic | 316 |
PortlandState | BigSky | 317 |
ArkansasPineBluff | Southwestern | 318 |
LouisianaMonroe | SunBelt | 319 |
Rider | MetroAtlantic | 320 |
NichollsState | Southland | 321 |
GreenBay | Horizon | 322 |
IPFW | Summit | 323 |
NevadaU | MountainWest | 324 |
DelawareState | Independent | 325 |
StPeters | MetroAtlantic | 326 |
SouthCarolinaState | Independent | 327 |
SELouisiana | Southland | 328 |
SouthernU | Southwestern | 329 |
JacksonState | Southwestern | 330 |
AlabamaA&M | Southwestern | 331 |
Hampton | Independent | 332 |
ChicagoState | WAC | 333 |
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