Something will stand out to those of you familiar with teams' typical rankings over the years. There are a lot more mid-major teams relatively high in the rankings and a lot fewer major conference teams relatively high in the rankings than is normal for end-of-season rankings. There's a reason for this, and it illustrates the RPI's most significant flaw. The problem is that the system I use assumes that all teams will win, lose, or tie their games in accord with their and their opponents' ratings, adjusted for home field advantage. But in fact, that won't happen. Instead, teams from major conferences on average will win or tie more games than the ratings say they should, and teams from mid-major conferences on average will lose or tie more games than the ratings say they should. So, when the teams actually have played their games, the teams from major conferences on average will have better records than the simulation shows and teams from mid-majors will have poorer records. As the season progresses and, weekly, I substitute actual game results for simulated game results, this problem gradually will correct itself.
With that warning as background, here are the simulated rankings for all teams as of the end of the season:
Team | ARPI Rank |
FloridaState | 1 |
NorthCarolinaU | 2 |
WestVirginiaU | 3 |
Stanford | 4 |
FloridaU | 5 |
VirginiaU | 6 |
UCLA | 7 |
NotreDame | 8 |
PennState | 9 |
SouthCarolinaU | 10 |
Marquette | 11 |
BostonCollege | 12 |
Rutgers | 13 |
TexasA&M | 14 |
UCF | 15 |
BostonU | 16 |
ConnecticutU | 17 |
SouthernCalifornia | 18 |
VirginiaTech | 19 |
SantaClara | 20 |
CaliforniaU | 21 |
SouthAlabama | 22 |
Auburn | 23 |
Northeastern | 24 |
Georgetown | 25 |
OhioState | 26 |
Baylor | 27 |
Duke | 28 |
Princeton | 29 |
WisconsinU | 30 |
OklahomaState | 31 |
TennesseeU | 32 |
TexasTech | 33 |
Troy | 34 |
SanDiegoState | 35 |
Memphis | 36 |
BYU | 37 |
NorthTexas | 38 |
Harvard | 39 |
LaSalle | 40 |
WashingtonState | 41 |
LongBeachState | 42 |
William&Mary | 43 |
StephenFAustin | 44 |
Rice | 45 |
Samford | 46 |
Buffalo | 47 |
WakeForest | 48 |
Hofstra | 49 |
Liberty | 50 |
MurrayState | 51 |
IllinoisU | 52 |
Pepperdine | 53 |
Dayton | 54 |
FloridaGulfCoast | 55 |
Clemson | 56 |
PortlandU | 57 |
KansasU | 58 |
SouthFlorida | 59 |
MiamiOH | 60 |
UTEP | 61 |
Bucknell | 62 |
MinnesotaU | 63 |
Monmouth | 64 |
WashingtonU | 65 |
MichiganU | 66 |
ColoradoCollege | 67 |
TexasState | 68 |
Providence | 69 |
TexasU | 70 |
KentuckyU | 71 |
MissouriU | 72 |
IllinoisState | 73 |
UNLV | 74 |
WesternKentucky | 75 |
VCU | 76 |
WesternMichigan | 77 |
UtahU | 78 |
OklahomaU | 79 |
MississippiU | 80 |
WrightState | 81 |
UtahState | 82 |
HighPoint | 83 |
Dartmouth | 84 |
NebraskaU | 85 |
LSU | 86 |
JamesMadison | 87 |
AbileneChristian | 88 |
CentralMichigan | 89 |
Brown | 90 |
Furman | 91 |
Louisville | 92 |
CalStateFullerton | 93 |
StJohns | 94 |
FairleighDickinson | 95 |
MiamiFL | 96 |
OregonState | 97 |
Tulsa | 98 |
UCIrvine | 99 |
ArkansasU | 100 |
AppalachianState | 101 |
Charlotte | 102 |
Navy | 103 |
UNCGreensboro | 104 |
Marshall | 105 |
Vanderbilt | 106 |
TennesseeMartin | 107 |
ColoradoU | 108 |
GeorgiaU | 109 |
Syracuse | 110 |
ArizonaU | 111 |
Denver | 112 |
MiddleTennessee | 113 |
SanDiegoU | 114 |
DePaul | 115 |
GeorgiaState | 116 |
Colgate | 117 |
UtahValley | 118 |
UNCWilmington | 119 |
JacksonvilleU | 120 |
CalStateNorthridge | 121 |
Milwaukee | 122 |
StLouis | 123 |
Albany | 124 |
GeorgeMason | 125 |
EastTennesseeState | 126 |
SELouisiana | 127 |
SanJoseState | 128 |
OralRoberts | 129 |
Mercer | 130 |
MassachusettsU | 131 |
BallState | 132 |
Campbell | 133 |
TCU | 134 |
SamHoustonState | 135 |
Hartford | 136 |
Richmond | 137 |
UALR | 138 |
MissouriState | 139 |
MichiganState | 140 |
Seattle | 141 |
EastCarolina | 142 |
OldDominion | 143 |
ArizonaState | 144 |
NewMexicoU | 145 |
NorthwesternU | 146 |
PennsylvaniaU | 147 |
AlabamaU | 148 |
Siena | 149 |
Columbia | 150 |
EasternWashington | 151 |
Longwood | 152 |
IowaState | 153 |
SoutheastMissouriState | 154 |
Fordham | 155 |
DelawareU | 156 |
Yale | 157 |
Cincinnati | 158 |
WyomingU | 159 |
KentState | 160 |
SMU | 161 |
NCState | 162 |
IdahoU | 163 |
GeorgeWashington | 164 |
Radford | 165 |
StJosephs | 166 |
OregonU | 167 |
StFrancis | 168 |
CoastalCarolina | 169 |
Rider | 170 |
Army | 171 |
LoyolaMarymount | 172 |
EasternMichigan | 173 |
Drake | 174 |
Cornell | 175 |
IowaU | 176 |
Creighton | 177 |
GeorgiaSouthern | 178 |
Toledo | 179 |
Butler | 180 |
UCSantaBarbara | 181 |
NewHampshireU | 182 |
KennesawState | 183 |
FIU | 184 |
CalPoly | 185 |
HoustonBaptist | 186 |
MississippiState | 187 |
WesternCarolina | 188 |
Oakland | 189 |
Elon | 190 |
Valparaiso | 191 |
Duquesne | 192 |
NorthernColorado | 193 |
IndianaU | 194 |
CentralArkansas | 195 |
NorthernArizona | 196 |
CentralConnecticut | 197 |
LouisianaTech | 198 |
Evansville | 199 |
FloridaAtlantic | 200 |
Fairfield | 201 |
Pittsburgh | 202 |
GrandCanyon | 203 |
MarylandU | 204 |
BoiseState | 205 |
Howard | 206 |
Drexel | 207 |
Lipscomb | 208 |
SouthDakotaState | 209 |
NorthwesternState | 210 |
UCDavis | 211 |
LouisianaLafayette | 212 |
UCRiverside | 213 |
Morehead | 214 |
MaineU | 215 |
RhodeIslandU | 216 |
UMKC | 217 |
StonyBrook | 218 |
UTSA | 219 |
UAB | 220 |
MontanaU | 221 |
HolyCross | 222 |
Lehigh | 223 |
Belmont | 224 |
SanFrancisco | 225 |
Purdue | 226 |
Temple | 227 |
CollegeofCharleston | 228 |
Houston | 229 |
LoyolaMD | 230 |
StMarys | 231 |
LouisianaMonroe | 232 |
Winthrop | 233 |
Detroit | 234 |
KansasState | 235 |
TexasSouthern | 236 |
SIUEdwardsville | 237 |
AustinPeay | 238 |
CharlestonSouthern | 239 |
SetonHall | 240 |
StBonaventure | 241 |
Quinnipiac | 242 |
FresnoState | 243 |
SouthernMississippi | 244 |
Gonzaga | 245 |
NorthernIllinois | 246 |
Niagara | 247 |
Wofford | 248 |
NorthDakotaState | 249 |
Stetson | 250 |
Xavier | 251 |
NorthernKentucky | 252 |
Villanova | 253 |
OhioU | 254 |
TennesseeTech | 255 |
Akron | 256 |
Manhattan | 257 |
JacksonState | 258 |
SacredHeart | 259 |
ArkansasState | 260 |
LoyolaChicago | 261 |
AirForce | 262 |
Davidson | 263 |
WeberState | 264 |
IUPUI | 265 |
Towson | 266 |
TexasCorpusChristi | 267 |
NichollsState | 268 |
Lamar | 269 |
Lafayette | 270 |
EasternKentucky | 271 |
Marist | 272 |
Chattanooga | 273 |
BowlingGreen | 274 |
UNCAsheville | 275 |
McNeeseState | 276 |
HawaiiU | 277 |
GardnerWebb | 278 |
CalStateBakersfield | 279 |
NevadaU | 280 |
JacksonvilleState | 281 |
Presbyterian | 282 |
American | 283 |
SouthernUtah | 284 |
UMBC | 285 |
PortlandState | 286 |
NorthFlorida | 287 |
ColoradoState | 288 |
IndianaState | 289 |
RobertMorris | 290 |
UNOmaha | 291 |
Wagner | 292 |
VermontU | 293 |
YoungstownState | 294 |
PrairieViewA&M | 295 |
SacramentoState | 296 |
Binghamton | 297 |
VMI | 298 |
NewMexicoState | 299 |
IncarnateWord | 300 |
IdahoState | 301 |
Citadel | 302 |
WesternIllinois | 303 |
UMassLowell | 304 |
Canisius | 305 |
TexasRGV | 306 |
UNI | 307 |
MississippiValley | 308 |
Iona | 309 |
IllinoisChicago | 310 |
Pacific | 311 |
ClevelandState | 312 |
AlabamaState | 313 |
MountStMary | 314 |
USCUpstate | 315 |
ArkansasPineBluff | 316 |
SouthDakotaU | 317 |
NJIT | 318 |
GreenBay | 319 |
EasternIllinois | 320 |
Bryant | 321 |
IPFW | 322 |
SouthCarolinaState | 323 |
LongIsland | 324 |
NorthDakotaU | 325 |
DelawareState | 326 |
AlabamaA&M | 327 |
Grambling | 328 |
SouthernU | 329 |
StPeters | 330 |
ChicagoState | 331 |
AlcornState | 332 |
Hampton | 333 |
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